SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030 • Hacker News Board

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#81

Post by greycol » Mon, Aug 31, 2026, 8:59 PM UTC

my-huge-pony wrote: post #76

mey wrote: post #2

No projections/information/analysis. The statement from someone with a vested interest in this demand lasting an extended period of time (including the statement that demand will continue past 2030).

In theory, shouldn't he say exactly the opposite thing if this was the goal? If demand is projected continue for a long time, this may encourage more competitors to enter this space, so supply will increase. On the other hand if everyone thought that the demand will end soon, nobody would invest in more capacity and shortage would last longer. I think this is just for short term shareholder profit.

No because, some companies know they'll need ram, but they may have some leeway on timing (i.e. doing more to prolong the life of systems they'd typically replace). That means to guarantee ram they need to enter an agreement to buy the ram now. By setting the expectation that these prices continue or get worse companies that may have put off agreeing to these terms locking in prices based on demand rather than something closer to the cost of production. The agreements that these companies are being forced to make are upfront payment and then a top up to meet current market prices before delivery, there is no downside for these ram companies whether the price rises or falls (at worst they end up with supply that was already payed for by a bust company at a healthy margin and a glut in the market that would arrive anyway)

Competitors are going to come online anyway because of the threat of chip embargoes against China that mean they are investing in production regardless of what the outside world is doing.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#82

Post by alephnerd » Mon, Aug 31, 2026, 9:38 PM UTC

Danox wrote: post #67

nashashmi wrote: post #37

Given the possibility of setting up new memory fab plants takes 10 years, given that data companies are spending money on power plants based on power consumption forecasts, but are not spending on memory fab plants, I take it that data companies are seeing the current memory makers as sufficient for their needs. Meaning if the avg consumer is going to buy memory, they are going to have to fork a whole lot more money…

It takes $10-$20 billion dollars and 2 to 4 years to set up a foundry, TSMC took about four years to set up their location in Arizona and there is a hell of a lot more involved with what they do. It’s not impossible to do it in less time the Chinese certainly will. If a company is motivated and has the money they can get it done. I think those three memory companies are counting on people to be stupid. Intel, Nvidia,…

Foundries aren't the blocker - it's packaging and OSAT that's the blocker.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#83

Post by bigbadfeline » Mon, Aug 31, 2026, 11:09 PM UTC

my-huge-pony wrote: post #76

mey wrote: post #2

No projections/information/analysis. The statement from someone with a vested interest in this demand lasting an extended period of time (including the statement that demand will continue past 2030).

In theory, shouldn't he say exactly the opposite thing if this was the goal? If demand is projected continue for a long time, this may encourage more competitors to enter this space, so supply will increase. On the other hand if everyone thought that the demand will end soon, nobody would invest in more capacity and shortage would last longer. I think this is just for short term shareholder profit.

> If demand is projected continue for a long time, this may encourage more competitors to enter this space, so supply will increase.

There are no competitors that can muster the capital to make decent RAM... other than China but China is under a heavy sanctions and tariffs regime, when Apple mentioned using Chinese RAM to ease pricing they were quickly shushed by above.

The current monopolists aren't building new capacity either or are simply pretending to do it. It's a planned monopoly market for reasons I can only speculate about.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#84

Post by well_ackshually » Tue, Sep 01, 2026, 6:53 AM UTC

fakedang wrote: post #79

well_ackshually wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's chips that work just as well, except that they make the original poster sad because china bad.

Are we still fooling ourselves thinking that China is such a benevolent manufacturing partner? I don't mind China - heck, I've even had dinner with some CCP honchos and would gladly partner with the Chinese given the right opportunity. But you're deluding yourself if you think Chinese devices aren't backdoored. We had to strip all of our office infra from Huawei to Ericsson and Axis after we found that practically ev…

That only bothers you because you're American. For everyone else, our hardware and software has already been phoning back home to Langley for decades, it's only fair the Chinese can get a piece of it too.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#85

Post by apple4ever » Tue, Sep 01, 2026, 10:19 PM UTC

bigbadfeline wrote: post #83

my-huge-pony wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In theory, shouldn't he say exactly the opposite thing if this was the goal? If demand is projected continue for a long time, this may encourage more competitors to enter this space, so supply will increase. On the other hand if everyone thought that the demand will end soon, nobody would invest in more capacity and shortage would last longer. I think this is just for short term shareholder profit.

> If demand is projected continue for a long time, this may encourage more competitors to enter this space, so supply will increase. There are no competitors that can muster the capital to make decent RAM... other than China but China is under a heavy sanctions and tariffs regime, when Apple mentioned using Chinese RAM to ease pricing they were quickly shushed by above. The current monopolists aren't building new cap…

But the longer it goes on, the more desirable it looks to new entrants.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#86

Post by fakedang » Wed, Sep 02, 2026, 7:55 AM UTC

well_ackshually wrote: post #84

fakedang wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are we still fooling ourselves thinking that China is such a benevolent manufacturing partner? I don't mind China - heck, I've even had dinner with some CCP honchos and would gladly partner with the Chinese given the right opportunity. But you're deluding yourself if you think Chinese devices aren't backdoored. We had to strip all of our office infra from Huawei to Ericsson and Axis after we found that practically ev…

That only bothers you because you're American. For everyone else, our hardware and software has already been phoning back home to Langley for decades, it's only fair the Chinese can get a piece of it too.

Lol, I'm not American.