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Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

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241–250 of 311 posts

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#241
post #5

Brilliant move, maybe, unless he was manipulated by the Chinese. It is very interesting that the allegation that the NSA has been hacking into Chinese systems came out at the time when the US and China are meeting and Obama is trying to admonish the Chinese on hacking. It would be interesting to explore if Edward Snowden has any handler. And how exactly he chose Hong Kong and decided to reveal that the NSA has been h…

It is "very interesting" in the sense that Snowden may have realised that strategically talking to Chinese press and leaking information that would be likely to be looked upon favorably by the Chinese government at this time would be likely to be beneficial to his chances of avoiding extradition in the future.

I'm not sure what you are trying to imply - the choice and timing of that particular leak would seem to be a logical choice once he'd chosen somewhere to go.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#243
post #239
post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ooof, kind of, sort of, maybe? I can see the argument, at a very high level but I don't think it survives even a cursory examination of the details, which are - by going to HK he's walking into a very convoluted situation the outcome of which neither he nor anyone else can really predict. And he's basically betting that all twists and turns of the various intermediate outcomes will go his way. This seems incredibly r…

Where else would you suggest? Most European countries have to a smaller or greater extent been complicit in illegal CIA rendition flights over the last decade and/or are extradition-happy or have already made it clear he's not a desirable person to host (UK telling airlines not to allow him onto flights). Poorer countries or countries with unstable governments provide plenty of options to bribe someone to pick him up…

I'd suggest he should have quit his job, made his disclosures and stayed put. Look at the three people in the linked interview - while it's undisputed that they've suffered great disruptions to their careers and lives in general, all three are free men, giving interviews to a national US newspaper. Edward Snowden is a fugitive in some strange limbo largely of his own making which he appears, inexplicably, quite blithely set on making worse.

As to the drone strikes, I was replying to the other commenter who seemed to think drone strikes or some sort or intervention by the US military is a realistic risk Snowden faces. I'd put 'covert CIA assassination' in the same bucket and I don't really know how to put this politely but this is, in my mind, tinfoilhattery.

He's facing a big fat criminal indictment - there are probably people at the DOJ working on it who didn't get to go home this weekend after he started talking about entirely unrelated (to his civil liberties claims) details of US intelligence operations. There's probably nothing the US government would like more than to see him tried on criminal charges in open, civilian court - it's a slam dunk of a case, by this point. There's nothing whatsoever to be gained by killing him.

Once indicted, I think kidnapping is at least a plausible concern - there are documented cases of US Marshals pursuing people wanted by the US courts overseas - with varying degrees of success and with or without the cooperation of local authorities. I can even think of a couple of cases pre-war-on-terror military interventions as part of efforts to apprehend wanted persons. The Achille Lauro hijackers come to mind - and even they, while being actual terrorists and actual murderers, ended up being prosecuted in Italy and serving time in Italian prisons. But again, Snowden could have trivially avoided this entire line of unpleasant possibilities by simply not getting on a plane to Hong Kong.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#244
post #79

I live in Hong Kong, and can verify that it is absolutely a technologist's paradise and an extremely easy place to move around in. Phones are incredibly cheap; the cheapest functional Android knockoff smartphones will run you about $50-80 (all prices in USD for simplicity), maybe less if you get it in Kowloon. "Burner"-style phones can be as low as $8. SIM cards are essentially free (usually about $8-10 deposit on th…

yeah to cut straight to the chase a special administrative region of the people's republic of china is actually more free than the USA.

Yeh right as long as you don't annoy the powers that be it is

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#245
post #219

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ooof, kind of, sort of, maybe? I can see the argument, at a very high level but I don't think it survives even a cursory examination of the details, which are - by going to HK he's walking into a very convoluted situation the outcome of which neither he nor anyone else can really predict. And he's basically betting that all twists and turns of the various intermediate outcomes will go his way. This seems incredibly r…

I guess my point is that there would be severe ramifications if the US deployed its military to retrieve Snowden within Chinese territory. Whether they'd do it or not is not the issue - Snowden is a whistle blower who's had a peak inside the system, and is paranoid (perhaps justifiably given what he was leaking) about his safety. We're only trying to explain his choice, not whether it was a good one. edit: also, the…

I don't want to bury you in some dreary repeat wall of text so I sort of combine-replied to you in the response to the upthread poster.

As to the quality of his choices, I think that's the actual interesting thing - not whether we can come up with some semi-plausible theory for them. Are his choices a part of some grand strategy (like the article we're discussing seems to suggest) or are they haphazard? To me, the evidence so far seems to strongly point to 'haphazard', which is very bad news both for him personally and for the cause of civil liberties which he claims as his motivation.

I'd love to be wrong about this but not quite to the point where I leave my critical faculties in my other pants.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#246
post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I haven't seen any articles discuss a major issue: his immigration status. If he's on a visitor/business visa he likely only has 6-12 months in the country. If he's there as a tourist, 90 days. If he overstays his visa, he can be arrested and deported.

By which time he can probably get a Visa somewhere else and rinse and repeat, shuffling between two secure locations and flight paths. Once extradition proceedings have begun, he can no longer be deported. Deportation and removal orders still have to go through the court system though: http://www.hkhrm.org.hk/english/reports/eimrev96.html#Deport...

  shuffling between two secure locations and flight paths
That would still be observable and therefore risky.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#247
post #161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

yeah to cut straight to the chase a special administrative region of the people's republic of china is actually more free than the USA.

Dunno about "free", but what really bothers me is that someone decided to seek asylum from the US. US used to be the gold standard in democracy and justice.

The US has only ever been the gold standard to itself, it's a nice story to tell the kids as you tuck them in for the night, but it's just not true.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#248
This still doesn't explain why he didn't choose a country with no possibility of extradition like, uh, any of these: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extradition_law_in_the_United_S...

They may not be technological paradises, but it's pretty hard (nearly impossible) to be extradited to the US from any of them.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#249

This still doesn't explain why he didn't choose a country with no possibility of extradition like, uh, any of these: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extradition_law_in_the_United_S... They may not be technological paradises, but it's pretty hard (nearly impossible) to be extradited to the US from any of them.

He did. China is on that list. Hong Kong is China.

Re: Choosing Hong Kong Is a Brilliant Move by Edward Snowden

#250

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You need to read more history. Without commenting on Snowden, I think the US is a substantially freer nation then it was in the time of MLK.

I wouldn't say that the US is substantially more free today than it was then.

> I wouldn't say that the US is substantially more free today than it was then.

It's not something that needs a lot of thought if you consider that the current president allegedly personally authorises deadly drone strikes even on american citizens (on "Terror Tuesdays"), while Nixon had to resign over Watergate.

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