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Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

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Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#111

Post by tonfa »

throwaway473825 wrote: post #57
anon7000 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, I think you made some good points, but at the same time, humans have become better at handling the climate because we’ve been able to predict it and have found solutions to certain known issues. What happens when it gets less predictable, like when certain regions get much less water for an extended period, is very much unknown. Your last claim makes no sense. Is there actually a widespread political effort to…

Regarding air conditioning in Europe, I suspect that there are other interests at play given that there has been zero pushback against air conditioning in cars. Air conditioning in buildings is likely viewed as a threat to gas providers as most modern cooling devices also have a heating mode that competes directly with gas heating.

> Air conditioning in buildings is likely viewed as a threat to gas providers as most modern cooling devices also have a heating mode that competes directly with gas heating.

Not sure it makes sense, most of those countries are already phasing out fuel/gas boilers.

IMO it's just cultural shift is slow to adjust (in those countries, a few decades ago AC would have been a wasteful luxury, summer temperature would be well below 30 except for a few days).

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#112

Post by roenxi »

hvb2 wrote: post #107
roenxi wrote: post #102

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you think that is going to happen, you can buy up some supplies and store them yourself. I have relatives with some impressive and substantial pantries because they're prepared to be snowed in for an extended period of time. Running out of food is possible the least novel problem humanity has ever encountered. And what would you rather happen? If they don't store up a surplus then everyone will run out of food and…

The world is bigger than your relatives. I'm sure he was referring to already food insecure places. The rich countries will have food available, probably at elevated prices. In places where there's actual famine people will do crazy things to get their hands on food.

If the plan isn't to stockpile food communally through a big corporation making a tidy profit for being well prepared in a disaster, and it isn't to stockpile it personally... what is the plan? There won't be any food.

There are very limited options here. Those two are, by far, the two best ones for reliably being able to access food. Someone has to build up a reserve. Literally, you should to be able to point someone out and say "this person will give me food next month, they've got a stockpile for this drought".

Ideally that someone who is very, very motivated to get it right and make it happen. Those big corporations charging extra are going to keep people fed.

> The world is bigger than your relatives.

I offer no commentary on the size of my relatives vs. the rest of the world :)

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#113

Post by murkt »

mh- wrote: post #32
chasd00 wrote: post #28

Looking forward to Fall rain in North Texas. Summer can’t get over soon enough.

I'm in Waco right now and the car said it was 107 today. If one more person says "but it's a dry heat"...

It is dry heat, if you look at it from certain point of view. I once experienced smth like 27-28°C with fog, 100% humidity. Was almost as bad as 40°C with low humidity.

And if it would be 42°C/107°F with fog and 100% humidity, lots of people would be dead already. But it’s more like saying “at least this building is not on fire right now”. Or 1km wide meteor is not crashing down. It is not, and anything near 40°C is really unpleasant, regardless of burning homes and falling meteors.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#114

Post by mort96 »

tomjen3 wrote: post #96
bamboozled wrote: post #10

All we needed to do was stop burning fossil fuels we really are fucking dense.

Would have been doable if we could have switched to nuclear, but no.

It would've helped a ton but it's not like electricity generation is the only source of emissions. You can't run a car or a plane on nuclear power. You can technically run a cargo ship on nuclear power but that's also not gonna happen. Yet transport is the second largest source of emissions.

Batteries have only recently-ish gotten energy dense and cheap enough for electric cars to be competitive, completely different solutions are needed for long distance shipping by sea or air.

It's the same situation across many other sectors like agriculture, construction and waste management. Lots of things causing emissions that's not electricity generation.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#115

Post by vrganj »

roenxi wrote: post #112
hvb2 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is bigger than your relatives. I'm sure he was referring to already food insecure places. The rich countries will have food available, probably at elevated prices. In places where there's actual famine people will do crazy things to get their hands on food.

If the plan isn't to stockpile food communally through a big corporation making a tidy profit for being well prepared in a disaster, and it isn't to stockpile it personally... what is the plan? There won't be any food. There are very limited options here. Those two are, by far, the two best ones for reliably being able to access food. Someone has to build up a reserve. Literally, you should to be able to point someon…

"Communally" and "through a big corporation making a tidy profit" are at odds.

It's either for and by the community or it's for and by a big corporation profiteering off the misfortune of the community. It can't be both at the same time.

