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New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

nytimes.com

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Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#51

Post by damian2000 »

irmbrady wrote: post #41
duiker101 wrote: post #23

Will someone excuse my excessive ignorance and be so kind to explain me why the DPRK is so pissed with the US? Thanks

The US military had a big involvement in the Korean War (88% of the South Korean force [1]), and to this day are posted at the demilitarised zone in the Korean Peninsula. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Korean_War [1] Here is an interesting read: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Division_of_Korea

Interesting article - the division is similar to how Germany was divided into east and west.

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#52

Post by raverbashing »

Someone wrote: post #27
raverbashing wrote: post #11

I think the relevant players (I mean, not the UN and their 'strong-worded letters') have decided it's time to call the bluff Doing a Nuclear test is one thing, mounting it on a rocket and sending it far away is another. I think they decided to stop this before it gets ugly.

Yes, it is a different thing, but they don't have to send it that far away. Seoul is just 30 miles from the border. The problem is more one of having a small enough nuclear device and of keeping it intact during launch than of range.

Yes, they can send it by plane, maybe even a suicide mission

Much easier than packing it for deployment in a rocket

30 miles is approximately 5 to 15 minutes of early warning depending on plane speed (considering time after crossing the border, but I'm sure Seoul has monitoring capabilities that go beyond)

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#53

Post by raverbashing »

swatkat wrote: post #19
raverbashing wrote: post #11

I think the relevant players (I mean, not the UN and their 'strong-worded letters') have decided it's time to call the bluff Doing a Nuclear test is one thing, mounting it on a rocket and sending it far away is another. I think they decided to stop this before it gets ugly.

Off-topic: http://xkcd.com/859/ :)

Thank FSM I don't program in lisp :)

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#54

Post by phon »

pilgrim689 wrote: post #21
bayesianhorse wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The nuclear strike isn't an immediate threat. They don't have the means to put the weapon where it actually hurts. The more serious threat is the artillery pointed at Soeul...

Couldn't Seoul protect itself like Isreal did with the Iron Dome?

I believe Iron Dome is designed to deal with what would be traditionally termed short range weapons like mortars and light-rockets. These weapons are light weight, can be fabricated in comparatively primitive conditions and can be deployed by irregular forces.

The conventional weapons that North Korea could use against Seoul are from the other end of the spectrum. Nearly all of them are patterned after Soviet versions which were designed to fit in a doctrine that favored the deployment and use of large numbers of heavy tube and rocket artillery. North Korea possesses large numbers of 153mm and 170mm guns and 240mm multiple unguided rocket launchers. Many of these are in fortified positions that are within range of Seoul.

Source: http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/north-ko...

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#55

Post by polymatter »

ihuman wrote: post #7
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #3

Wow. More juvenile posturing, or the beginning of the end for North Korea? Depends on whether anyone takes them seriously. And with a growing nuclear capability, they can't be taken not-seriously. This is suicide for them.

I agree. What I don't understand is why they are doing this. They have nothing to gain, and everything to lose.

The more horrifying idea is that some higher ups in NK actually believe in the standard propaganda.

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#56

Post by Cthulhu_ »

Someone wrote: post #22
ihuman wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. What I don't understand is why they are doing this. They have nothing to gain, and everything to lose.

Nothing to gain? For North Korea threatening with war is a time-proven way to get aid, both economic and food.

To be honest, dismantling their military regime, opening their borders and requesting help would be more effective.

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#57

Post by mseebach »

pilooch wrote: post #45

There's this counter-intuitive trend that when the heritage of a dictatorial seat goes to a young one, everyone awaits for reforms, whereas the regime tends to rapidly increase its aggressive behavior. The same happened in Syria when Bachar got his seat. I'd be interested in listing other examples, typically in less recent history.

Well, I guess it still counts as recent history, but Gorbachev and the August 1991 coup in the Soviet Union - for an example of what happens when you try to be a reformer.

I really don't think it's counter-intuitive? Even a dictator doesn't rule alone, so when there's a change of power, the new ruler needs to assure his immediate subordinates that their loyalty will not go unrewarded and that he's not going to be a reformer and throw them and their fiefdoms under the bus.

If you're a regime big-wig in North Korea you're not dumb enough that you don't know that you're in the wrong - or, at least, that there is absolutely no way you and your family is going to survive having to explain yourself to the public.

So if your boss decides to put the country on the path to more freedom, you have the option of seeking asylum for your and your family in one of the few countries in the world that will take you, and live the rest of your life (a) in fear of angry underlings out for your life (b) in a lot less comfort than you're used to - or to stage a coup, kill your boss and assume power to "protect the revolution against corrupting, imperialist US influences".

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#58

Post by vidarh »

freehunter wrote: post #37
LatvjuAvs wrote: post #31

I like these sanctions, the one aimed at Iraq starting from 1990's. Really helped for everyone living there. Who would not love a dying child from hunger on his arms, it is like a Easter present.

There's a pretty easy way for the government to avoid situations like that. If your people are at the mercy of foreign governments in order to survive, it really is in your best interest to not continuously piss them off.

That is working on the assumption that the government in question gives a shit about their population.

The problem here is that the sanctions hits a population that is already suffering under the actions of their own government, and has much less of an effect on the regime it is meant to punish.

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#59

Post by mseebach »

duiker101 wrote: post #23

Will someone excuse my excessive ignorance and be so kind to explain me why the DPRK is so pissed with the US? Thanks

It ostensibly because of the US' role in the Korean War. In reality, it's solely for propaganda reasons.

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#60

Post by adventured »

benjoffe wrote: post #16
ihuman wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. What I don't understand is why they are doing this. They have nothing to gain, and everything to lose.

A rational North Korean state would not engage in nuclear war in just about any scenario as it would mean almost certain destruction for itself in response. To help persuade their enemies not to invade they try to appear as irrational as possible. There's an interesting segment in this psychology lecture about irrationality that seems related: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5IrSEIPdwk#t=44m36s There is some advantag…

I don't believe there's any advantage to being irrational or having a temper. Sooner or later someone is going to call your bluff. If you initiate violence, you might get your ass kicked by someone stronger. If you flip out irrationally, they can simply laugh at you as you flail about, or begin ignoring you / avoiding you.

When someone calls your bluff, it's game over. Everything changes from that point forward. Either you can never act that way again, because people will know it's a bluff, or you freak out and do something terrible and then one way or another will be dealt with (police called, go to jail, get put on ignore, get an ass kicking, get nuked to complete annihilation, whatever).

The tragedy here is that America has subsidized North Korea's behavior and ability to exist. We're partially responsible for their regime thinking it can keep doing this, and naturally their threats have to escalate. Their bluff should have been called a very long time ago. It's like taking in someone bullying you, clothing him, feeding him, etc.

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