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SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

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Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#51

Post by porridgeraisin »

boredhedgehog wrote: post #33
vlucas wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Same. There is huge, real demand for memory and storage everywhere you look. New capacity takes 3-5 years to come online. Every vendor has completely sold out capacity and is backlogged on top of that. This 5-year estimate is actually pretty realistic to me. I think we are stuck with high prices on these components for at least the next 3 years, minimum.

> New capacity takes 3-5 years to come online. Why should that be set in stone? Surely there are corners that can be cut if there's so much profit on the table.

At a basic level, the steps involved in setting up a fab are extremely serial in nature. While there are ways in which each step has been cost-cut in the past, amdahl's law itself limits it to a minimum of 2-3 years. If you want good yields and do it more properly, you will need 3-5 like GP said. And that is still being optimistic

Additionally, HBM requires 3+ times the capacity of DRAM, so it gets crowded out. They do command 5x margins, so the unit economics is ok. But this means that even new capacity will mostly be used to service HBM demand, and consumer or enterprise DRAM is unlikely to benefit at the same pace - it will benefit somewhat of course.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#52

Post by dgellow »

alephnerd wrote: post #15

Honestly surprised by the degree of skepticism about this on HN. The rack assemblers like Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo have 18 to 24 month backlogs on deliveries at the moment, and even the neoclouds have 6-9 month backlogs to onboard customers onto their SaaS platforms, and 12-24 month backlogs for delivering bare metal. All those require memory. Also, 2030 is barely 3 years away from now as 2027 is around the…

Who are those ram bottleneck skeptics you’re referring to? I cannot see them. I don’t know anyone who isn’t aware the AI rollout is responsible for years to come of bottleneck of HBM and other hardware

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#53

Post by simongr3dal »

2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #27
Aloha wrote: post #22

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I dont think he's wrong. Dell is making moves to introduce server grade hardware without ECC memory. There is plenty of DDR5, its not even very expensive, its DDR5-ECC where the prices go stratospheric.

The point is that he must say this either way. If he expected demand to decline next year do you think he would come out and say that?

Why not? The income statements can’t lie. And if those fall short of expectations then the stock market is also gonna grill you.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#54

Post by porridgeraisin »

alephnerd wrote: post #15

Honestly surprised by the degree of skepticism about this on HN. The rack assemblers like Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo have 18 to 24 month backlogs on deliveries at the moment, and even the neoclouds have 6-9 month backlogs to onboard customers onto their SaaS platforms, and 12-24 month backlogs for delivering bare metal. All those require memory. Also, 2030 is barely 3 years away from now as 2027 is around the…

Some of the backlogs apart from the "top level" one are not being viewed that positively from what I have heard. One of my football friends works at Vertiv's India office, soon transferring to Thane, they basically sell cooling infra for these hyperscalers. They have an insane amount of backlogs but because they are a "spoke" component, the backlog is super volatile. Like some power generation related delay or permit issue will randomly de-scale or cancel projects. And its really difficult to calculate risk of all that and maintain the book.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#55

Post by porridgeraisin »

dgellow wrote: post #52
alephnerd wrote: post #15

Honestly surprised by the degree of skepticism about this on HN. The rack assemblers like Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo have 18 to 24 month backlogs on deliveries at the moment, and even the neoclouds have 6-9 month backlogs to onboard customers onto their SaaS platforms, and 12-24 month backlogs for delivering bare metal. All those require memory. Also, 2030 is barely 3 years away from now as 2027 is around the…

Who are those ram bottleneck skeptics you’re referring to? I cannot see them. I don’t know anyone who isn’t aware the AI rollout is responsible for years to come of bottleneck of HBM and other hardware

Just see the top of this thread. The theme of the comments is that the SK Hynix, Micron, etc CEOs are lying about this in order to collectively increase prices artificially.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#56

Post by 2OEH8eoCRo0 »

simongr3dal wrote: post #53
2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The point is that he must say this either way. If he expected demand to decline next year do you think he would come out and say that?

Why not? The income statements can’t lie. And if those fall short of expectations then the stock market is also gonna grill you.

Why wouldn't a memory CEO go on tv and say they expect the AI bubble to pop by the end of the year?

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#57

Post by actionfromafar »

drob518 wrote: post #47
throw234259 wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> everyone is gonna jump into the market Whom exactly? Korea and Taiwan are already saturated. EU may take 5 yearrs just to approve plans formnew factory. US is interested in super fast super duper AIG, ddr5 is way too boring. Only competitor is mainlaind china!

DDR5 might be boring, but the high prices are strangling the tech market, including AI. It can’t keep this up much longer. Someone needs to step up and make more. I’m surprised the USA hasn’t offered money to TSMC, Intel, or Micron to expand manufacturing under the CHIPS act or whatever to help ease this shortage.

As soon as they figure out how to grift money to the Trump family. But they have such a backlog, it might take a while to figure out the details.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#58

Post by DuckConference »

alephnerd wrote: post #15

Honestly surprised by the degree of skepticism about this on HN. The rack assemblers like Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Lenovo have 18 to 24 month backlogs on deliveries at the moment, and even the neoclouds have 6-9 month backlogs to onboard customers onto their SaaS platforms, and 12-24 month backlogs for delivering bare metal. All those require memory. Also, 2030 is barely 3 years away from now as 2027 is around the…

Those skeptical are anticipating a possible large drop in demand before that backlog clears. ie. a change in market conditions that means that many of the orders in that backlog would be cancelled or belong to bankrupt entities.

Many words have already been spilled as to whether or not that might happen, so I'll just shrug rather than adding to them.

Re: SK Hynix CEO sees memory chip shortage lasting until 2030

#60

Post by dgellow »

porridgeraisin wrote: post #55
dgellow wrote: post #52

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Who are those ram bottleneck skeptics you’re referring to? I cannot see them. I don’t know anyone who isn’t aware the AI rollout is responsible for years to come of bottleneck of HBM and other hardware

Just see the top of this thread. The theme of the comments is that the SK Hynix, Micron, etc CEOs are lying about this in order to collectively increase prices artificially.

I mean, they do. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t a bottleneck. They control the supply and are taking advantage of the situation to increase their margin as much as they can while limiting their expansion (they have some valid arguments though, given the memory cycles). And it is for sure to their advantage to have the industry accept their high margins for years to come.

I read the threads and don’t see unwarranted skepticism

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