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A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

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41–50 of 431 posts

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#41

I think Bitcoin will succeed like gold has succeeded--as a highly liquid tradable commodity, which can be used for transactions as a form of barter. It's already succeeding in this way. It won't succeed as a currency because it can't maintain a stable value--again, just like gold.

So your choices are to maintain cash resertves in USD and take a guaranteed 2% inflation loss on the chin, or keep it in Bitcoin with unpredictable, but upward trending movement (as coins are removed from the pool with loss, death, etc.). I'm not sure that decision is so clear-cut.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Isn't this pretty damn hard as well? Nah. If all the govt. does is says that every merchant cannot accept bitcoin for transactions, that's enough to render every bitcoin market black.

I don't think that the gov't has the power to say that.

[Citation needed].

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#43
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is gold issued by governments?

No, and it failed as a currency.

I don't think gold failed as a currency, I could pretty much go anywhere in the world with a bar of gold and exchange it for currency to buy whatever I want. It is still a universal currency, although not an everyday currency.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#44
post #17

He is essentially giving the chartalist theory of money. Money cannot arise except through the fiat of the state. Chartalists hate the Mengerian theory on the origin of money because it posits that money arises as a market phenomena. Eventually the state co-opted money, but that does not mean money arose because of the state. The emergence of bitcoin is a thorn in the side to chartalists. We can't really go back and…

Inflation is a separate issue. That comes from the nature of money, not its source. You can have a decentralized, distributed inflationary currency. See Freicoin for example.

Inflation definitely isn't a separate issue. It's a fundamental issue in the topic of currencies and money, as in deflation.

Inflation is the expansion of money supply. Once bitcoin reaches full supply, by definition there can be no further inflation from bitcoin. There can be price fluctuations in the value of bitcoin, but not inflation. It's necessary to differentiate between prices going up / down, as opposed to inflation / deflation.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#45

He is essentially giving the chartalist theory of money. Money cannot arise except through the fiat of the state. Chartalists hate the Mengerian theory on the origin of money because it posits that money arises as a market phenomena. Eventually the state co-opted money, but that does not mean money arose because of the state. The emergence of bitcoin is a thorn in the side to chartalists. We can't really go back and…

That's not my reading; I believe what he is getting at (similarly brought up in Graeber's book) is that when the government controls a large enough share of the economy, the sine qua non of "money" is that you can pay taxes with it. That doesn't require anything about the historical origins of money.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#47
"After all, no bank or bitcoin-emitter can be as public-minded as a government..."

Ahem. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe

You can't slap a sticker saying "public-minded!" on a government, and expect it to therefore be public-minded, any more than you can slap an "environmentally friendly!" sticker on a coal power plant and expect it to stop polluting.

"What kind of role, if any, should a government take in supervising a parent's choice of genes for their child? Could parents deliberately choose genes for schizophrenia? If enhancing a child's intelligence is expensive, should governments help ensure access, to prevent the emergence of a cognitive elite? You can propose various institutions to answer these policy questions—for example, that private charities should provide financial aid for intelligence enhancement—but the obvious next question is, "Will this institution be effective?" If we rely on product liability lawsuits to prevent corporations from building harmful nanotech, will that really work?

I know someone whose answer to every one of these questions is "Liberal democracy!" That's it. That's his answer. If you ask the obvious question of "How well have liberal democracies performed, historically, on problems this tricky?" or "What if liberal democracy does something stupid?" then you're an autocrat, or libertopian, or otherwise a very very bad person. No one is allowed to question democracy.

I once called this kind of thinking "the divine right of democracy". But it is more precise to say that "Democracy!" functioned for him as a semantic stopsign. If anyone had said to him "Turn it over to the Coca-Cola corporation!", he would have asked the obvious next questions: "Why? What will the Coca-Cola corporation do about it? Why should we trust them? Have they done well in the past on equally tricky problems?""

http://lesswrong.com/lw/it/semantic_stopsigns/

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#48
It probably will, but that doesn't matter

Other crypto-currencies already exist and there will only be more. Paul Graham was right when he pointed out that "hackers love it"—that key point means people are going to continue to evolve the general idea. If deflation proves to always be a serious problem, I'm sure hackers will build in something to solve that. Anonymity is a problem, so Zerocoin is tackling that. And Litecoin tackles other problems.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#49
"and it could easily become valueless if users lose faith." About as easily as religion losing its grip if believers lost faith... This can happen, but not "easily". "An object at rest stays at rest and an object in motion stays in motion", is what I'd like to think about this.

Re: A Prediction: Bitcoin Is Doomed to Fail

#50
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Also, with gold, there is intrinsic value beyond the monetary - jewelry use, or in these moderns days in electronics. That provides a value floor. Bitcoin doesn't have that.

Nope. Gold is used in limited quantities for plating pins in electronics, covering space helmets, and probably a few other things. It's really not that valuable for getting shit done and need a lot of it type of stuff.

If by limited quantities you mean "about 400 tons a year" (and that's not counting dentistry or jewelry) then yes.

11,666,666 troy ounces

$15,108,332,470 at today's prices.

If you do count jewelry, increase those figured by approx. an order of magnitude.

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