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Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

forbes.com

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Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#171

Post by tokenadult »

elchief wrote: post #115
tluyben2 wrote: post #97

So how many years are we talking until we see them in the US? Europe? Asia? Not seeing 1 or 2 with millionaires in them but when I buy any car I have the option, or, even better, it's mandatory driverless (which makes sense as the roads would be safer with only driverless cars there)? For me, this would actually be a solid reason to move to the country they have it first. I find driving an absolute waste of time, but…

Sergei Brin of Google has promised < 5 years for an average joe. And that was 6 months ago.

Sergey Brin's actual statement was "You can count on one hand the number of years until ordinary people can experience this" as transcribed from an interview.

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9231707/Self_driving_...

That is an ambitious prediction, and I wonder what that suggests about the cost of the self-driving system, as fewer and fewer cars look affordable to many "ordinary people" these days. I think Brin, being a billionaire for several years now, may have a warped sense of what "ordinary people" can really afford, so I give it ten years till I'm likely to be able to buy a car with self-driving features. But that means I can buy at most just one more car without self-driving features (to replace a car that threatens to fail at any moment, after almost 170,000 miles of driving since 1999), and then the next car I buy will be a self-driving car. Cool.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#172

Post by bsenftner »

lukifer wrote: post #114
MichaelApproved wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take the next leap and see that you don't need to actually own the car at all. No need to send a car back home. No need to negotiate with your neighbor. We all share a fleet of cars like a taxi service. Need a car? Pull out your smartphone app and push the "call" button that sends a nearby car to your location. You could also schedule a pickup for the exact time you get off work. No need to send an empty car back hom…

This will definitely exist, but not everybody will want to give up personalized cars. Too many people see their car as part of their identity. We have the tech right now for every workplace to have open seating and non-personalized computer workstations, and while some companies do this, most people still want their own desk space and personalized computer.

I foresee certain technical careers, such as us developers, having combo driverless cars that also double as their office. It picks you up, you simply start working. The destination that day is where ever you want to have lunch, or some meeting with a client or fellow developers on your team. You just work, in your traveling office, and arrive at desired destinations for your breaks.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#173

Post by Someone »

taligent wrote: post #144
jsnell wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every manufacturer is not going to have their own solution. The top few, sure. But it's a different story for the long tail. It can't possibly make sense for all the companies with 1% market share and no notable software knowledge to write their own systems, especially with all the likely regulatory hurdles. It wouldn't be good, and it wouldn't be cheap. There's clearly going to be a huge market for commodity solutio…

> Every manufacturer is not going to have their own solution. The top few, sure. Wrong answer. The car companies that currently have their own projects: Audi / BMW / Ford / GM / Honda / Hyundai / Lexus / Mercedes-Benz / Nissan / Porsche / Tesla / Toyota / Volkswagen / Volvo And remind me again who would want to license technology from a company who has zero experience in delivering mission critical solutions.

Also, there has been huge consolidation in the market. For example, BMW owns Rolls-Royce and Mini, the Volkswagen group includes Audi, Bentley, Bugatti, Porsche, Skoda, and others, Volvo is, IIRC, chinese and Chevrolet Korean, and there are lots of reciprocal relationships such as that betweeen Renault and Nissan.

There are almost more car brands than car designs.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#174

Post by Cushman »

pkorzeniewski wrote: post #133
Cushman wrote: post #50

I've been saying this to anyone who will listen for years. I really believe this technology will touch everything . Real estate markets will shift dramatically as the average commute time halves or quarters. Transport costs will plummet, making every single physical object cheaper. Public transit will be dirt cheap, always punctual, and take you absolutely anywhere. Tens of thousands of people each year will escape d…

You're missing one important factor - many people, me included, just like to drive cars and they don't treat them as "transport vehicle only". I would refuse to use a driverless car even if it would be more economic, more safe and would transport me faster.

This reads to me like arguing for your right to fire guns into the air. You think driving is fun? So do I. I also think it's the most likely way I'm going to die right now, and that thought terrifies me every time I get into a car. (And how much would it suck to be one of the last few hundred thousand people to die in a car crash before it never happened again to anyone?)

We already have tracks, which like firing ranges allow people like us to indulge our hobby in both safety and company. Driving a car on public roads is a ludicrously dangerous and irresponsible thing to do just because it's fun.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#175

Post by Cushman »

lukifer wrote: post #114
MichaelApproved wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take the next leap and see that you don't need to actually own the car at all. No need to send a car back home. No need to negotiate with your neighbor. We all share a fleet of cars like a taxi service. Need a car? Pull out your smartphone app and push the "call" button that sends a nearby car to your location. You could also schedule a pickup for the exact time you get off work. No need to send an empty car back hom…

This will definitely exist, but not everybody will want to give up personalized cars. Too many people see their car as part of their identity. We have the tech right now for every workplace to have open seating and non-personalized computer workstations, and while some companies do this, most people still want their own desk space and personalized computer.

