Live data from Hacker News

Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

blog.baugues.com

131–140 of 211 posts

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#131
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Stop patting yourself on the back. Seriously . Because obviously, no other job requires critical thinking and learning continually . These are "skills" that are in no way related to programming, and do not explain an inclination towards CS rather than any other science or the myriad of other academic disciplines. And even outside academia, not every job is just that of the "sheeple" who "mindlessly" "slug away" in th…

Arrogant, maybe, but there is at least a kernel of truth. I've done a lot of trades. I'm not a master level craftsman or anything, but I can build a house to code using just my current knowledge. The only thing I've never done is masonry, but I'm told it's not too tough. So that includes carpentry, electric, plumbing, fine wood working if you want things like molding and wainscoting, and more. I'm a very good but not…

> The reason we are currently enjoying an alternative employment universe, insulated from the rest of the economy, is that the mass of unemployed people predominantly couldn't break into this field if they wanted to.

Art major, advertising minor, employed as a Software Engineer right here.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#132
So, I don't know if people remember the early 2000s, but it wasn't a terribly great time to be a programmer. All the jobs were going out to India. However, I learned a very important lesson. You have to be competitive. If you were someone who couldn't see past cobol, you did become obsolete. While programmers in India are still relatively less expensive than their counterparts in the US, top programmers are still sought after and make significantly more than the rest.

Sure the barrier to entry is "low", but it isn't that low. I think one of the main problem is, calling someone a programmer is an extremely "broad" term. I know some who can barely string together a few lines of PHP code and other who design and build complex systems which run the world and improve people's lives. If you're a programmer who just "codes" HTML, which you learned over one weekend and haven't take the time to improve your craft, sure you may be working now, but you're likely to get wiped out easily since the barrier to entry into your line of work would be very low.

In a sense the OP is right in that programmers shouldn't be complacent. I know a lot of C coders who have serious BS ego issues and refuse to do anything but C and then complain that they can't find work after being laid off.

BUT, I'm not shivering in my boots due to Stripe and Wordpress. Any programmer knows there's a bunch of crap that's tedious work which can be automated away. The good ones automate them and improve their craft and focus their energies on building better systems. I think that even with Wordpress, Stripe etc, there's a lot of room form improvements in the way we develop.

I recall spending days getting a dialog box UI just right in MFC. I thought it was stupid then and after using C#, never used MFC to build a dialog box ever again. Result wasn't that I'm out of a job. I actually have been able to produce a lot more. Programmers are in ever more demand than before. Sure the field will probably get tapped at some point, but to say it's going to be due to "automation" which has been a staple in our profession since the very beginning is simply inane.

Going with the autoworkers analogy, there are people who turn wrenches and people who figure out six sigma. If you're doing something as simple as turning a wrench, sure, you will get easily replaced by robots. But if you're innovative and competitive, you'll be significantly harder to replace and you can probably find applications for your skills in many more places. There are certain skills you just can't automate away so easily.

I would argue that programmers/developers will have jobs long past even doctors (maybe). Repetitive tasks can easily be automated away, creativity and innovation on the other hand aren't quite as easy. (FYI, the reason all programming jobs aren't just in India is because the US still rocks when it comes to creativity and innovation, based on my own experiences as an employer/manager and in speaking with others in the same position who have programming staff worldwide)

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have at least 10 friends who are in the technology industry but don't know how to program. Every single one of them have been saying for years how they want to learn. None of them have. It takes more sacrifice than you think to learn new skills.

That barrier is dropping. Years ago becoming a developer meant going back to school for another 4-year degree. Expensive, time-consuming, and necessary for most employers to take you seriously. You could self-train, but having seen the insides of recruitment processes at most companies... that's a laughable thought. For all the wankery that comes out of our mouths about meritocracies, the vast majority of software co…

>> The level of sacrifice required is dropping, and it's dropping like a rock.

What have changed , just ruby on rails type frameworks , or something beyond ?

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aren't you guys using the economic definition of 'best' as in best = brings_in_the_most_money_per_unit_of_time_expended

They are. This would lead to the conclusion that Linus Torvalds is fairly middle of the road, etc.

Just because Linus isn't actually selling his work directly, it doesn't follow that the output of his labour is economically worthless, it's just harder to measure.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#135
A point repeated here has been "keep your skills flexible." A lesson we could learn that would improve upon the auto industry disaster would be to consider the "product line" itself. The auto industry was notoriously monofilamental in its innovation, as its CEOs preferred it. Their conservative operation proved a great long-term investment, with an eventual crumbling down hitting hard in the 1980s and hardly recovering.

Innovation represents hours sweated and is always rewarded. So far the computer science industry has been well-motivated to continue innovation, as computation becomes one of the world's standard utilities. But once it's all up and running _and_standardized, it will only take a smaller number of people to run it, like the power grid, water supply, phone system, etc.

