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Nvidia is the central bank of AI

economist.com

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Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#41

Post by raincole »

thrownawaysz wrote: post #32
raincole wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're advertising DLSS5 just now though. > I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought I feel your reasoning is very weird. Are they losing money by selling consumer GPU? Just because the profit isn't that much compared to AI it doesn't mean that it's negative, and for-profit companies are not known for leaving money on the table. Apple doesn't reveal how much Ap…

Which is distinctly different both in purpose and technology than the previous versions. DLSS 5 is no longer about frame improvements. It’s about increasing graphical fidelity with active AI rendering. DLSS 5 is trying to relight and retexture the scene using AI. DLSS 4 is just trying to take a lower quality image and upscale it using AI

Thank for explaining what DLSS5 is! I don't think it has anything to do with "Nvidia is going to give up gaming market" narrative though.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#42

Post by tccole »

Mistletoe wrote: post #24

How many top signals like this article do you need to see before you exit the market? Let’s look to the past: https://www.history.com/articles/1929-stock-market-crash-war...

As the saying goes. The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#43

Post by Waterluvian »

delusional wrote: post #36
Waterluvian wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Maybe this is silly of me, but maybe gaming would enjoy an era of hardware upgrades being rather unviable so the focus turns to optimization and aesthetic.

A retraction from the gaming market wouldn't necessarily mean they'd still even produce the current crop of products. I could (and I would argue would) involve a complete shuttering of the GeForce brand, halting current production. On the assumption that Intel and AMD would follow, that wouldn't be an end of upgrades, but an end to the market.

Gaming is a larger market than Hollywood. Maybe it becomes a distraction for Nvidia, but someone will step in. That might actually be a good thing and why Nvidia wont do that: it creates an under served market in which newcomers can cut their teeth.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#44

Post by selectodude »

thrownawaysz wrote: post #13

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

It's still a 15B market for Nvidia, it's not nothing. But I'm curious how they're going to turn Rubin into a gaming GPU. I think at this point consumer GPU upgrades are going to be AI-related upgrades that happen to also help raster capabilities. Blackwell was already kind of a dud on performance uplift from Ada beyond the new LLM features.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#45

Post by rootusrootus »

raincole wrote: post #20
thrownawaysz wrote: post #13

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

They're advertising DLSS5 just now though. > I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought I feel your reasoning is very weird. Are they losing money by selling consumer GPU? Just because the profit isn't that much compared to AI it doesn't mean that it's negative, and for-profit companies are not known for leaving money on the table. Apple doesn't reveal how much Ap…

An alternative example would be Apple & the Mini 12 & 13. They made money on those, too, but here we are.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#46

Post by nerevarthelame »

thrownawaysz wrote: post #13

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

I think they'll keep the gaming market alive for a while because renting gaming hardware from the cloud (GeForce NOW) is very congruous with AI keeping consumer hardware prices sky-high.

It continues modern trend of chow companies don't want consumers to truly own anything. Finance a car, pay a monthly subscription fee for heated seats, rent a phone, stream a movie, get rid of physical media, rent a GPU.

But if GeForce NOW doesn't take off, and they get convinced that the AI bubble will not pop, I could see them pulling a Micron and ending their consumer product lines.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#47

Post by jmalicki »

raincole wrote: post #20
thrownawaysz wrote: post #13

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

They're advertising DLSS5 just now though. > I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought I feel your reasoning is very weird. Are they losing money by selling consumer GPU? Just because the profit isn't that much compared to AI it doesn't mean that it's negative, and for-profit companies are not known for leaving money on the table. Apple doesn't reveal how much Ap…

NVidia is limited by the number of chips they can produce.

If you can fab 1000 chips, and can sell some for $500 and some for $80000 what are you going to do?

The game GPU is at once profitable, but causes them to give up far more profits than they're gaining from it.

They're maintaining the game market to have multiple markets and not go all in, but it's strategic hedging at this point. When NVidia makes a gaming GPU instead of a data center GPU they are leaving money on the table in the short term since they're constrained at the fab level.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#49

Post by JumpCrisscross »

> worth around $5.4trn

Note that the Fed has a $6.7tn balance sheet [1]. (This is a silly comparison. But still fun.)

The real comparison: Nvidia's $500+ billion of investments and commitments [2] is substantially more than any easing the Fed has done in the same time [3]. Monetarily, Nvidia is creating a lot of money in our economy.

The good news: I have seen no evidence Nvidia has borrowed against its stock or otherwise linked its equity value to these commitments. Its stock could crash without causing–as long as its cash flows continue–a credit crisis through its investments and commitments.

[1] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

[2] https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581026...

[3] https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttren...

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#50

Post by pdpi »

thrownawaysz wrote: post #13

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

> Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

It's kind of weird. nVidia kind of has the PC market cornered, but AMD has had the last couple of generations of Xbox and Playstation. Also, they power the Steam Deck/Machine, and Valve has been contributing a lot of AMD graphics features into the Linux drivers. There is a world where AMD (and maybe even Linux on AMD specifically) becomes the de facto standard for gaming.

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