People used to make friends with horses-- and many of those who can afford to still do. But the massive economic incentive to sharing a car will make this not a choice for any but the very wealthy.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#176

Post by Cushman »

taligent wrote: post #144
jsnell wrote: post #131

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every manufacturer is not going to have their own solution. The top few, sure. But it's a different story for the long tail. It can't possibly make sense for all the companies with 1% market share and no notable software knowledge to write their own systems, especially with all the likely regulatory hurdles. It wouldn't be good, and it wouldn't be cheap. There's clearly going to be a huge market for commodity solutio…

> Every manufacturer is not going to have their own solution. The top few, sure. Wrong answer. The car companies that currently have their own projects: Audi / BMW / Ford / GM / Honda / Hyundai / Lexus / Mercedes-Benz / Nissan / Porsche / Tesla / Toyota / Volkswagen / Volvo And remind me again who would want to license technology from a company who has zero experience in delivering mission critical solutions.

Having a project is not having a self-driving car. How many miles of fully autonomous driving on public roads do each of those companies have?

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#177

Post by jinushaun »

Cushman wrote: post #50

I've been saying this to anyone who will listen for years. I really believe this technology will touch everything . Real estate markets will shift dramatically as the average commute time halves or quarters. Transport costs will plummet, making every single physical object cheaper. Public transit will be dirt cheap, always punctual, and take you absolutely anywhere. Tens of thousands of people each year will escape d…

And I can't believe people honestly told Google to dump the project and "focus". Oh Wall Street... They worry about tomorrow's profits, but Google is thinking about next year's profit.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#178

Post by Cushman »

bcoates wrote: post #70
Cushman wrote: post #50

I've been saying this to anyone who will listen for years. I really believe this technology will touch everything . Real estate markets will shift dramatically as the average commute time halves or quarters. Transport costs will plummet, making every single physical object cheaper. Public transit will be dirt cheap, always punctual, and take you absolutely anywhere. Tens of thousands of people each year will escape d…

Driverless cars would be a fantastic improvement to society, but I think you might be underestimating how much people will compensate. Traffic rises to fill roads, and only a small part of public transport budgets are for drivers (it looks like around 10% for LA)

Well, there's no force that makes traffic "rise to fill roads"; there's externalities to having increased traffic capacity that may cause transportation needs to increase. We still have a lot of underutilized roads.

The main difference in terms of capacity, I think, is that once we have majority- and fully-autonomous roads, the system will actually not allow the road to exceed capacity. Individual vehicles will respond to signs of lower throughput by getting off of the potentially congested road, while centralized signaling systems will help coordinate routes and departure times to optimize-- and due to the non-Newtonian nature of traffic, keeping throughput high actually increases road capacity.

So if you get into your car at 9am and say, "Take me to work," it's not going to say, "Time with traffic: One hour," it's going to say, "We should depart in twenty-five minutes." Even better, if you are subscribed to a service like most Americans will be, you'll instead tell them the day or week or month before, "I need to be at work by 9am," and they'll say, "There will be a fifteen dollar capacity fee. Would you rather arrive at 8:30 or 10?" And let you and your work decide exactly how much of the economy's money it's worth for you to be there at exactly the same time as everyone else in the time zone.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#179

Post by Cushman »

jpatokal wrote: post #139
MichaelApproved wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take the next leap and see that you don't need to actually own the car at all. No need to send a car back home. No need to negotiate with your neighbor. We all share a fleet of cars like a taxi service. Need a car? Pull out your smartphone app and push the "call" button that sends a nearby car to your location. You could also schedule a pickup for the exact time you get off work. No need to send an empty car back hom…

...except if said family has kids of the age that they need car seats, which are a pain in the ass to install correctly; ripping them out and putting them back in twice a day is both ridiculous and unsafe. And you can't realistically even have shared cars with pre-installed car seats, because they need to be adjusted all the frigging time as the kid grows. FWIW, neither my wife or I had ever owned a car, we managed j…

Yes, you too will benefit from robotic cars! You may have to pay your service some premium for a toddler-safe vehicle, but only when you need to take the kid; and what you'll get is a way more expensive vehicle than you could otherwise afford, with a back seat completely designed around toddler safety. There won't be straps to adjust, because there will be no requirement that this car can be converted for the transport of adults, or bicycles, or anything else.

All of that aside from that the system will be safe enough that you can trust your toddler to order and ride in vehicles by themselves if necessary.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#180

Post by [deleted] »

jpatokal wrote: post #139
MichaelApproved wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take the next leap and see that you don't need to actually own the car at all. No need to send a car back home. No need to negotiate with your neighbor. We all share a fleet of cars like a taxi service. Need a car? Pull out your smartphone app and push the "call" button that sends a nearby car to your location. You could also schedule a pickup for the exact time you get off work. No need to send an empty car back hom…

...except if said family has kids of the age that they need car seats, which are a pain in the ass to install correctly; ripping them out and putting them back in twice a day is both ridiculous and unsafe. And you can't realistically even have shared cars with pre-installed car seats, because they need to be adjusted all the frigging time as the kid grows. FWIW, neither my wife or I had ever owned a car, we managed j…

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