It is all like plumbing, and like plumbers, there are household ones for household needs like web storefront/office/communications desks and industrial plumbers, but most of the unique, research-y plumbers are in a small, elite group who are innovating on their own and sharing their work with the public and are well-compensated. I think that's the effect we'll see, a narrowing or thinning of the industry somewhat, but it definitely won't settle until after use-cases are standardized and we're still a zillion miles from that.

Imagine NASA doing a shuttle lunch with everyone from the control room at home in their backyards cooking BBQ with their family :) Cell phone in one hand, spatula in the other.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#136
post #7

Hold on a minute. You can't discuss labor markets without discussing productivity. In the heyday of the automotive industry, the best auto worker in the world produced about the same output as the average auto worker. Maybe they messed up less, but being a genius autoworker didn't let you tower head and shoulders above the competition, because car factories are designed with auto workers as interchangeable parts. We'…

And this also means that developers in this case are evolving, we are technologists. Which is more like the car designers. And these guys are still around and getting payed a lot, and probably will be for a long time, designing spaceships. Software engineering, which also requires original thought, also will never disappear. So I would say the original authors analogy is dead wrong.

I'm sure CAD software made lots of car designers redundant. What most people in our industry seem to not realize is the intense power accumulation laws at work. 1 Designer can now do the work that 50 could in the 50s. All that wealth is now going to one person (or whoever captures the wealth they would otherwise generate -- in this case car co. shareholders and customers).

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I have at least 10 friends who are in the technology industry but don't know how to program. Every single one of them have been saying for years how they want to learn. None of them have. It takes more sacrifice than you think to learn new skills.

That barrier is dropping. Years ago becoming a developer meant going back to school for another 4-year degree. Expensive, time-consuming, and necessary for most employers to take you seriously. You could self-train, but having seen the insides of recruitment processes at most companies... that's a laughable thought. For all the wankery that comes out of our mouths about meritocracies, the vast majority of software co…

The biggest barrier is making the choice to learn a new skill - which has been a huge barrier for humans since the beginning of time.

For example, learning Spanish would be a huge asset where I'm from (Texas). Hardly anybody does it, however, since it is hard to learn a new language. A new website that cuts the time to learn a new language from 6 months to 3 months wouldn't cut it for the vast majority of people.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#138
post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arrogant, maybe, but there is at least a kernel of truth. I've done a lot of trades. I'm not a master level craftsman or anything, but I can build a house to code using just my current knowledge. The only thing I've never done is masonry, but I'm told it's not too tough. So that includes carpentry, electric, plumbing, fine wood working if you want things like molding and wainscoting, and more. I'm a very good but not…

> The reason we are currently enjoying an alternative employment universe, insulated from the rest of the economy, is that the mass of unemployed people predominantly couldn't break into this field if they wanted to. Art major, advertising minor, employed as a Software Engineer right here.

You aren't the mass of unemployed people.

I, too, find myself assuming that if something is easy/achievable for me, it would be easy/achievable for anyone.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#139
post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software?

I don't know about you, but I've sacrificed an incalculable amount of positive social interaction sitting in front of these damned screens. My programming skills weren't spontaneously conferred upon me, as a kid I'd spend weeks at time building foolishly impossible-to-complete applications that I'd eventually leave to rot as I hopped onto the next cool programming technique that I finally understood the power of. There's a considerable amount of my time not spent interacting with people I enjoy, even today, because I am so compelled to build programs. Time spent in the pursuit of understanding these gadgets is the sacrifice made and the barrier to entry.

Though, I do believe automation will catch up with developers eventually; there will inevitably come a point where general purpose programming experiences low demand as the explosion of software begins to cover the majority of conceivable business use cases.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#140
post #87

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arrogant, maybe, but there is at least a kernel of truth. I've done a lot of trades. I'm not a master level craftsman or anything, but I can build a house to code using just my current knowledge. The only thing I've never done is masonry, but I'm told it's not too tough. So that includes carpentry, electric, plumbing, fine wood working if you want things like molding and wainscoting, and more. I'm a very good but not…

My comment did not make a direct comparison between a craftsman and a programmer in terms of absolute difficulty and height of entrance, and neither do I claim an oblique equality in terms of capability for everybody. What I do question, however, is the grandparent's insistence that critical thinking and continues learning are what makes a programmer special. I agree that more mathematically inclined people will be b…

I'm not convinced by either side. But I find the article reasoning totally hilarious: be careful with that supply flooding that has never happened, even with monetary incentives, but that could happen any moment!

To be honest, I think (and that's a very personal belief based on personal anecdote) that more people can learn programming than it's thought. But it needs much hand-holding, determination and means than it's reasonably expected.

So (again: a gut feeling, so take it FWIW) the barriers might not be in people's brains, but do exist anyway. And the article does nothing to disprove the common wisdom (IIRC backed by some empirical evidence) that only so little people can learn programming.

Post reply on HN