And what is TSMC in this analogy?
do they lend money to their customers to buy their own chips?
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Nvidia is the central bank of AI
11–20 of 363 posts
Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI
#12The Japanese economy and yen carry trade is a close second.Rising oul prices and reduced output due to the conflicts in the Middle East could filter through to increasing yields on Japanese debt. In turn, the yen interventions have to continue to keep it lower than 160, which seems to be the psychological barrier for the yen carry trade.
I view the market as celestial objects influencing each other through a lattice similar to spacetime
Everything influences each other with varying gravitational pull
At one point the mental model was more like a web, but spacetime with mass matches the model more closely
Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI
#13I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.
Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI
#14If Nvidia is a bank, it's an Islamic Bank. They don't take interest (usury), they share profits and risk.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_banking_and_finance
Imagine a scenario where the AI bubble bursts and AI companies and neoclouds go bankrupt en masse, and then a huge rebound occurs when AI has a delayed takeoff. Nvidia ends up with a massive amount of compute on its hands from its backstop deals, and it also owns assets from failed companies when profits start to grow. New startups running using Hugging take the place of OpenAI and Anthropic when their compute assets are divided between survivors like Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta.
If/when there is an AI crash, any number of small startups can buy compute for the price of electricity without anyone wanting to buy them. That is when the real innovation happens. The top of the hype cycle is usually more about getting rich quick and buying and shutting down competition.
Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI
#15Should there be a LIBOR for 1GB VRAM set each morning?
Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI
#16Okay, but at some point these investments need to start turning profits; the financing NVDA has arranged is temporary, and private credit needs returns at some point. The overinvestment in AI will lead to a downturn in the capital cycle.
Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI
#17I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.
AAA gaming is cooked, and AMD/Intel is plenty able to support indie to AA needs.
Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI
#18Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI
#19I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.
Eh, AMD makes a lot of video game console SoCs. If you look at the steam hardware survey most people are running ancient computers.
Re: Nvidia is the central bank of AI
#20I wonder when they will give up on the gaming market because that could take down several publishers and developers. I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought at this point (they removed the standalone gaming revenue report from the financial reports this summer). Also I don't think AMD and Intel is capable "to step in" to replace them.
They're advertising DLSS5 just now though.
> I really don't think it's an if question but a when because it almost feels like an afterthought
I feel your reasoning is very weird. Are they losing money by selling consumer GPU? Just because the profit isn't that much compared to AI it doesn't mean that it's negative, and for-profit companies are not known for leaving money on the table. Apple doesn't reveal how much Apple TV+ makes for them either but I don't see it be gone anytime soon.