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Nvidia is the central bank of AI

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Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#131
post #89

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Private banks increase money supply by lending. If 10 people deposit $1000 in a bank, it can loan $9000 to an 11th person. Now the economy has $19000 total.

The $9000 has to be paid back, and then some. I sure hope you aren't an accountant.

It's a simplification to help people understand, but this is in the spirit of how things work because the value in the economy is not the money, but the goods and services that get created in the economy as a consequence of it. Most constructive uses of financial instruments in the markets (stocks, bonds, mutual funds, etc) are about efficient reallocation of money to enable value creation while balancing different risks, and people who provide this money indirectly benefit from this value creation via interest, dividends, selling stock at a higher price, etc.

Now to expand GP's example (still simplified):

- A borrows $100k money to pay B toward building a house. B puts $100k in their bank.

- C borrows $90k from B's bank toward building a house to pay D. D puts $90k in their bank.

- etc

So, houses were created (or other services were provided), and that's the real multiplicative factor. If banks loan out 90% of the cash stored (i.e. keep 10% in reserve [1]), the multiplicative factor of value creation in the economy is 10x the original amount of cash deposited in the first bank.

Now, if all of us withdrew our savings at once or sold all our stocks at once, we would have an economic shock analogous to that which resulted the Great Depression. That's why for banks, we have FDIC insurance - to mitigate such a panic so that money can serve its value-multiplicative role when it's not being actively used for anything else by the person owning the money. That's also why a positive (but low) inflation was originally considered economically healthy - so that people put their money in banks/market rather than under their mattresses gradually losing value. When interest rates are low, that encourages people to put their money into riskier (non-FDIC-insured) investments with higher growth potential, like a balanced portfolio of stocks/bonds/etc to avoid losing value to inflation, resulting in more economic growth.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional-reserve_banking

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe a dumb question but how is NVIDIA increasing the total supply of money? Only the fed can actually order more money to be "created". Private companies can only work within the existing supply, that is, their reserves, no?

Private banks increase money supply by lending. If 10 people deposit $1000 in a bank, it can loan $9000 to an 11th person. Now the economy has $19000 total.

> Private banks increase money supply by lending. If 10 people deposit $1000 in a bank, it can loan $9000 to an 11th person

It's the other way around. When a bank loans someone $1,000, they create a $1,000 deposit (their liability) and a $1,000 asset (their loan). Loans create deposits.

The Treasury can mint coin. But that's basically negligible in modern economies.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#133

I've always found it interesting when corporations start acting like public institutions. When traditionally philosophical, social contract ideas apply to things like corporate governance. Or like here, where private structures get powerful and important enough to resemble government structures. The ideas we deal with when we discuss society and organization aren't exclusive to government, they relate to human nature…

Yeah its soooo interesting! Totally not dystopian, just soooo interesting and fascinating to ponder these scenarios in which corporations hold equal power to national governments!

Just such a curious scenario to let your mind wander about, how society would look like in these scenarios!

/s

I'm honestly so sick of the suspense of disbelief on this site, how is this more "interesting" to you, than the absolute sheer terror you should feel about going back to feudalism and serfdom? A typical western national state ensures that you have basic rights as a human being and aren't exploited to the death by non-government entities.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

M2 is $21 trillion, which is what the fed signed up to backstop. How much did NVDA sign up to backstop?

> which is what the fed signed up to backstop No, it's not. M2 includes things like traveler's cheques and money-market funds.

Ok how much did the fed sign up to backstop then? Surely it’s more than physical currency

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're advertising DLSS5 just now though. > I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought I feel your reasoning is very weird. Are they losing money by selling consumer GPU? Just because the profit isn't that much compared to AI it doesn't mean that it's negative, and for-profit companies are not known for leaving money on the table. Apple doesn't reveal how much Ap…

NVidia is limited by the number of chips they can produce. If you can fab 1000 chips, and can sell some for $500 and some for $80000 what are you going to do? The game GPU is at once profitable, but causes them to give up far more profits than they're gaining from it. They're maintaining the game market to have multiple markets and not go all in, but it's strategic hedging at this point. When NVidia makes a gaming GP…

This almost seems like we need a strategic reserve for semiconductors- kinda like we have it for food, to prevent suppliers from throwing it away when they are suddenly able to sell something much more lucrative.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> which is what the fed signed up to backstop No, it's not. M2 includes things like traveler's cheques and money-market funds.

