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Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

forbes.com

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Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#131

Post by jsnell »

cremnob wrote: post #89
OGinparadise wrote: post #16

Fasten Your Seatbelts: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions Amazing! He studied and compared all other driver-less cars to Google's and came to this conclusion. I know a writer getting paid for clicks wouldn't forget that virtually every major car company is working on http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Driverless_car#History

A lot of people here seem to have the blinders on about this. It's kind of funny. I've posted this before the last time this came up. Car companies have been working on this for a while, unless Google's offering is just light years ahead of the rest, no car company is going to pay a Google tax for this tech (and it's unlikely it will be any better than what they are already working on). https://news.ycombinator.com/i…

Every manufacturer is not going to have their own solution. The top few, sure. But it's a different story for the long tail. It can't possibly make sense for all the companies with 1% market share and no notable software knowledge to write their own systems, especially with all the likely regulatory hurdles. It wouldn't be good, and it wouldn't be cheap.

There's clearly going to be a huge market for commodity solutions, and the economies of scale and the network effects suggest that it should narrow down to a few main ones.

Is Google's going to be one of those successful ones? Impossible to say for sure, but they do have a couple of huge advantages. They already have the geodata (all car manufacturers would still need to pay either Google or Nokia for that, even if they wrote their own software). And if I were a car manufacturer, I'd rather not license software from a direct competitor, but from an outsider. It certainly seems worth a bet.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#132

Post by scaphandre »

bambax wrote: post #77
Cushman wrote: post #50

I've been saying this to anyone who will listen for years. I really believe this technology will touch everything . Real estate markets will shift dramatically as the average commute time halves or quarters. Transport costs will plummet, making every single physical object cheaper. Public transit will be dirt cheap, always punctual, and take you absolutely anywhere. Tens of thousands of people each year will escape d…

I can't wait to see driverless cars available everywhere, but I'm afraid of the pushback, especially from governments who will inevitably come up with stupid regulations that will make it as cumbersome to use as possible. Also, given that I live in France, I'm sure there won't be any Google car allowed anywhere before the French automakers are able to make one -- which is to say, probably never.

France is a democracy. Traffic accidents are a main cause of death. Self-driving cars appear to be safer already.

Let's make it an issue and make government change.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#133

Post by pkorzeniewski »

Cushman wrote: post #50

I've been saying this to anyone who will listen for years. I really believe this technology will touch everything . Real estate markets will shift dramatically as the average commute time halves or quarters. Transport costs will plummet, making every single physical object cheaper. Public transit will be dirt cheap, always punctual, and take you absolutely anywhere. Tens of thousands of people each year will escape d…

You're missing one important factor - many people, me included, just like to drive cars and they don't treat them as "transport vehicle only". I would refuse to use a driverless car even if it would be more economic, more safe and would transport me faster.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#134

Post by tluyben2 »

elchief wrote: post #115
tluyben2 wrote: post #97

So how many years are we talking until we see them in the US? Europe? Asia? Not seeing 1 or 2 with millionaires in them but when I buy any car I have the option, or, even better, it's mandatory driverless (which makes sense as the roads would be safer with only driverless cars there)? For me, this would actually be a solid reason to move to the country they have it first. I find driving an absolute waste of time, but…

Sergei Brin of Google has promised < 5 years for an average joe. And that was 6 months ago.

That would be the US I guess, but that's close enough :) Hopefully they can do it!

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#135

Post by tluyben2 »

lukifer wrote: post #114
MichaelApproved wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Take the next leap and see that you don't need to actually own the car at all. No need to send a car back home. No need to negotiate with your neighbor. We all share a fleet of cars like a taxi service. Need a car? Pull out your smartphone app and push the "call" button that sends a nearby car to your location. You could also schedule a pickup for the exact time you get off work. No need to send an empty car back hom…

This will definitely exist, but not everybody will want to give up personalized cars. Too many people see their car as part of their identity. We have the tech right now for every workplace to have open seating and non-personalized computer workstations, and while some companies do this, most people still want their own desk space and personalized computer.

>Too many people see their car as part of their identity.

I think that's because of the feeling you have when you drive a large machine yourself. If you are not behind the wheel anymore, will it still be the same feeling?

