Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

tradersunion.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

141–150 of 496 posts

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#141

Post by noir_lord »

WJW wrote: post #70
JimmyBuckets wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Essentially its the idea that the interaction between an incumbent power and rising "challenger" power inevitably leads to war between the two. I was expressing my hope that if this does happen, the war can play out in less destructive arenas - one of which is in the competition for reserve currency status which the US has held for the whole of the modern era. This article possibly points at China's first shots in th…

The obvious counterexample would be the previous most powerful empire in the world (ie the UK) ceding that title to the USA after collapsing after WW2? No war between the UK and the US was needed.

> No war between the UK and the US was needed.

No war was "needed" to settle who was #1, it was clear that we (the UK) simply couldn't maintain the empire as it was and we definitely couldn't have fought the US.

We went into WW2 the clear naval power in the world, We exited it in the #2 spot utterly broke.

In less than 4 years the US produced enough ships to eclipse our navy and did it while also producing ridiculously vast amounts of equipment for themselves and their allies across every sphere.

No one with a brain in our foreign office would have even contemplated poking that (and realistically while the US has at times been a questionable ally on the whole in that era they were a reliable ally).

In that kind of total war the side with the larger industrial base wins the war of attrition.

It doesn't matter if the enemy sinks ships if your production rate exceeds the sink rate on a sustained basis you win (somewhat related it's also why naval strategists have been sounding the clarion call about the fact that China now makes more than half of all global shipping, the US is somewhere around 1% - those peacetime yards/skilled works transfer over in a war).

The US did that, they won the war (or their part of it) in the factory lines/mines as much as they did on the actual front.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#142

Post by cevn »

codedokode wrote: post #113
jillesvangurp wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

What's good in electric cars? If a large power plant is destroyed how are you going to charge your electric car to escape?

Are u serious? If ur oil refinery is destroyed how are you going to pump oil to your house?

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#143

Post by Markoff »

mrtksn wrote: post #61

I have this pet theory that is fueled with ignorance but kind of make sense to me: The correct value of the USD would be adjusted to match the tech company valuations sans AI(Apple can be a good guide IMHO) when they serve 350M people instead of 8B people as AI makes software obsolete and the geopolitics and the US government behavior dismantles any network or lock in effects.

related:

"It's hard to argue that the yuan isn't undervalued. As the International Monetary Fund noted in its country report published in February, China's external position "is assessed to be stronger than the level implied by medium-term fundamentals and desirable policies." The yuan has nonetheless fallen in real terms due to China's low inflation.

Indeed, the renminbi has depreciated in real terms four years in a row, registering a cumulative 14% decline since 2021, according to IMF economists. They estimate China's real effective exchange rate could potentially be up to 20% undervalued.

China watchers Brad Setser and Mark Sobel, both former U.S. Treasury officials, go further and say the yuan is probably undervalued by as much as 30%. Setser has long argued that China's official balance of payments data understates the country's real surplus and that customs data is the more accurate barometer. By that measure, the trade surplus would be a percentage point of GDP wider."

https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/chinas-yuan-is-underv...

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#144

Post by FrustratedMonky »

thehumanmeat wrote: post #76
kibwen wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There won't be a petro-anything. In 30 years the oil industry will no longer be the resource upon which the whole world turns, and will instead be just another industrial input.

There was never a petro-anything. It's always been and is the Eurodollar global reserve currency. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurodollar

[flagged]

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#146

Post by mrtksn »

blurbleblurble wrote: post #71
mrtksn wrote: post #61

I have this pet theory that is fueled with ignorance but kind of make sense to me: The correct value of the USD would be adjusted to match the tech company valuations sans AI(Apple can be a good guide IMHO) when they serve 350M people instead of 8B people as AI makes software obsolete and the geopolitics and the US government behavior dismantles any network or lock in effects.

I'm interested to understand your theory better but right now the way you've expressed it is hard to make sense of for me.

As I said, it is fueled with ignorance and I’m sure that it is complete bullshit when examined closely but the reason I kind of find it possible is that currently the American companies have a reach that is order of magnitude bigger than the American population and their valuations as well as their profits are based on that. What America is currently doing is dismantling of the world order that made this possible, therefore the American companies will have drastically reduced reach, i.e. Apple for example, won’t be able to sell hundreds of millions of iPhones per quarter because there are not that many Americans to buy that. Instead of the Market crashing in nominal values, maybe the value of the dollar we will crash. So Apple will still be $4T but an new iPhone will be $10K.

Yes, I’m just throwing some bs numbers around but IMHO things will have to make sense eventually when US can’t just print infinite dollars without crashing its value and Apple can’t just sell iPhones to the entire planet due to wars and trade barriers that are becoming the new normal.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#147

Post by mschuster91 »

codedokode wrote: post #113
jillesvangurp wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

What's good in electric cars? If a large power plant is destroyed how are you going to charge your electric car to escape?

> If a large power plant is destroyed how are you going to charge your electric car to escape?

Solar panels and home battery storage. This is also going to seriously screw over electrical grid and especially powerplant operators... residential will, at least in suburban and rural areas, not need a grid any more except during prolonged phases of low solar yield.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#148

Post by [deleted] »

codedokode wrote: post #113
jillesvangurp wrote: post #57

Earlier quoted context omitted.

One consequence of the transition to renewable energy and electrified transport, is that oil imports will start to decline. And the dollar is of course the currency of choice for that. The US economy and other countries that export fossil fuels will feel the impact over the next decade or so. The energy transition might go a lot quicker than people seem to expect. Currently about 20% of global car sales is electric.…

What's good in electric cars? If a large power plant is destroyed how are you going to charge your electric car to escape?

[deleted]

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#149

Post by pocksuppet »

noir_lord wrote: post #135
Zigurd wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As other people on this thread will point out the Yuan is not close to replacing the dollar, nor is any other aspect of the Chinese financial system highly competitive, even with the staggering rise of corruption in the US. But this is yet another indicator of the loss of soft power, which is much farther gone than, I'd say, 90% of Americans realize. The supposedly smart people in the tech industry should be alarmed…

It's a variation of the maxim "Don't make the customer think", what you want them to do should be the default action and you want them to do without thinking. For some people in Europe now, they think about whether the thing they are buying/subscribing to is in the US or owned by a US company in a way that simply didn't happen in the recent past.

And all foreign transactions were done with a USD intermediary until the USA started making countries and banks question whether that was a good idea.

Re: Deutsche Bank becomes first foreign yuan clearing bank in Europe

#150

Post by mschuster91 »

thelastgallon wrote: post #128
codedokode wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What's good in electric cars? If a large power plant is destroyed how are you going to charge your electric car to escape?

[flagged]

> And your gasoline pump works perfectly fine without power?

Most decent emergency / contingency plans will have the fire department, police or whatever local group show up at one or two designated gas stations to provide power, or require these stations to have on-site emergency power.

Post reply on HN