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A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

dealbook.nytimes.com

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Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#171

Post by tedunangst »

jafaku wrote: post #141
brador wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because Bitcoins are relatively easy to buy and very difficult to cash out into real currency. Once enough people see how hard it is to liquidate their Bitcoins back to USD the realization will follow.

News flash: A transaction requires a buyer and a seller. If you bought Bitcoin, someone else sold Bitcoin.

That doesn't account for an imbalance in the number of potential buyers and sellers. It's very easy to buy a house for $100 million. Go to your real estate agent and say "Here's a $100 million. Buy me a house." It is, however, considerably harder to sell a house for $100 million.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#172

Post by adamnemecek »

makerops wrote: post #145
adamnemecek wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"It's good policy to expect that a govt. can do anything, unless presented with evidence to the contrary." WTF does this sentence even mean. Evidence to the contrary that the gov't can't do anything? Could you give an example of such a piece of evidence? Also TIL Disney dollar is against the constitution.

But, it can. Sometimes it's hand is slapped, and sometimes it isn't, but the government has proven its willingness and ability to violate everything in the constitution on multiple occasions.

We are talking about laws here, right? Not like say single events where the gov't did something unconstitutional (not that these are ok, but we are talking about a ban on using bitcoins as a currency, which would have to be a law). So which law do you think currently undeniably violates the constitution?

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#173

Post by mrb »

This article is posted on DealBook, a financial-news website founded by Andrew Ross Sorkin [1]. This person has always had an anti-Bitcoin stance, probably because he clearly does not understand Bitcoin at all (see him interview the Winklevoss twins about Bitcoin: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oGuKEazS5o ) and people tend to be dubious or scared by something they don't understand.

[1] http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Ross_Sorkin

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#174

Post by tedunangst »

kdeforche wrote: post #132
fleitz wrote: post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think you understand even if the vendor accepts bitcoins, and even if I bring my laptop I still can't buy anything in under 5 minutes. https://blockchain.info/charts/avg-confirmation-time

Yes you can. You do not necessarily need a confirmation if you are willing to take a small risk (and a vendor accepts risks much bigger than that if he's in business).

Considering the extent to which cigarette vendors around here keep their merchandise locked up, I don't think they're willing to take on a lot of "I hope these bitcoins are legit" risk.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#175

Post by aianus »

kens wrote: post #156

My prediction is that bitcoins are midway through a short-lived bubble and then rapidly fall to approximately 0, and in a few years people will look back with the disbelief now reserved for pets.com. The hype - get in right now and get rich, or you'll miss out and kick yourself - reminds me of 1999. My in-laws were talking about bitcoins yesterday, so bitcoins are getting the attention of the public at large; I take…

I wish there was a reputable market for shorting bitcoins. It'd be nice to earn some interest on my long position while providing the naysayers a chance to bet against it. It'd also help with the volatility.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#176

Post by coldtea »

GhotiFish wrote: post #127
brador wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because Bitcoins are relatively easy to buy and very difficult to cash out into real currency. Once enough people see how hard it is to liquidate their Bitcoins back to USD the realization will follow.

?? Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them. It's just happening now because some people want into this environment.

>Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them

Yes, unless you want to, you know, buy something...

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#177

Post by aianus »

Cort3z wrote: post #106

Bitcoin won't fail because the criminal underground have accepted it. It is the perfect way to pay for drugs or other illegal activities. No way to stop, no way to trace. They reduce the risk of acting out their criminal affairs. They no longer need to move money across boarders, thus basically halving the risk of smuggling things. Power to the people, right?

I wonder if the price of drugs will go down as Bitcoin becomes more liquid and/or anonymous.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#178

Post by stevewilhelm »

mindstab wrote: post #149
stevewilhelm wrote: post #128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

eBay, Amazon, and IRS don't need Bitcoins, they can set any exchange rate they want. If enough goods and service providers followed suit, current speculators would have to take a hilarious loss to buy anything.

they can sure set them, and then no one would use them. do you not understand money? what are you, the owner of 100btc going to do: a) buy $100usd worth of goods at ebay directly b) cash out at a proper exchange for $100,000usd, then buy $100usb worth of goods on ebay and have $99,900usd left over? or cash out ONE btc for $1000usd, buy $100usd of goods and have $900 usd left over AND 99btc? How do you expect any even…

In any financial exchange, both parties, the buyer and seller, need to come to agreement on a price.

Given the fact that current BTC to USD exchange volume is fairly small, it wouldn't take that many large global goods and service providers pegging their BTC/USD exchange rate to cause the speculation market to collapse.

Those that recently bought their Bitcoins at $900 would sell below the current high price to realize their gain and avoid a potential loss, then those who bought at $800 would follow suit, and so on.

In very short order, Bitcoins could be trading in single digits.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#180

Post by pathy »

GhotiFish wrote: post #127
brador wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's because Bitcoins are relatively easy to buy and very difficult to cash out into real currency. Once enough people see how hard it is to liquidate their Bitcoins back to USD the realization will follow.

?? Bitcoins are a currency, there's no need to convert them. It's just happening now because some people want into this environment.

>there's no need to convert them.

Have you tried paying your taxes in Bitcoin? The IRS (or regional equivalent) is not going to accept bitcoin any time soon and they will want you to pay taxes on, for example, profits. There is a need to convert, don't believe otherwise.

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