And yes, SOME will have this; there will exist a need for cars, I'm saying it will just be far less than it is now.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#136

Post by tluyben2 »

MichaelApproved wrote: post #107
tluyben2 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just because it doesn't have a driver doesn't mean it doesn't need to be manufactured. Car companies will do fine. No they won't; every > 1 car family will have 1 car only after this, because, when at work, you just send your car back on it's own for the wife and kids. Big reduction. If your neighbor has different hours than you have, you can combine that by sending the car back when you arrived. I think it'll have…

Take the next leap and see that you don't need to actually own the car at all. No need to send a car back home. No need to negotiate with your neighbor. We all share a fleet of cars like a taxi service. Need a car? Pull out your smartphone app and push the "call" button that sends a nearby car to your location. You could also schedule a pickup for the exact time you get off work. No need to send an empty car back hom…

Yeah those kind of services are already very popular in, for instance, Amsterdam (Greenwheels.nl). I know a lot of people living/working there who just did away with their car and use one of the available short term cars all around the city. When they are auto drive they can just drive to your door; depending on the cost it's a no brainer.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#137

Post by gadders »

One overlooked factor is how much marital discord this will save.

"I drove last time, it's your turn to drive." "But they'll be serving just beer. You don't even like beer." etc etc

I also look forward to the day when you will be able to go to the pub, get absolutely wankered, and still be able to get home safely without waiting for cabs.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#138

Post by eli_gottlieb »

surrealize wrote: post #81
bcoates wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Driverless cars would be a fantastic improvement to society, but I think you might be underestimating how much people will compensate. Traffic rises to fill roads, and only a small part of public transport budgets are for drivers (it looks like around 10% for LA)

> only a small part of public transport budgets are for drivers (it looks like around 10% for LA) Well, you also have to consider that bus systems are built around driver scarcity. What if buses were half as large, and run twice as often? They can't now, because that would double driver labor costs. If buses were the size of vans, capital costs might even decrease due to having access to van-market economies of scale…

You mean share-taxis? They're relatively common already in many places.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#139

Post by jpatokal »

MichaelApproved wrote: post #107
tluyben2 wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Just because it doesn't have a driver doesn't mean it doesn't need to be manufactured. Car companies will do fine. No they won't; every > 1 car family will have 1 car only after this, because, when at work, you just send your car back on it's own for the wife and kids. Big reduction. If your neighbor has different hours than you have, you can combine that by sending the car back when you arrived. I think it'll have…

Take the next leap and see that you don't need to actually own the car at all. No need to send a car back home. No need to negotiate with your neighbor. We all share a fleet of cars like a taxi service. Need a car? Pull out your smartphone app and push the "call" button that sends a nearby car to your location. You could also schedule a pickup for the exact time you get off work. No need to send an empty car back hom…

...except if said family has kids of the age that they need car seats, which are a pain in the ass to install correctly; ripping them out and putting them back in twice a day is both ridiculous and unsafe. And you can't realistically even have shared cars with pre-installed car seats, because they need to be adjusted all the frigging time as the kid grows.

FWIW, neither my wife or I had ever owned a car, we managed just fine with public transport and car-sharing. But once the baby came along, we pretty much had to buy a car.

Re: Google's Driverless Car Is Worth Trillions

#140

Post by VBprogrammer »

pkorzeniewski wrote: post #133
Cushman wrote: post #50

I've been saying this to anyone who will listen for years. I really believe this technology will touch everything . Real estate markets will shift dramatically as the average commute time halves or quarters. Transport costs will plummet, making every single physical object cheaper. Public transit will be dirt cheap, always punctual, and take you absolutely anywhere. Tens of thousands of people each year will escape d…

You're missing one important factor - many people, me included, just like to drive cars and they don't treat them as "transport vehicle only". I would refuse to use a driverless car even if it would be more economic, more safe and would transport me faster.

I'm sure you feel that way. But I'm certain plenty of people felt that way when horses were replaced by cars. There is no arguing with better. As likely as not the government will eventually force your hand with driverless only lanes / roads.

Anyway, if you really want to enjoy a driving experience get a motorcycle!

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