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Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

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Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#101

Post by timr »

dluan wrote: post #99
chasd00 wrote: post #28

Looking forward to Fall rain in North Texas. Summer can’t get over soon enough.

I'm currently sitting in the middle of 100mph gusting winds as every island in Hawaii is under hurricane or tropical storm warning, with at least 100k people without power right now. Hurricane season in Hawaii is usually in Sept/Oct.

Hurricane season in Hawaii is June through November. August and September have always been peak months. It's completely normal to have hurricanes at this time of year.

https://www.weather.gov/hfo/faq

https://energy.ecoflow.com/us/blog/when-is-it-hurricane-seas...

https://manoa.hawaii.edu/dps/hurricane/

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#102

Post by roenxi »

huijzer wrote: post #97
culi wrote: post #77

Earlier quoted context omitted.

To be fair, we didn't have the World Food Programme in 1877 which lets us anticipate droughts distribution and crop failures months ahead of time. That being said, the existing energy crisis and fertilizer crisis can significantly compound the negative impacts of this El Niño even if we are able to anticipate it.

> lets us anticipate droughts distribution and crop failures months ahead of time. If by “us” you mean big corporations, which will then buy the stuff and sell it at a premium later, then I agree.

If you think that is going to happen, you can buy up some supplies and store them yourself. I have relatives with some impressive and substantial pantries because they're prepared to be snowed in for an extended period of time. Running out of food is possible the least novel problem humanity has ever encountered.

And what would you rather happen? If they don't store up a surplus then everyone will run out of food and prices will go up anyway. If there is less food because of a drought, prices are going up. If corporations start building up a stockpile then prices aren't going to go up as much as if there were no reserves.

TLDR; Yes. Good. It is a great day when there is food available at the local supermarket.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#103

Post by watwut »

throwaway473825 wrote: post #57
anon7000 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Look, I think you made some good points, but at the same time, humans have become better at handling the climate because we’ve been able to predict it and have found solutions to certain known issues. What happens when it gets less predictable, like when certain regions get much less water for an extended period, is very much unknown. Your last claim makes no sense. Is there actually a widespread political effort to…

Regarding air conditioning in Europe, I suspect that there are other interests at play given that there has been zero pushback against air conditioning in cars. Air conditioning in buildings is likely viewed as a threat to gas providers as most modern cooling devices also have a heating mode that competes directly with gas heating.

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Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#104

Post by watwut »

anonzzzies wrote: post #80
gottorf wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> People dying from extreme heatwaves, weather, and famines due to climate change has been predicted for decades at this point; and this is exactly the sort of climatic setup that will enable this to happen. The rhetoric is all well and good, but if you look at the numbers according to the WMO[0], deaths from climate-related hazards have been dropping steadily in the 50-year period from 1970 to 2019, even as atmosphe…

all airconditioning brands had massive uptick in sales in Europe; Spain and other southern countries over 100%. what anti air conditioning sentiment?

[flagged]

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#105

Post by pelasaco »

izend wrote: post #18

The strongest El Niño ever caused a massive famine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o...

A modern 1877 scale event would probably immediately fuel (pun intended) a furious climate change debate, even though attributing the existence of the El Niño itself to fossil fuels would not be scientifically justified... or maybe was the 1877 El Niño caused by fossil fuels (so many Wars happened in those years) ?

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#106

Post by burnt-resistor »

chasd00 wrote: post #28

Looking forward to Fall rain in North Texas. Summer can’t get over soon enough.

It's 96 ℉ / 36 °C @ 60% humidity every day for 5 months in hill country with no rain in sight. The El Niňo rain may not get here until November. We're right at the 100 meridian west so it's between hot semi-arid (BSH) and humid subtropical (Cfa), and most storms seem to bypass us to the north by about 20 miles. It was growing zone 8b but changed +3 ℉ to 9a in 10 years.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#107

Post by hvb2 »

roenxi wrote: post #102
huijzer wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> lets us anticipate droughts distribution and crop failures months ahead of time. If by “us” you mean big corporations, which will then buy the stuff and sell it at a premium later, then I agree.

If you think that is going to happen, you can buy up some supplies and store them yourself. I have relatives with some impressive and substantial pantries because they're prepared to be snowed in for an extended period of time. Running out of food is possible the least novel problem humanity has ever encountered. And what would you rather happen? If they don't store up a surplus then everyone will run out of food and…

The world is bigger than your relatives.

I'm sure he was referring to already food insecure places. The rich countries will have food available, probably at elevated prices.

In places where there's actual famine people will do crazy things to get their hands on food.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#108

Post by askvictor »

bpodgursky wrote: post #92
dluan wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China is the only country that is seriously doing anything about anything. They've single handedly built more renewable energy capacity than every other country combined, they've pulled millions of diesel and gasoline cars off roads, reforested one of the world's biggest deserts, this year they've finally reduced coal usage, and next year the long awaited Tokamak is set to fire for the first time. The US is busy send…

You can't really have this both ways. Closing Hormuz and blowing up Iranian export facilities has been massively decarbonizing. Chinese solar exports are massively up because countries have had to find new energy sources.

Oil is a small proportion of carbon emissions. Coal is where it's at, and Iran has very little to do with that.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#109

Post by defrost »

pelasaco wrote: post #105
izend wrote: post #18

The strongest El Niño ever caused a massive famine: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1877%E2%80%931878_El_Ni%C3%B1o...

A modern 1877 scale event would probably immediately fuel (pun intended) a furious climate change debate, even though attributing the existence of the El Niño itself to fossil fuels would not be scientifically justified... or maybe was the 1877 El Niño caused by fossil fuels (so many Wars happened in those years) ?

Nobody in planet modelling has ever suggested that the 3 phase El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exists because of fossil fuel usage.

An extreme swing, here and there, has always been part of its nature.

The observed change is more and more extreme swings, greater amplitude, higher frequency.

Re: Super El Niño Keeps Growing as New Forecasts Reach Record Territory Ahead Winter

#110

Post by burnt-resistor »

mh- wrote: post #32
chasd00 wrote: post #28

Looking forward to Fall rain in North Texas. Summer can’t get over soon enough.

I'm in Waco right now and the car said it was 107 today. If one more person says "but it's a dry heat"...

Car temperature sensors tend to be inaccurate because they're often in the Sun or some other place affected by baking a car not in a garage.

Check a thermometer in the shade. The weather data stations reported an average of 101 ℉ / 38 ℃ for Waco. It's hot, and especially feels worse with Southern subtropical humidity. OTOH, 101 in California with 0-15% humidity, it would just be a bit annoying. Higher humidity makes heat qualitatively exponentially worse until it's a sauna.

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