I have this pet theory that is fueled with ignorance but kind of make sense to me: The correct value of the USD would be adjusted to match the tech company valuations sans AI(Apple can be a good guide IMHO) when they serve 350M people instead of 8B people as AI makes software obsolete and the geopolitics and the US government behavior dismantles any network or lock in effects.
Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe
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Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe
#62Earlier quoted context omitted.
President Xi of China mentioned it when the US President visited him in May. https://www.hks.harvard.edu/faculty-research/policy-topics/i...
utterly repulsive ai slop
Yes, but I liked that the article mentioned how Xi has been saying this for a long time.
I switched the link to Harvard.
Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe
#63The end of the Petro Dollar? Soviet-China-Iran - Petro Yuan? /edit for the pedantic. Russian Federation.
Russia and Iran are irrelevant in the global economy.
Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe
#64I wonder if this might be a reaction to the "blindsided" ECB, following a US decision to prop up the Japanese yen. This would be an interesting fracture.
https://www.ft.com/content/d9922d0b-51a0-48be-811b-42e08f909...
Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe
#65The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.
I think this has the causality reversed. The dollar is the world's reserve currency because the US wields incredible negotiating power and has been the de facto military hegemony in the past few decades.
It seems likely that the dominance the US has enjoyed in the recent past will diminish somewhat as other blocks with larger population bases catch up on the technology and industrialization fronts, and eventually start flexing their industrial might to create peer-level militaries.
Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe
#66Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe
#67If there's one thing you can do now that will set you up for the next 20–30 years: it’s learning Mandarin.
With advanced AI real time translation I don't see any need for that.
Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe
#68Ah, yes, the best way to react to increased authoritarianism in the US is to checks notes begin doing more business with a country that is the final word in authoritarianism.
the big difference is that China is not bombing anyone, and causing chaos to it's allies..
Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe
#69The US wields incredible negotiating power and hegemony because the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. Like the British pound and the Dutch guilder before it, if that loses reserve currency status it will be harder to borrow on favorable terms, which would affect the entire US economy. This is a big step in that perhaps starting to happen over the next few decades.
The yuan will never become a reserve currency as long as China maintain tight currency controls around importing and exporting it. It's very difficult to (legally) send CNY out or China. The euro is in a much better position to be adopted as an alternative, but its share of global reserves has been flat at around 20% for years. https://data.imf.org/en/news/imf%20data%20brief%20march%2027
Exactly. It's always been posturing.
Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe
#70Earlier quoted context omitted.
Can you elaborate a little? I suspect it is a well known concept, but its the first time I heard of it in this context.
Essentially its the idea that the interaction between an incumbent power and rising "challenger" power inevitably leads to war between the two. I was expressing my hope that if this does happen, the war can play out in less destructive arenas - one of which is in the competition for reserve currency status which the US has held for the whole of the modern era. This article possibly points at China's first shots in th…
The obvious counterexample would be the previous most powerful empire in the world (ie the UK) ceding that title to the USA after collapsing after WW2? No war between the UK and the US was needed.