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Nvidia is the central bank of AI

economist.com

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Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#51
post #35
post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

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While I dislike this take, when the dust settles we will have compute clusters orders of magnitude larger than anything that existed in 2023. If demand vanishes for the 3 million cards Amazon just bought, then something will be done with them. The AI market may end up in a bizarre jepson's paradox of rotation between inference use cases and model training.

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Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#53
post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I really don't think it's an if question but a when Nvidia still will ship gaming products. The upcoming RTX Spark laptop APUs are still gaming-capable - we also have Blackwell gaming GPUs and the Nvidia-powered Nintendo Switch 2. People echoed this sentiment during the crypto mining crunch, and we still got gaming hardware designs after that blew over. One of CUDA's core value props is the consumer market, and Nvi…

I don't think crypto is comparable. They barely made some dedicated crypto GPUs that market was always fickle due to ASCIs. Look at the nvidia revenue breakdown chart, the AI boom looks quite different. https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/nvidias-revenue-fro...

> that market was always fickle due to ASCIs.

The GPU crunch came because cards like the 3060 were extremely cheap and could outrun most sub-$1000 ASICs at the time. The dedicated crypto GPUs were too-little too-late; hundreds of thousands of ordinary CUDA-capable GPUs had already been repurposed for mining by the time they launched.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#54
post #26

If Nvidia is a bank, it's an Islamic Bank. They don't take interest (usury), they share profits and risk. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_banking_and_finance Imagine a scenario where the AI bubble bursts and AI companies and neoclouds go bankrupt en masse, and then a huge rebound occurs when AI has a delayed takeoff. Nvidia ends up with a massive amount of compute on its hands from its backstop deals, and it al…

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I find "bro" and "dudebro" to be such fascinating slurs. The previous incarnation was "neckbeard" / "obese dude living in mom's basement", so "dudebro" comes across almost like a compliment.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#56

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

You must not be paying attention, they already have.

Intel is going nowhere but we all knew that anyways.

And again, you must not be paying attention, AMD is doing exactly what they said they would. No flagship for RDNA4 (just like RDNA2), RDNA5 flagship (10900 XT) coming right on schedule

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#57

> worth around $5.4trn Note that the Fed has a $6.7tn balance sheet [1]. (This is a silly comparison. But still fun.) The real comparison: Nvidia's $500+ billion of investments and commitments [2] is substantially more than any easing the Fed has done in the same time [3]. Monetarily, Nvidia is creating a lot of money in our economy. The good news: I have seen no evidence Nvidia has borrowed against its stock or othe…

It would also follow that by increasing the money supply significantly they’re also contributing to inflation a great deal correct? (Given the rest of the economy is not growing at near the same rate as the AI industry)

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#58

I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.

They're advertising DLSS5 just now though. > I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought I feel your reasoning is very weird. Are they losing money by selling consumer GPU? Just because the profit isn't that much compared to AI it doesn't mean that it's negative, and for-profit companies are not known for leaving money on the table. Apple doesn't reveal how much Ap…

Nvidia is limited by the number of engineers they have. It might turn out that the AI market is so lucrative that it’s best to reallocate their gaming-focused engineers to AI.

Apple TV is at least a growth market for them, whereas gaming is sort of capped and clearly a tiny piece of nvidia’s revenue atm.

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#59
post #4

And what is TSMC in this analogy?

A platform: aka the foundation under the bank. The material cement that allows chips to exist above it. And the platform is made of time: ours.

If TSMC is a platform, then why doesn't it have an App Store?

Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI

#60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're advertising DLSS5 just now though. > I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought I feel your reasoning is very weird. Are they losing money by selling consumer GPU? Just because the profit isn't that much compared to AI it doesn't mean that it's negative, and for-profit companies are not known for leaving money on the table. Apple doesn't reveal how much Ap…

NVidia is limited by the number of chips they can produce. If you can fab 1000 chips, and can sell some for $500 and some for $80000 what are you going to do? The game GPU is at once profitable, but causes them to give up far more profits than they're gaining from it. They're maintaining the game market to have multiple markets and not go all in, but it's strategic hedging at this point. When NVidia makes a gaming GP…

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