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New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

nytimes.com

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Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#21

Post by pilgrim689 »

bayesianhorse wrote: post #13
arethuza wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Threatening a nuclear strike is pretty serious stuff - I hope the North Koreans are sensible enough not to fuel up any rockets in the near future... I also wonder if there is a back channel somewhere where they tell the Chinese, who would then presumably tell the US, that they really are just posturing and there is no real threat.

The nuclear strike isn't an immediate threat. They don't have the means to put the weapon where it actually hurts. The more serious threat is the artillery pointed at Soeul...

Couldn't Seoul protect itself like Isreal did with the Iron Dome?

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#22

Post by Someone »

ihuman wrote: post #7
JoeAltmaier wrote: post #3

Wow. More juvenile posturing, or the beginning of the end for North Korea? Depends on whether anyone takes them seriously. And with a growing nuclear capability, they can't be taken not-seriously. This is suicide for them.

I agree. What I don't understand is why they are doing this. They have nothing to gain, and everything to lose.

Nothing to gain? For North Korea threatening with war is a time-proven way to get aid, both economic and food.

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#24

Post by admford »

benjoffe wrote: post #16
ihuman wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. What I don't understand is why they are doing this. They have nothing to gain, and everything to lose.

A rational North Korean state would not engage in nuclear war in just about any scenario as it would mean almost certain destruction for itself in response. To help persuade their enemies not to invade they try to appear as irrational as possible. There's an interesting segment in this psychology lecture about irrationality that seems related: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5IrSEIPdwk#t=44m36s There is some advantag…

Much like Nixon's Madman theory when it came to US foreign policy in the early 70's.

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#25

Post by arethuza »

ordinary wrote: post #15
ihuman wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree. What I don't understand is why they are doing this. They have nothing to gain, and everything to lose.

If North Korea ever decides to uses their nuclear weapons, South Korea will be just as badly off. Actual use of nuclear weapons is a lose-lose scenario for all parties involved (and, indeed, all parties not involved). Threatening use of nuclear weapons is another matter altogether. It is probably also worth noting that every single western nuclear power reserves the right to first use of nuclear weapons. In fact, the…

The Soviets actually considered a first strike in November 1983 during the epic mix up that was the NATO Able Archer 83 exercise.

The Soviets had always believed that the Americans wanted to attack them, perhaps understandably given that in the 1950s and early 1960s there were senior US military leaders who actually wanted to initiate a full nuclear war with the Soviets while the latter were still strategically weak.

The Soviets thought that the Americans were preparing a first strike during Able Archer and were preparing to preempt it - thankfully the exercise ended and everyone on the Soviet side calmed down and took their fingers off the button.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Able_Archer_83

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#26

Post by arethuza »

admford wrote: post #24
benjoffe wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A rational North Korean state would not engage in nuclear war in just about any scenario as it would mean almost certain destruction for itself in response. To help persuade their enemies not to invade they try to appear as irrational as possible. There's an interesting segment in this psychology lecture about irrationality that seems related: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5IrSEIPdwk#t=44m36s There is some advantag…

Much like Nixon's Madman theory when it came to US foreign policy in the early 70's.

"His administration, the executive branch of the federal government of the United States from 1969 to 1974, attempted to make the leaders of other countries think Nixon was mad, and that his behavior was irrational and volatile. Fearing an unpredictable American response, leaders of hostile Communist Bloc nations would avoid provoking the United States."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Madman_theory

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#27

Post by Someone »

raverbashing wrote: post #11

I think the relevant players (I mean, not the UN and their 'strong-worded letters') have decided it's time to call the bluff Doing a Nuclear test is one thing, mounting it on a rocket and sending it far away is another. I think they decided to stop this before it gets ugly.

Yes, it is a different thing, but they don't have to send it that far away. Seoul is just 30 miles from the border.

The problem is more one of having a small enough nuclear device and of keeping it intact during launch than of range.

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#28

Post by kzrdude »

raverbashing wrote: post #11

I think the relevant players (I mean, not the UN and their 'strong-worded letters') have decided it's time to call the bluff Doing a Nuclear test is one thing, mounting it on a rocket and sending it far away is another. I think they decided to stop this before it gets ugly.

Don't ignore the real artillery that NK can actually use to destroy the lives of many, many koreans. If it all was about one weapon that didn't really fly, the situation would be a lot more fun.

Re: New Sanctions Imposed on North Korea as it Warns of Pre-emptive Nuclear Attack

#30

Post by sidcool »

duiker101 wrote: post #23

Will someone excuse my excessive ignorance and be so kind to explain me why the DPRK is so pissed with the US? Thanks

It's mainly because of their support for South Korea during the Korean war of 50s. NK hates SK and the US loves SK. The friend of an enemy is an enemy. There are many reasons, but this forms the base.
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