Live data from Hacker News

Nvidia is the central bank of AI

economist.com

311–320 of 366 posts

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#311

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

Maybe this is silly of me, but maybe gaming would enjoy an era of hardware upgrades being rather unviable so the focus turns to optimization and aesthetic.

This is basically already the case in the flourishing indie space, but for different reasons.

The only developers chasing cutting-edge hardware features are the AAA studios and I honestly think a lot of them would just die before successfully relearning how to make games that play well instead of just look pretty.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#312
post #198

Cracks are starting to appear. Open Ai and Anthropic are publicly asking for slowdown in AI research. Translation: We see this technology not being any more useful than what it is now, no AGI is coming, and the first one to accept this and slow down the dollar burn rate will incur the wrath of the market. So let's say this big boogey man technology will end all life on earth and we all slow down together. Bonus point…

It's always funny to me when they do the fear-propaganda, e.g. A statement like "There's a 10% chance that AI will destroy humanity in a decade". If a government were for the people, it can reasonably react with "Okay - if that's the case, you should shut down. And if not you will be arrested. Because if this is true, you're willingly building equivalent of a nuclear bomb."

It feels like there's should be some sort of "demonstrable intent to do harm" statute on the books for situations like this.

If you have a genuinely-held belief that AI systems will end life on earth and you willfully continuing working on them anyway, then, like... you probably shouldn't be allowed to walk free in civil society anymore, right?

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#313
post #290

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compute has already lost value for me. Six months ago I thought you needed a 1T+ model to be useful coding. Now I am able to get by just fine with a 27b model. I see two factors converging to cause a collapse of this house of cards: 1. People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model, a small but well tuned customer service model,…

This is the right kind of analysis, but we can look broader. Both the demand and supply situations are a lot more extreme and dynamic than appears at first glance. E.g. to your points: 1. Yes, smaller models will become more popular, especially as the tokenmaxxing trend dies down and people start stretching their budgets farther. That is a downward pressure on demand. But along the same dimension, consider that curre…

> But along the same dimension, consider that currently only about 40 - 60% of the world uses AI for only about 5 - 15% of their work hours.

Ah yes, i am constantly lamenting that my barista isn’t using ai enough ;)

Hopefully you’ve adjusted your ceiling numbers to account for the large amount of people who can’t afford to pay for llms, and will never be able to pay, and aren’t worth it to advertise to since they can afford very little

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#314
post #192

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Compute has already lost value for me. Six months ago I thought you needed a 1T+ model to be useful coding. Now I am able to get by just fine with a 27b model. I see two factors converging to cause a collapse of this house of cards: 1. People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model, a small but well tuned customer service model,…

They need the right harness and either your help it auto produces in time enough content to further improve.

A classic big ai talking point. Color me skeptical.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#315
post #265

Earlier quoted context omitted.

LLMs needing less compute would actually be a good thing for Nvidia due to Jevons paradox. Right now token costs are an impediment to using AI more broadly, and more efficient models would help adoption in cases where AI has proven to be useful, like coding. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox

Jevon’s paradox is a common talking point but it is not a law of nature. LED lightbulbs use 80% less energy than incandescent but you don’t see people using 5x more lights on their homes. The overall energy used to light homes has decreased. And even if compute demand were perfectly elastic it’s only a good thing insofar as it drives demand for new Nvidia hardware. If tokens can be served from Apple hardware or Googl…

As I look up and see three lightbulbs side-by-side over my desk and another one in the lamp on the desk… which is dramatically more light than the old 100W bulb used but also lower energy consumption.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#316

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What indication do you see that we will see a slow down in model capabilities or AI use?

As the breakneck growth slows, the multiples will compress, and the companies will pull back on spending accordingly as they watch their stocks decline and investors demand more conservative spending behavior. The Internet didn't stop expanding in 2000-2001. Everything got drastically larger over the following two decades. The multiples on earnings did implode for ~15 years however. MSFT stock for one example went no…

The growth seems to be accelerating.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#317
post #198

Cracks are starting to appear. Open Ai and Anthropic are publicly asking for slowdown in AI research. Translation: We see this technology not being any more useful than what it is now, no AGI is coming, and the first one to accept this and slow down the dollar burn rate will incur the wrath of the market. So let's say this big boogey man technology will end all life on earth and we all slow down together. Bonus point…

> Cracks are starting to appear. Open Ai and Anthropic are publicly asking for slowdown in AI research. Translation: We see this technology not being any more useful than what it is now, no AGI is coming