Ok how much did the fed sign up to backstop then? Surely it’s more than physical currency

> how much did the fed sign up to backstop then? Surely it’s more than physical currency

The Fed doesn't backstop physical currency. That is issued by the Treasury (specifically, the Mint). The FDIC backstops bank deposits; the U.S. guarantees is obligations.

The Fed doesn't properly "backstop" anything. It's the lender of last resort–if you have a Treasury or other good collateral, it will loan you money against it. It's a financial regulator. And it regulates interest rates (i.e. the price of money) to influence inflation and employment.

The only backstops the Fed truly makes are to banks, by guaranteeing to always stand ready to lend against Treasuries and other good collateral.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#137
post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“as long as it’s cash flow continues” is doing a lot of optimistic heavy lifting. The whole premise of the circular financing worry is that Nvidia sits in the middle of all the guarantees made to companies like OpenAI. If any of those companies become insolvent, Nvidia is on the hook for it. Also Nvidia isn’t really creating money. The 500B number is third party capital that already exists (BX, Apollo, etc).

Yea, but they would have to become insolvent in a way that makes compute lose value. The reason Nvidia is comfortable making these deals is because if OpenAI can’t use the compute, someone else can. Granted OpenAI going insolvent likely means a drop in the value of compute…

Compute has already lost value for me. Six months ago I thought you needed a 1T+ model to be useful coding. Now I am able to get by just fine with a 27b model.

I see two factors converging to cause a collapse of this house of cards:

1. People are realizing that what they need isn't more general intelligence, it's more specialization. A small but well tuned coding model, a small but well tuned customer service model, a small but well tuned document explorer.

2. Specialized hardware - TPUs and NPUs - especially coming out of china. The latest GLM model was trained and runs on Huawei hardware. Nvidia is only worth so much because they are the biggest and best provider of the kind of compute needed to run llms, but the export bans mean china has a lot of incentive to topple that monopoly.

The amount of compute we need to do the things llms do is falling rapidly, the number of people who can provide that compute is rising.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#138

How many top signals like this article do you need to see before you exit the market? Let’s look to the past: https://www.history.com/articles/1929-stock-market-crash-war...

What indication do you see that we will see a slow down in model capabilities or AI use?

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#139
post #88

> worth around $5.4trn Note that the Fed has a $6.7tn balance sheet [1]. (This is a silly comparison. But still fun.) The real comparison: Nvidia's $500+ billion of investments and commitments [2] is substantially more than any easing the Fed has done in the same time [3]. Monetarily, Nvidia is creating a lot of money in our economy. The good news: I have seen no evidence Nvidia has borrowed against its stock or othe…

Its stock could crash without causing–as long as its cash flows continue–a credit crisis through its investments and commitments Uh, that’s a pretty load-bearing as long as its cash flows continue . The two things are surely correlated.

"Uh, that’s a pretty load-bearing as long as its cash flows continue. The two things are surely correlated."

Ppl have made the prediction of it being a bubble or unsustainable since 2022. At this point, it's hard to say these people have credibility anymore. Ai is big enough, much like Google in 2005 or Facebook/Social Network in 2010 or apps in 2015, that it's an institution unto itself. It's not going to just crash as so many are expecting and have been wrong the past 4 years about.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#140

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ok how much did the fed sign up to backstop then? Surely it’s more than physical currency

> how much did the fed sign up to backstop then? Surely it’s more than physical currency The Fed doesn't backstop physical currency. That is issued by the Treasury (specifically, the Mint). The FDIC backstops bank deposits; the U.S. guarantees is obligations. The Fed doesn't properly "backstop" anything. It's the lender of last resort–if you have a Treasury or other good collateral, it will loan you money against it.…

“Federal reserve note”

You are taking this too literally anyway. I know they don’t backstop jack squat but in practice there is a fed put.

Have a conversation with me, don’t be a pedant.

If you are saying they will lend last resort against treasuries you should know there are $40 trillion of those outstanding…

How about what’s the amount from banks that the fed would willing lend as a last resort?

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