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Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

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Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#411

Post by greycol »

CraigJPerry wrote: post #403
jillesvangurp wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

>> They still import a lot I don't think it's common knowledge how much they dropped imports since the Iran / straight of hormuz crisis. Back at the start of that conflict there were a lot of breathless takes about what catastrophe was in store in a few weeks time, and what materialised was bad but not in anything like the same league as what was predicted. The thing that wasn't accounted for in the analysis at the t…

They had basically been planning for this shortfall for ever as a likely outcome of sanctions/blockades during an invasion of Taiwan.

Curtailing imports so much is a smart soft power move in not only does it ingratiate countries that would suffer most from the price spike but it could soften the resolve of Taiwan in showing that one of the largest penalties that would result from the invasion isn't nearly as punishing which in turn makes Taiwan's porcupine strategy less viable.

Along with US own goals like the thoroughly bungled and unplanned invasion, tariffs, corruption (both business crimes and more moral crimes like pedophilia or disregard for following legal process) it's made most of the west rate China above USA in favourability [latest Pew research poll].

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#412

Post by marcus_holmes »

jillesvangurp wrote: post #57
pizzathyme wrote: post #22

The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

ICE use will drop slowly, and then all at once. Because gas stations will go out of business and it'll get harder and harder to refuel them.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#414

Post by patmorgan23 »

codedokode wrote: post #113
jillesvangurp wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

What's good in electric cars? If a large power plant is destroyed how are you going to charge your electric car to escape?

How are you gonna use the electric gas pump in that scenario? The electric car guy just needs a few solar panels.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#415

Post by lopsotronic »

ang_cire wrote: post #396
lopsotronic wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I've always sort-of-joked[1] about a "Blood Standard": your status as reserve currency is proportional to the percentage of the world population your nation can murder in 12 months. Puts a hard floor on nations with strategic nuclear deterrents - they can never fall below a fairly high threshold, no matter how much of a "Security State Zombie" their national economies have become. [1] I'm not 100% sure it's all me jo…

I mean, Russia's currency is in the toilet, and if even just 10% of their nukes are actually functional they probably kill a significant percentage of the world pop.

Russia's desperately terrible internal financials, applied to any nation lacking strategic deterrence, would have brought them a lot more pain.

I sort of jokingly contend that they're floated by a theoretical "Blood Standard", in addition to the very distributed basket of commodities they built their country on top of.

The problem here is that I've got the mechanism reversed. Blood Standard measures negative power - the capacity to destroy. Reserve status tracks positive power - the ability to keep other states from destruction. So maybe what the Blood Standard really represents is super-sovereignty - you never get under the thumb of IMF, you never get invaded, you don't lose control of internal monetary policy a la Argentina.

Thinking about it, the Swiss break this model, but from the other direction. "We will never ever screw with you" and in return they get seen as safe.

Again it's a bit of a lark, but it's not as funny anymore, as the growth curve in positive economics hits some natural physical limits along with a very deep gravity well.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#416

Post by joshuaissac »

igorkraw wrote: post #260
usrnm wrote: post #123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There is a different between a conflict and a war. Humans are uniquely violent and cruel to each other, there is nothing even close in the animal world

You should learn about chimpanzee wars and how dolphins treat tortoises, and about the enslaving ants

> how dolphins treat tortoises

Do you mean porpoises?

Dolphins are not known for mistreating tortoises but porpoises.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#417

Post by pocksuppet »

athrowaway3z wrote: post #35

Would this also mean we can get a EuroDollar systems for the Yuan? As in, Deutsche Bank can create loans denominated in Yuan without Chinese central bank control?

Eurodollar is based on physical cash reserves outside of the USA, right? Otherwise they can indirectly control it.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#418

Post by HarHarVeryFunny »

mrtksn wrote: post #61

I have this pet theory that is fueled with ignorance but kind of make sense to me: The correct value of the USD would be adjusted to match the tech company valuations sans AI(Apple can be a good guide IMHO) when they serve 350M people instead of 8B people as AI makes software obsolete and the geopolitics and the US government behavior dismantles any network or lock in effects.

Currencies are basically commodities whose value is based on supply and demand.

Demand comes from other countries wanting to buy your currency (or things they need to pay for with your currency). For example, much global oil is priced in dollars, so if you want to buy oil you need to buy dollars. If you think the US dollar is a good place to park your foreign reserves, then you are buying dollars. Thinks the US stock or bond market, or real estate, etc, looks like an attractive investment, then you need to buy dollars.

If a country wants to boost the value of it's currency then they increase interest rates to make it more attractive to foreign investors, or reduce the supply by selling bonds (taking dollars out of the market).

So ... it's complicated. Supply and demand, but tons of factors that go into those.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#419

Post by jillesvangurp »

balderdash wrote: post #365
jillesvangurp wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

I think what's missing here is the second order effects. refiners will adjust their crack, use blending etc but that's just a rounding error. you're still going to have demand for the other ~60% of the barrel, so refiners are going to have ~40% of the barrel to find a market for, EV's are going to look a lot less appealing when gallon of gas is it'll be a roller coaster for sure, but i think there are going to a lot…

A lot of especially the US market needs high oil prices to justify production cost. Some refiners might actually reduce capacity rather than sell below cost levels or at lower margins.

The reality is probably going to be lots of price uncertainty (even more than today) and increasingly flaky supply chains as refiners and oil producers gradually reduce capacity to keep prices high enough to stay in business. As that happens, investments in refineries become more risky as well. Because if you can't rely on lucrative fuel sales anymore, that's a big problem for long term viability of a refinery.

Before cars started burning petrol at scale, refiners were occasionally dumping fuel in rivers. It was just a worthless by product. All the money was in things like kerosene.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#420

Post by tialaramex »

thesmtsolver2 wrote: post #342
danlugo92 wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Grow up man, we need people to grow up and see the world for what it really is before we can fix it You go against the government (for real) in ANY country you get a bullet, simple as that... That is everywhere... In USA, China, Russia, Paraguay, Laos, or wherever you go look...

False equivalence. Also funnily you left out Europe, why? For instance, you can mock Trump and question the US all day. You can’t do that in China. Even this website is banned in China.

> For instance, you can mock Trump and question the US all day.

It's less dangerous to do this in the US, but it's still much worse there than it was even a decade ago.

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