Predicting a usefulness plateau is absolutely wild given how fast AI agents have been improving at writing code this year. I have doubts about AGI but I think you’re making assumptions and translating it wrong. These two companies have always been asking for a slowdown from their inception, that’s not a new thing. It’s part marketing hype, but they both do want regulation to step in and slow down the competition, not because they see a usefulness plateau, but the opposite - the usefulness is growing so fast that they want to remain in control, and they are scared that working hard and competing will not be enough. Anthropic has also said out loud they think their competition (not just OpenAI) is not being responsible and they want the regulation so they can be the responsible shepherd, as AI gets more and more useful.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#318

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the TA said “yeah I guess repaying debt is like destroying money” as if they had never thought of that before They shouldn't have been a TA. Modern money is destroyed in three ways: through taxation, defaults and the extinguishing of debts.

Taxation destroys money?

Yes, the government doesn’t have a checking account. When it spends money, that money is created and its balance sheet grows. When it receives taxes the balance sheet shrinks as the money is destroyed. If there’s a gap it gets filled by issuing bonds. Thats the national debt. These are conventions, not absolute rules, so governments can go rogue but it doesn’t end well

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#319
post #293

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://artificialanalysis.ai/?models=gpt-5-3-codex%2Cqwen3-... Shows qwen3.8-27b along side seven larger models of ~similar vintage. Only one scores above 27b. Many of those are closed models so idk their exact parameter count / active param count, but it hardly matters - i’m sure all of them are far above 100b params My point is not that bigger is pointless. It’s just clearly not the only road to take to make a mod…

Thanks! That's very helpful as a way to discuss. First off, I'd include Qwen flash-next and GLM 5.3 to show some of the other strong open weight models, and they predictably dominate it, but they're much larger. But, it shows up right next to DSv4 Flash 0731 on the overall index, and that's much larger. It's a great model! But then scroll down and hit Time Per Task, and you'll see that DSv4 Flash takes 3.6 seconds pe…

> Qwen flash-next and GLM 5.3 to show some of the other strong open weight models, and they predictably dominate it

Absolutely - no argument from me here. Bigger is very clearly a lever you can pull to get more out of a model.

> But then scroll down and hit Time Per Task, and you'll see that DSv4 Flash takes 3.6 seconds per task to Qwen's 21.1

Fair point, qwen definitely is slower - it’s a dense model, 27b params, vs a sparse 13b active params model - but the data doesn’t quite agree with what you’re saying about reasoning. I.e.:

> It can make up for its shortcomings by iterating a lot longer, and using way more thinking tokens

If you look at the total tokens generated, deepseek thought for 45k tokens and qwen thought for 48k. Barely a difference. The wall clock difference is all down to the speed of token generation, not the amount of reasoning done. At least when we are comparing deepseek and qwen 27b. The comparison swings more towards your position when it comes to the other models on the chart that reason for much fewer tokens.

So perhaps a hypothetical Qwen-27b-a13b could never rival deepseek’s larger model and the tradeoff is one of speed vs overall size - i.e. a small model needs more active params to compete than a big one does.

One data point that seems relevant to me is that the previous gen qwen Qwen3.6-27b was not so different in performance from its sibling model Qwen3.6-35b-a3b. We never got a qwen3.8-35b-a3b, but if we had, would the gap have stayed the same or gotten bigger? I.e. would the quality gains by improving training coming up against a hard limitation with 35b, or not.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#320
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yea, but they would have to become insolvent in a way that makes compute lose value. The reason Nvidia is comfortable making these deals is because if OpenAI can’t use the compute, someone else can. Granted OpenAI going insolvent likely means a drop in the value of compute…

> if OpenAI can’t use the compute, someone else can. The problem with that is that OpenAI can only afford to pay for the compute because they are burning investor money (and so are most of OpenAI's biggest clients). They are losing billions. If they stop burning money, nobody else will be there to pay for that compute at OpenAI's cost. Sure, somebody will probably be able to use these GPUs, they just won't be able to…

OpenAI and Anthropic are so far ahead of anyone else in terms of compute demand generation. Iirc correctly they're like 70% of GPU demand between them on hyperscalers and then Meta is 10% and Google internal demand is some distance behind meta. If OAI halved in generation you would need a couple of new companies with a Metas worth of demand to replace it is quite a sobering thought.
Post reply on HN