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Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

blog.baugues.com

51–60 of 211 posts

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#51
post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

> I'm told that CS enrollments are now at record highs

Given the high dropout rate of anyone attempting to learn programming, I don't think enrollment rate is good metric.

> What's the barrier to entry that's keeping us from being flooded with supply?

Programming is hard; really f'ing hard, for most people because it requires critical thinking continually and learning continually.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#52
post #42
post #18

Programming is fundamentally different from most other occupations. We are actually building factories - automating manual tasks. If developer jobs start to become scarce, we'll be nearing a situation where there are no jobs at all for anyone. So, as a programmer, you're never at risk of falling into poverty.

So, as a programmer, you're never at risk of falling into poverty. I'm guessing you aren't old enough to remember the dot com bust then...

I wasn't working then, but from my understanding (might be wrong), it was 'html coders' that had difficulty finding jobs, not actual coders.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#53

I don't always seize my means of production. But when I do, I close it, stick it in a case, and put it in my backpack.

To follow up with something less pithy and more thoughtful: I'm from near Detroit. Auto work is a bad comparison, because auto workers need millions of dollars worth of equipment to do their job. Software developers are more like the film industry. Big operations need millions in equipment etc, but the individual actors, well, they just have to know how to act. Given that software as a service solves a problem the fi…

Plus, anyone can jump into the place of an auto-worker with very minimal training. That will never be the case for programmers.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#54
post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

> I'm told that CS enrollments are now at record highs Given the high dropout rate of anyone attempting to learn programming, I don't think enrollment rate is good metric. > What's the barrier to entry that's keeping us from being flooded with supply? Programming is hard; really f'ing hard, for most people because it requires critical thinking continually and learning continually.

Stop patting yourself on the back. Seriously.

Because obviously, no other job requires critical thinking and learning continually. These are "skills" that are in no way related to programming, and do not explain an inclination towards CS rather than any other science or the myriad of other academic disciplines. And even outside academia, not every job is just that of the "sheeple" who "mindlessly" "slug away" in their "boring" and "thoughtless" jobs.

If you do a job for a long while, chances are you will have to adapt to new developments. Take craftsmen for example. Every year, new areas become part of their trade, from new building materials to new requirements, from new technologies to new standards. The electrician of today might also have to deal with laying network cables, with photovoltaics etc. Carpenters deal with new materials for insulation, new structural possibilities and requirements etc. etc. Secretaries and office workers moved from typewriters to PCs, from OS to OS and often from program to program.

I know it is particularly popular in IT to foam out of the mouth about the "clueless" average users who do not get the simple feature X or Y of a given software, but at the same time, the same people will happily admit their own inaptitude in many other professional areas.

There have been numerous threads on pg's "founders' accents" remarks, and there, all of a sudden, it is the most normal thing in the world that not everybody finds the same things equally easy, important or possible. Yet when it comes to programming, there obviously exists no such thing, rather, there are naturals, those gifted enough for this divine trade, and then there are all the others. The average user, with stress on the average as opposed to the extraordinary.

I am sorry that this rant is directed directly at you, but I find the sheer arrogance of your two one-line remarks baffling.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#55
post #52
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So, as a programmer, you're never at risk of falling into poverty. I'm guessing you aren't old enough to remember the dot com bust then...

I wasn't working then, but from my understanding (might be wrong), it was 'html coders' that had difficulty finding jobs, not actual coders.

I personally knew a number of competent programmers who ran into extreme financial difficulty in that time period. However they didn't like to talk about it then or now, so I can't give names.

They were, of course, a drop in the bucket compared to the number of people who had no business calling themselves programmers having trouble. But there were still lots of them.

How do I know this? When I went to move from New York to the west coast in 2003, I took the precaution of taking a month to travel up down down the coast, so I could meet with people I knew and respected from online interactions. What I learned was that at the time, Portland was a disaster zone, Seattle almost as bad, Silicon Valley still had a huge hangover but was slowly on the road to recovery, and I should have no problem landing a job in Los Angeles. I therefore moved to Los Angeles and landed a job in about a week.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#56
post #6

It's already happening. As a freelancer, I often find people who want their "corporate" site built in WordPress for less money than what they would pay to a car mechanic for a similar amount of time worked. Sames goes for Magento and similar platforms.

If you are talking about the front end of a corporate site then sure, you can do that in WP. Don't think many would though; maybe for the grocery shop, but other than that?

Even relatively small businesses in my neighborhood with not much cash to spend start out with a 'cheap WP' site, but then they want reservation systems integrated with their CRM. They want a live chat system. Integrated with their CRM. They want their reservation system connected to online partners. Etc. In a few months after starting out with this site, WP or anything else is no longer relevant; existing solutions need to be integrated manually anyway and custom solutions made by, for instance, the CRM/reservation system which do not use WP are a better fit. At a much higher price. And people pay it, because custom integration is even more expensive.

Even with all it's plugins, WP is only a good solution if you like to do a lot of work manually or you want to spend a lot of money having every plugin and external package nicely integrated. And no inexperienced programmers is going to bring that to a good end without landing on reddit/hn as being responsible for making some epic security holes along the way.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#57

I've been using this metaphor for a couple years now, and I think that it can be taken further. Developers are like the car mechanics because they build the thing. There are an increasing number of tools being created to make developers lives easier, and as such, the bar to entry lowers. This is not the only career in computer science, though. Just like the auto industry, we need research to push the whole field forw…

I'd argue that if you are going to focus on keeping abreast of research, you should focus on things that have much more obvious applications than various niche topics in programming language theory. For example, advances in machine vision, computer graphics, machine learning, and distributed systems seem to be much more meaty than category theory and lambda calculus for ensuring you do not get left behind in the next big wave of innovation.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#58
The thing about development, and it certainly may slow down eventually, especially as Moore's law staggers to a halt and broadband peaks, is that no matter what I build, everybody always, always, always wants more. Every framework I ever developed or integrated was met with a doubling of people's expectations. Make it better, make it slicker, give me this feature, et cetera. I think we've got between 40 and 50 years before we can even suggest hitting saturation with our current technical capabilities.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#59
post #22

As usual for HN, all of the most upvoted replies disagree with the article. Let me play devil's advocate and not disagree. Sure, the analogy isn't perfect, but what happens if we take the idea seriously? [1] Isn't it amazing, the lack of sacrifice necessary to make fat stacks of cash writing software? Even when law school was thought of as a golden ticket, it was a lottery, and to win, you had to sacrifice your perso…

How does personal sacrifice correlate with market price for your skills? Maybe it's progress when someone with a liberal arts degree (and presumably some programming experience) can get competing developer job offers based on his skills. I agree with your sentiment about the most-upvoted posts but I don't see this as a counterargument.

  How does personal sacrifice correlate with market 
  price for your skills?
Requiring personal sacrifice (like medical training does) limits the supply of labour, and limiting supply drives up prices.

Re: Developers are the autoworkers of our generation

#60
Web developers are the COBOL developers of this generation.

Software engineering at its core is a universal skill whose applications will almost certainly have a shelf life of hundreds of years, though the various particular demand curves for specific applications of those skills is sure to vary wildly over time. Now would be an advisable time to start expanding your horizons if your core skill set revolves around creating web applications.

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