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SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

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Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#71

Post by Danox »

porridgeraisin wrote: post #55
dgellow wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who are those ram bottleneck skeptics you’re referring to? I cannot see them. I don’t know anyone who isn’t aware the AI rollout is responsible for years to come of bottleneck of HBM and other hardware

Just see the top of this thread. The theme of the comments is that the SK Hynix, Micron, etc CEOs are lying about this in order to collectively increase prices artificially.

They are they are taking future IOU from AI companies and presenting that as an actual sale and telling the other people/customers who need memory right away, you have to pay more.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#72

Post by Danox »

fakedang wrote: post #24

Memory chip shortage lasting *until China floods the market with their cheaper but rigged chips. FTFY. At the rate China's moving on this, it won't be long till they get a stranglehold on the consumer chip market.

The Chinese will use this stupidity by the memory cartel to get into the worldwide memory market it is a perfect entry point and they will sell to anyone who wants to buy no strings attached.

All you need to do is look at the way they do business across the world. They don’t want to be your mama and they don’t wanna be your daddy. They just want to close a business deal. The art of selling and trading is a hell of a lot older in China than the so-called communist party which only dates from 1921 in China. In short labeling them communist is very shortsighted The culture is thousands of years old.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#74

Post by Danox »

catigula wrote: post #4

Aren't they printing unlimited money from this? I'm sure the chip shortage lasts as long as they're capable of extending it without falling to competitors. That's the problem with monopolies.

I am confident it will be their last big payday for the Cartel the Chinese certainly will design around it and move on and probably will go onto dominate the worldwide market after 2028. Afterwards Micron like Intel will go around begging for support. Using future buying IOUs to set prices, it’s going to bite them in the ass.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#75

Post by catigula »

Danox wrote: post #74
catigula wrote: post #4

Aren't they printing unlimited money from this? I'm sure the chip shortage lasts as long as they're capable of extending it without falling to competitors. That's the problem with monopolies.

I am confident it will be their last big payday for the Cartel the Chinese certainly will design around it and move on and probably will go onto dominate the worldwide market after 2028. Afterwards Micron like Intel will go around begging for support. Using future buying IOUs to set prices, it’s going to bite them in the ass.

China will eventually do similar things if they're allowed to become a unitary supplier, but while they're establishing their foothold obviously they can't.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#76

Post by my-huge-pony »

mey wrote: post #2

No projections/information/analysis. The statement from someone with a vested interest in this demand lasting an extended period of time (including the statement that demand will continue past 2030).

In theory, shouldn't he say exactly the opposite thing if this was the goal?

If demand is projected continue for a long time, this may encourage more competitors to enter this space, so supply will increase.

On the other hand if everyone thought that the demand will end soon, nobody would invest in more capacity and shortage would last longer.

I think this is just for short term shareholder profit.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#77

Post by porridgeraisin »

Danox wrote: post #71
porridgeraisin wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just see the top of this thread. The theme of the comments is that the SK Hynix, Micron, etc CEOs are lying about this in order to collectively increase prices artificially.

They are they are taking future IOU from AI companies and presenting that as an actual sale and telling the other people/customers who need memory right away, you have to pay more.

No, semi fabs do not take IOUs or other similar. They only do prepayments and non cancellable take or pay contracts. The money is here and real.

There is a lot of SPV backed financial engineering upstream, but not here.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#78

Post by alephnerd »

porridgeraisin wrote: post #54
alephnerd wrote: post #15

Honestly surprised by the degree of skepticism about this on HN. The rack assemblers like Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo have 18 to 24 month backlogs on deliveries at the moment, and even the neoclouds have 6-9 month backlogs to onboard customers onto their SaaS platforms, and 12-24 month backlogs for delivering bare metal. All those require memory. Also, 2030 is barely 3 years away from now as 2027 is around the…

Some of the backlogs apart from the "top level" one are not being viewed that positively from what I have heard. One of my football friends works at Vertiv's India office, soon transferring to Thane, they basically sell cooling infra for these hyperscalers. They have an insane amount of backlogs but because they are a "spoke" component, the backlog is super volatile. Like some power generation related delay or permit…

Yep. DCs are extremely capex heavy, so these backlogs can make or break entire projects and are super high risk as a result. That's why tax holidays and subsidizes have become so common for these projects.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#79

Post by fakedang »

well_ackshually wrote: post #39
alex43578 wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What’s a “rigged” chip in this context?

It's chips that work just as well, except that they make the original poster sad because china bad.

Are we still fooling ourselves thinking that China is such a benevolent manufacturing partner? I don't mind China - heck, I've even had dinner with some CCP honchos and would gladly partner with the Chinese given the right opportunity. But you're deluding yourself if you think Chinese devices aren't backdoored.

We had to strip all of our office infra from Huawei to Ericsson and Axis after we found that practically everything Chinese was phoning back to home and sending GBs of data cumulatively.

You can respect an adversary without needing to trust them.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#80

Post by fakedang »

Danox wrote: post #72
fakedang wrote: post #24

Memory chip shortage lasting *until China floods the market with their cheaper but rigged chips. FTFY. At the rate China's moving on this, it won't be long till they get a stranglehold on the consumer chip market.

The Chinese will use this stupidity by the memory cartel to get into the worldwide memory market it is a perfect entry point and they will sell to anyone who wants to buy no strings attached. All you need to do is look at the way they do business across the world. They don’t want to be your mama and they don’t wanna be your daddy. They just want to close a business deal. The art of selling and trading is a hell of a…

Every time China visits, we get a hospital; every time the West visits, we get a lecture. - some African dude.

Honestly I don't mind the Chinese approach - at least you don't get bullied, unlike dealing with America. Of course, experiences vary if you're in their sphere of influence.

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