This assumes Google will have the market to itself. Cars aren't like search. It's not a winner-takes-all market.
[deleted]
Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions
111–120 of 204 posts
Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions
#112Hmm, no mention of the disruptions in employment due to driverless cars. There go taxi drivers, bus drivers and a big segment---truck drivers, so I would expect a large push back from the various unions (I'm extrapolating from _The Box_, a history of container shipping).
America still has unions?
Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
90 percent of those in the transportation sector will lose their jobs. Car companies will go broke when demand plummets. Pizza delivery will not be an entrylevel job. I think the net effect will be hugely positive, but like all paradigm shifts this is going to cause immense social upheaval and initially look like it only makes things worse.
> Car companies will go broke when demand plummets. Just because it doesn't have a driver doesn't mean it doesn't need to be manufactured. Car companies will do fine. > Pizza delivery will not be an entrylevel job. Nope. But pizza making still will be. Sebastian, are you listening? > I think the net effect will be hugely positive You got that right. > but like all paradigm shifts this is going to cause immense social…
> Just because it doesn't have a driver doesn't mean it doesn't need to be manufactured. Car companies will do fine.
From TFA: "We can reduce the number of cars by 90%." So, you read that and disagree with it?
Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
> Just because it doesn't have a driver doesn't mean it doesn't need to be manufactured. Car companies will do fine. No they won't; every > 1 car family will have 1 car only after this, because, when at work, you just send your car back on it's own for the wife and kids. Big reduction. If your neighbor has different hours than you have, you can combine that by sending the car back when you arrived. I think it'll have…
Take the next leap and see that you don't need to actually own the car at all. No need to send a car back home. No need to negotiate with your neighbor. We all share a fleet of cars like a taxi service. Need a car? Pull out your smartphone app and push the "call" button that sends a nearby car to your location. You could also schedule a pickup for the exact time you get off work. No need to send an empty car back hom…
This will definitely exist, but not everybody will want to give up personalized cars. Too many people see their car as part of their identity.
We have the tech right now for every workplace to have open seating and non-personalized computer workstations, and while some companies do this, most people still want their own desk space and personalized computer.
Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions
#115So how many years are we talking until we see them in the US? Europe? Asia? Not seeing 1 or 2 with millionaires in them but when I buy any car I have the option, or, even better, it's mandatory driverless (which makes sense as the roads would be safer with only driverless cars there)? For me, this would actually be a solid reason to move to the country they have it first. I find driving an absolute waste of time, but…
Sergei Brin of Google has promised < 5 years for an average joe. And that was 6 months ago.
Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions
#116We'll all be dead from toxic smog before Google's driverless cars get anywhere. I think the idea is extremely shortsighted. It's a technological feat but not a creative one. It just produces more cars, more fuel-burning and more roads. It's more cars and that will produce more pollution. Ultimately, it solves nothing. You want to stop deadly car crashes? Help save wildlife from excessive roads and urban sprawl? Stop…
No, it will probably produce about 85% fewer cars.
KPMG's report comes to the same conclusion as mine:
http://vancouverdata.blogspot.ca/2012/08/googles-self-drivin...
Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
Driverless cars would be a fantastic improvement to society, but I think you might be underestimating how much people will compensate. Traffic rises to fill roads, and only a small part of public transport budgets are for drivers (it looks like around 10% for LA)
> only a small part of public transport budgets are for drivers (it looks like around 10% for LA) Well, you also have to consider that bus systems are built around driver scarcity. What if buses were half as large, and run twice as often? They can't now, because that would double driver labor costs. If buses were the size of vans, capital costs might even decrease due to having access to van-market economies of scale…
The sensible model seems to be called "flex service" or "demand responsive transit" (1): Dynamically routed small shuttles where customers place trip orders to the transit company, and the routing system figures out paths for the shuttles so customers get where they want to go in reasonable time.
(1) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demand_responsive_transport
Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
You haven't taken into account car pooling. Driverless cars can do adhoc car pooling. I can even see things like local 4 seater driverless cars picking you up, and taking you to another 10 (or more) seater vehicle for the rest of your journey. (By definition the congestion is because a lot of people have overlapping routes.) Additionally you are no longer to blame for your commute since the driverless system would be…
Many people don't like sharing a car with strangers; I doubt this will change as quickly as the technology.
Most of the reason for that (at least in my experience) isn't about some deep desire for privacy, but for the prosaic reason that it's a nuisance to arrange with someone else to meet at a certain time and place, to make sure that everyone in the car pool gets out of the house in the right 10 minute window, etc
Being able to just call a car to drive you to work, while an automatic system figures out the car sharing arrangements in real time, could remove a lot of the barriers.
Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions
#119I've been saying this to anyone who will listen for years. I really believe this technology will touch everything . Real estate markets will shift dramatically as the average commute time halves or quarters. Transport costs will plummet, making every single physical object cheaper. Public transit will be dirt cheap, always punctual, and take you absolutely anywhere. Tens of thousands of people each year will escape d…
This is combined with more people working from home ... more people ordering on the Internet. Generally the use of cars is going to continue to go down substantially.
Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
All those other car companies? They are the ones with the brands and the cars people want. They are the iphones in this situation. Sure, if you're pushing a new powertrain you can do okay making one or two of your own cars (which will take years ) and you can shortcut the time to build up a brandname to a degree by being exclusive, but none of that effort is warranted because this technology does not require that sor…
Google has loads of money. They can buy a car company. Tesla has a $4B market cap. Or they could invest significantly in a car company. Or they can strike exclusive agreements.
Why deal with the hassle of actually owning a car company and factories and all the related problems of actually building things. Also what does Google gain by offering an exclusive agreement to a nice car maker? Wouldn't it be better to offer the tech to everybody, sit back, focus on R&D and take a percentage of every sale made while let them deal with all the problems of actually building and selling cars.