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Ten predictions (2004)

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Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#111

Post by kostya-kow »

friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

>5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most popular programming languages by 2010. This failed hard.

I don't think it did. Lisp itself didn't become popular, but a lot of functional ideas are being implemented in more mainstream programming languages, and some functional languages are also becoming popular.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#113

Post by masklinn »

Guillaume86 wrote: post #103
franze wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

1) in 2020 most programmers will still be average 2) in 2020 browsers will support a multitude of programming languages natively, most of them functional 3) in 2020 linkedin will be dead 4) in 2020 there will be a huge governmental campaign to teach kids programming, starting in pre-school 5) in 2020 there will be an SVG that is to SVG what HTML5 was to XHTML 6) in 2020 TV will still be mostly watched in 2D 7) in 202…

2) is very optimistic (I wouldn't bet a dollar on it) 8) I'm not sure what you mean with that one, what kind of alternative? (given you seem to exclude transpilers/preprocessors)

> I'm not sure what you mean with that one, what kind of alternative?

I'm guessing one which better handles layouting and modularization.

I'm not hopeful though, CSS is way too "good enough", it's probably there to stay and actual layouting features will slowly get (awkwardly) fitted into it[0], meanwhile modularization will likely be left to components.

[0] http://www.w3.org/TR/css3-flexbox/ http://www.w3.org/TR/css3-multicol/ http://www.w3.org/TR/css3-grid-layout/ the first two are at least partially supported in all modern browsers, the latter is only supported by IE10.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#114

Post by youngerdryas »

MrScruff wrote: post #94
friendly_chap wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Emotional investemented No. I happen to use anything. I am not against Apple, I am against the Apple fanboyism. And any type of fanboyism. > Anecdotal evidence http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_operating_system... "For example, most desktop and laptop computers use Microsoft Windows"

No. I happen to use anything. I am not against Apple, I am against the Apple fanboyism. And any type of fanboyism. 'Fanboy' is a pejorative term used on the internet to try and infer irrationality in others. It's like hipster. It doesn't make you magically qualified to judge others opinions or motivations just by using it. "For example, most desktop and laptop computers use Microsoft Windows" That is not anecdotal, t…

He knows very well it is a pejorative term, that is why he used it.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#115

Post by tomasien »

Crazy to see someone talking about PG in 2004 that way (see comments section). I assumed that comment must have come from an HR'er in 2004, but nope. Apparently it was just someone talking about PG and LISP on the Stevey's blog in 2004. Weird.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#116

Post by oinksoft »

xiaoma wrote: post #4

This really is an impressive display of foresight. It appears that all the reading Steve mentioned doing paid off. The act of discussing his predictions here on HN is foretold in prediction #6. And those that were off, were still pretty warm.

Prediction #6 is not very ambitious. The only way several new "internet hangouts" would not emerge would be if the internet suddenly had ceased to exist.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#117

Post by zeeboo »

seanmcdirmid wrote: post #36
friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

> We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Thank god we dodged that bullet. I'm just glad people see XML for what it really is (useful, but not that useful). > Not really. We are already in the multicore age, and it will only get moreticore. The problem is multi-threaded has never really took off, even with all the cores we have today. There is still no silverbullet to harnessing parallelism. > Apple's lap…

> A tautology if I ever heard one.

Consider this set of programmer "skill levels" where most (80%!) are above average: {10, 10, 10, 10, 1}

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#118

Post by a_m0d »

ghshephard wrote: post #38
friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

"6. A new internet community-hangout will appear. One that you and I will frequent. This is such a vague prediction does not even worth mentioning." This is one he nailed - Facebook.

I was thinking more of StackOverflow as an answer to this one.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#119

Post by bruceboughton »

stinky613 wrote: post #104
yen223 wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't think Facebook was big at the time, was it?

If you were in college in 2004 it was pretty unavoidable

Facebook didn't launch 'til February 2004. Initially it was only available at US Ivy League colleges and, then, in 2005 at some international universities, but it was not "unavoidable" in 2004.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Facebook

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#120

Post by bnegreve »

friendly_chap wrote: post #49
eloisant wrote: post #47

Considering that Lisp failed to get to the top 10 between 1958 and 2004, it was pretty dump to predict it would suddenly rise to the top.

Predicting that a language without a type system is the future is pretty dumb in itself. I give y'all an other one: "cars without brakes are the future".

Well Clojure is actually a lisp dialect, more generally speaking, functional programming languages get more attention nowadays than back in 2004. Since 2004, we have F# Clojure, Scala was released in 2003.... Considering how hard it is to predict the future, I would say it is a pretty accurate prediction.
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