The big corporations aren't "going to keep people fed", they will hoard and ration by wealth, not by need. The billionaire will get their twenty course fine dining experience, the beggar will starve. That's not keeping the people fed by any serious definition of the term.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#116

Post by VorpalWay »

roenxi wrote: post #112
hvb2 wrote: post #107

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is bigger than your relatives. I'm sure he was referring to already food insecure places. The rich countries will have food available, probably at elevated prices. In places where there's actual famine people will do crazy things to get their hands on food.

If the plan isn't to stockpile food communally through a big corporation making a tidy profit for being well prepared in a disaster, and it isn't to stockpile it personally... what is the plan? There won't be any food. There are very limited options here. Those two are, by far, the two best ones for reliably being able to access food. Someone has to build up a reserve. Literally, you should to be able to point someon…

There is another option than individuals vs corporations though: The government could and should provide for it's citizens. That is what a welfare state is all about: useing the taxes it collects from its citizens for the common good.

I know, to the US centric crowd at HN that probably sounds insane, but as a Scandinavian this is what I would have expected in the past (though probably not these days).

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#117

Post by hackernud3s »

gilrain wrote: post #34
nx77 wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

You don’t get to be unattached to the lives of others ; only your own. What ugly thinking to cloth in Buddhism!

Attachment being the cause of suffering really is core to Buddhism. It's not for everybody though.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#118

Post by roenxi »

VorpalWay wrote: post #116
roenxi wrote: post #112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the plan isn't to stockpile food communally through a big corporation making a tidy profit for being well prepared in a disaster, and it isn't to stockpile it personally... what is the plan? There won't be any food. There are very limited options here. Those two are, by far, the two best ones for reliably being able to access food. Someone has to build up a reserve. Literally, you should to be able to point someon…

There is another option than individuals vs corporations though: The government could and should provide for it's citizens. That is what a welfare state is all about: useing the taxes it collects from its citizens for the common good. I know, to the US centric crowd at HN that probably sounds insane, but as a Scandinavian this is what I would have expected in the past (though probably not these days).

I mean sure but if we're just going to give people the money to buy food what is the complaint about big corporations charging more?

It isn't like anyone would be unable to afford food, because a welfare state would imply a standing agreement to buy everyone food at the taxpayer's expense if required. And it is entirely reasonable for prices to go up when there is a shortage, the people who built up stockpiles in advance need to be compensated for their foresight. Someone has to be stockpiling food.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#119

Post by youngtaff »

throwaway473825 wrote: post #57
anon7000 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, I think you made some good points, but at the same time, humans have become better at handling the climate because we’ve been able to predict it and have found solutions to certain known issues. What happens when it gets less predictable, like when certain regions get much less water for an extended period, is very much unknown. Your last claim makes no sense. Is there actually a widespread political effort to…

Regarding air conditioning in Europe, I suspect that there are other interests at play given that there has been zero pushback against air conditioning in cars. Air conditioning in buildings is likely viewed as a threat to gas providers as most modern cooling devices also have a heating mode that competes directly with gas heating.

Reality is much of Europe hasn’t needed air con until recently

mMy phone tells me that the temperature this week has been 15°C above the long term average for this time of year.

Don’t really need air con when the peak temperature in the past has been 20–25°C

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#120

Post by ben_w »

huijzer wrote: post #97
culi wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, we didn't have the World Food Programme in 1877 which lets us anticipate droughts distribution and crop failures months ahead of time. That being said, the existing energy crisis and fertilizer crisis can significantly compound the negative impacts of this El Niño even if we are able to anticipate it.

> lets us anticipate droughts distribution and crop failures months ahead of time. If by “us” you mean big corporations, which will then buy the stuff and sell it at a premium later, then I agree.

Many farmers are subsidised specifically so that food is over-produced in most years, specifically to ensure than in bad years people don't go hungry.

Corporations may indeed be taking advantage of this, demanding prices so low that the farmers don't get the benefit of those subsidies. However:

> buy the stuff and sell it at a premium later

Is the point of a futures market. Futures let people trade a thing before they even know how supply and demand will balance, guaranteeing a price for the producer and letting them plan purchases of machinery and maintenance, with the risks (in bad years) and profit margins (in good years) going up the supply chain.

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