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“The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

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Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#181

I just drove a Tesla Model S last weekend. Here are my perceptions, as I was SUPER curious about the car before I drove it: Pros: 1) The drive is AMAZING. The car is quiet, it accelerates amazingly, and the regenerative braking is really cool. 2) It feels like the future. The huge computer screen is cool (but distracting, you can go on the internet at anytime). 3) The ability to get software updates all the time is c…

That's not a con for the car, that's a con for living in a condo. The list of things that are impractical for someone living in a condo building could fill a warehouse.

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#182
post #119

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Pretty much exactly what I was thinking. The points about charging apply to any electric vehicle, though, and that's where I have trouble seeing electric cars really taking off. The Tesla approach seems great if your only use case is up to 100 mile drives from home to somewhere else and back again the same day to a home where you can easily plug the car in (essentially the typical car commuter). That's got to be a re…

>That's got to be a reasonable market now According to NHTS data, the mean Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) per day for Americans is 33 miles. The median is 22 miles. With numbers this low, and steadily decreasing, electric vehicles are viable for nearly all drivers. When small electric cars are comparable priced (taking into account lower cost of ownership) to their gas-burning competitors, things will really start to c…

"Range" can be confusing though....how does range compare on an open freeway vs stand still traffic?

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#183
post #28
post #21

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You're only focusing on the "electric car" part. By all accounts, the rest of the car is an amazing package, even without the electric motor. I think the question is why was Tesla able to push the Model S so far ahead of the current industry in those other respects?

It's because Tesla makes an extra $7.5K from each car via the federal tax credit and an extra $70M each quarter selling ZEV credits. Without these they would not be profitable. So they have more money to apply to the fit and finish of the car than luxury manufacturers which don't make an electric. It's because Tesla makes an extra $7.5K from each car via the federal tax credit and an extra $70M each quarter selling Z…

Not to mention, I bet the electric drivetrain is much simpler than existing internal combustion engines. Modern gasoline engines are nothing less than engineering marvels; Tesla, on the other hand, probably gets to devote proportionally more money and effort to other aspects of the car.

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#184
post #59
post #42

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There's something to be said about a driven leader pursuing a vision. The other good example would be Apple + Steve Jobs. For example, I know that with Ford Motor Company, as an example, the Ford family has a heavy hand in the top-level management (i.e. previous CEOs have been kicked out 'unofficially' because they didn't follow what the Ford family wanted or didn't live up to their expectations). That kind of stuff…

Agree re: Apple + Jobs It's interesting that you bring up Ford. Of the big American auto companies, the only ones who have been putting out product I'm not just remotely interested in, but actually interested in, is Ford. IMHO, decent looking product, good value, mileage ratings look good, interior design is decent, etc.

I agree, and there's another interesting parallel: Ford has their own version of Jony Ive in J Mays. I've often wondered why GM doesn't back a tractor-trailer full of money in Mays's driveway to switch sides; in my opinion, GM never found the magic again after Harley Earl died.

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#185
post #39

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The classic "Innovator's Dilemma" attempts to address this - the idea here would be that electric cars are disruptive technology, one which otherwise good management practices more or less prevent market encumbents successfully exploiting. Read the book, I highly recommend it if you're interested by these kinds of questions!

But electric cars aren't a disruptive technology. The only thing that might qualify as disruptive about Tesla is their direct to customer sales model, and I have a hard time seeing how they'll get around the entrenched interests there. The Model S is by all accounts an excellent car, and I want one, but I am bearish on Tesla the company.

What about gas stations and oil infrastructure? Why fill up at a store when you do it over night at home? Also, Service stations will be disrupted. Electric cars require much less maintenance, no oil changes, timing belts, or transmissions.

Those things alone have a hell of a broad impact on American life.

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#186
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>>But what market isn't being served that the Model S can waltz in on? It's an M5 with a linear torque curve that you can't take on long trips. Yeah, except unlike an M5, it is a high-tech and environmentally friendly vehicle.

I think you might be underestimating the technological sophistication of a twin-turbo V8 that develops 550bhp at 7000rpm, in a cabin so quiet that they have to pipe artificial engine noise in -- but set that aside. The Model S doesn't do anything that an M5 can't, save charge from the mains. That's not insignificant, by any stretch, but it also seems to me less like a different class of thing than a serious, big-time…

I'm not underestimating the technology used in the M5. If anything, though, the M5's technology is the one that I would describe as "incremental." They took an internal combustion engine, the mechanics of which have been well-understood for over a century now, and improved it incrementally until it became a twin-turbo V8 that has a ton of horsepower.

Contrast that to the Tesla, which has been engineered from the ground up to use batteries to power it. The car is a technological marvel, even compared to cars like the M5. And this translates to a driving experience that is different enough from ICE cars* that it makes it a disruptive tech.

*instant acceleration, no engine noise, real-time graphical feedback about the car's systems, etc.

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#187
post #154

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you might be underestimating the technological sophistication of a twin-turbo V8 that develops 550bhp at 7000rpm, in a cabin so quiet that they have to pipe artificial engine noise in -- but set that aside. The Model S doesn't do anything that an M5 can't, save charge from the mains. That's not insignificant, by any stretch, but it also seems to me less like a different class of thing than a serious, big-time…

I think this is pretty much correct, but Tesla only has to carve out a niche in each market it enters to be successful. They will enter a high volume market soon. Also, the EV feature comes with side benefits of decreased weight and size. For smaller cars this will be a bigger win as comparable gas powered cars have less space to use on passenger satisfaction. So you're missing that in your comparison. How much inter…

Tesla being successful and Tesla disrupting the car industry are two different things.

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#188
post #165
post #74

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$1B is roughly the GAAP losses for TSLA since they went public. I think that in order to resell ZEV credits more than 13% of a manufacturer's cars must be electric, which is not true of any other luxury manufacturer.

That doesn't add up with this: http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=tsla+earnings But, that may not be GAAP. Where did you find that total?

You can go to google finance: https://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATSLA&fstype=ii...

And then select 'Annual', 'Balance Sheet', and then look at the line item for "Retained Earnings (Accumulated Deficit)"

Or alternatively, from TSLA's 2012 10-K:

"We incurred a net loss of $396.2 million for the year ended December 31, 2012. In addition, we have accumulated net losses of $1,065.6 million from our inception through December 31, 2012. We have had net losses in each quarter since our inception."

Source: Page 31 Here: http://ir.teslamotors.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1193125-13-...

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#189
post #168

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Music hath nothing over Ferrari V12 engines. May I present the sounds of a Ferrari Formula 1 V12 from 1994 . Turn up your speakers. Get a hair brush ready. All of your body hair will stand up as the wonderful sound of God's engine crawls up under your skin and makes your essence tingle in pleasure. You might want to smoke a cigarette afterwards. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aBXUOomynxw

It sounds like Optimus Prime farting. I think you're projecting your own emotional attachment to speed onto a very unpleasant sound.

Have you ever been to a Formula 1 race? Or even any auto race?

Re: “The Tesla Model S is our top-scoring car”

#190

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Plus no autoworkers' union, and no inefficient dealer network.

He's still got an uphill battle on the dealer network thing. North Carolina being the latest problem: http://insideevs.com/hearing-on-tesla-selling-cars-in-north-...

And in Virginia, where they were denied a dealer license despite the investigators recommendation that it was in the public interest, seemingly because of an existing relationship between the DMV head and the dealership association's directors:

https://openwatch.net/i/40/why-did-the-virginia-dmv-deny-tes...

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