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Ten predictions (2004)

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Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#31

Post by carbuncle »

JDShu wrote: post #9

Prediction #3 is the only one which I can't see being interpreted as being reasonably accurate. Anybody care to explain why it might be correct?

We are doing more "multi-process" programming than "multi-threading". Our systems are designed to scale by increasing the number of processes performing the task at hand, more than having one process with multiple threads to increase concurrency.

The programmers try not to think delegate the thread management to the OS, by using multiple processes and MQ in between.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#32

Post by wwwtyro »

friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

2. "hosting open-source web applications" does not really describe GitHub

3. He's not talking about using multiple cores, he's talking about using multiple threads vs (for example) multiple processes.

6. Reddit, Hacker News

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#33

Post by hittaruki »

_anshulk wrote: post #18
hittaruki wrote: post #14

Status of these predictions in 2013... 1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea? 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. github? 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. go? node? 4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. clojure? scala? 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most po…

#2 probably refers more to heroku than github...

You are right, I read his whole description once again... :)

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#34

Post by [deleted] »

_anshulk wrote: post #18
hittaruki wrote: post #14

Status of these predictions in 2013... 1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea? 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. github? 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. go? node? 4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. clojure? scala? 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most po…

#2 probably refers more to heroku than github...

[deleted]

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#35

Post by nos4A2 »

friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

I think on point 2, he meant a hoster like heroku or AWS? On point 6, its reddit (BBS for this gen), point 8, google drive, android apps, play store etc, point 9, I think the iPad counts :)

Overall quite spot on i'd say..

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#36

Post by seanmcdirmid »

friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

> We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML.

Thank god we dodged that bullet. I'm just glad people see XML for what it really is (useful, but not that useful).

> Not really. We are already in the multicore age, and it will only get moreticore.

The problem is multi-threaded has never really took off, even with all the cores we have today. There is still no silverbullet to harnessing parallelism.

> Apple's laptop sales will exceed those of HP/Compaq, IBM, Dell and Gateway combined by 2010. No way, thanks God.

Apple's profits on laptop sales (not other iOS devices) exceed those of HP, Lenovo, and Dell (everyone else being dead). Apple has been in no hurry to capture the unit shipped crown (and if we count iPads, they are already there).

> In five years' time, most programmers will still be average.

A tautology if I ever heard one.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#37

Post by Samuel_Michon »

S4M wrote: post #10
xiaoma wrote: post #4

This really is an impressive display of foresight. It appears that all the reading Steve mentioned doing paid off. The act of discussing his predictions here on HN is foretold in prediction #6. And those that were off, were still pretty warm.

When reading the article, I had the feeling that prediction #6 was actually FaceBook.

Facebook already existed when this was written. HN was just around the corner and fits a lot better, imo. I figured "you and I" referred to developers and entrepeneurs, not the general public.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#38

Post by ghshephard »

friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

"6. A new internet community-hangout will appear. One that you and I will frequent. This is such a vague prediction does not even worth mentioning."

This is one he nailed - Facebook.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#39

Post by friendly_chap »

wwwtyro wrote: post #32
friendly_chap wrote: post #29

1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. We got NoSQL (esp. JSON based ones) instead of XML. Close enough though. 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. Github is cool but with all the cheapskate web devs (no offense, I am one of them) I don't think it is _that_ profitable. 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. Not really.…

2. "hosting open-source web applications" does not really describe GitHub 3. He's not talking about using multiple cores, he's talking about using multiple threads vs (for example) multiple processes. 6. Reddit, Hacker News

2. I think github is the most notable example.

3. Gotta reread that.

6. Oh come on, facebook, youporn, whatever. As I said, too vague.

Re: Ten predictions (2004)

#40

Post by benihana »

hittaruki wrote: post #14

Status of these predictions in 2013... 1. XML databases will surpass relational databases in popularity by 2011. What has happened to this idea? 2. Someone will make a lot of money by hosting open-source web applications. github? 3. Multi-threaded programming will fall out of favor by 2012. go? node? 4. Java's "market share" on the JVM will drop below 50% by 2010. clojure? scala? 5. Lisp will be in the top 10 most po…

>9. Apple's laptop sales will exceed those of HP/Compaq, IBM, Dell and Gateway combined by 2010. Hm...

If you count tablets as laptops, then yes, way way way yes.

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