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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#421

Post by bunderbunder »

linsomniac wrote: post #417
Arodex wrote: post #404

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You are basically describing predatory pricing or dumping, where the goal is not to be the best but to starve your competitors to build a monopoly and gouge customers later. Uber tried that and failed. Now they cost as much as normal taxis if not more. Airbnb tried that and now cost as much as hotels if not more. And tesla is a trillion dollar company on paper only. It can vanish into thin air in a day.

>You are basically describing predatory pricing I'm describing business . Period. It's incredibly rare to encounter products above a fairly small revenue level (niche products), that haven't come from a company that spent significant time reinvesting profits and therefore being unprofitable. Same for using outside investment. Yes, there are companies who have burned outside investment on things that didn't pan out. L…

Thing is, we don’t have strong reason to believe the AI companies are just reinvesting profits. There’s a lot of credible analysis saying inference COGS also exceeds the prices they charge. In which case they’re just burning the candle at both ends.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#422

Post by docjay »

ShinyLeftPad wrote: post #351
docjay wrote: post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you for taking the time and effort to provide a clear explanation. I’m familiar with supply and demand though. My emphasis was on “must” as a lazy protest against greed being considered a mandatory part of capitalism. Prices don’t have to go up, someone just wants more money. If you happily sell apples for $1 and see a hungry person walking towards you, must you raise the price? I think that basic thought gets…

> If you happily sell apples for $1 and see a hungry person walking towards you, must you raise the price? if you happily sell apples for $1 and now there are VC-funded companies who need a ton of apples to produce some dubious crap and can pay you $5 per. And you are the only company selling apples. what you should do is keep selling $1 apples to retail customers and charge corporations as much as they accept. you i…

But what do you suppose the corporations do with the apples you’re selling to them? Adding a degree of separation doesn’t change what you’re doing, and you’re not morphing into Robin Hood.

To be clear, I’m not taking a fully altruistic position. I’m just tired of price hikes on things, from apples to memory, being blamed on the weather rather than openly understanding that it’s a person wanting more money. “I can’t afford gas because of the shortage” - No, it was the CEO saying a number in a meeting and that person has a name. When someone is robbed we don’t say “an economic disparity caused a wealth adjustment.”

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#423

Post by baby_souffle »

vannevar wrote: post #175
bob1029 wrote: post #141

One unit of HBM capacity consumes roughly the wafer capacity that could have produced three units of DDR5 capacity. HBM dies need to be larger than ordinary DRAM dies because of how the final packaging works. > As discussed previously, the ramp of HBM production will constrain industry supply growth in non-HBM products. Industrywide, HBM3E consumes approximately three times the wafer supply as D5 to produce a given n…

>As the memory industry is still recovering from the challenging environment in 2023, this tight supply environment will help drive the considerable improvements in profitability and ROI (return on investment) that are needed to enable the investments required to support future growth. The problem is that they need actual chips tomorrow. I fear we are reaching the point in the semiconductor industry where, in order t…

> they're going to have to start selling future chips that cannot possibly be physically produced.

This is already happening with gpus, no? Tsmc and McDaniel capacity are sold out into the future. Data center that might not be needed in 1 to 3 years is where they’re headed.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#424

Post by codingrightnow »

pmontra wrote: post #337
vannevar wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>As the memory industry is still recovering from the challenging environment in 2023, this tight supply environment will help drive the considerable improvements in profitability and ROI (return on investment) that are needed to enable the investments required to support future growth. The problem is that they need actual chips tomorrow. I fear we are reaching the point in the semiconductor industry where, in order t…

But maybe no customer will be there to actually buy, because cash flows could crash their businesses. So options on chips? Call or put?

Call, then put.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#425

Post by Y_Y »

pmontra wrote: post #337
vannevar wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>As the memory industry is still recovering from the challenging environment in 2023, this tight supply environment will help drive the considerable improvements in profitability and ROI (return on investment) that are needed to enable the investments required to support future growth. The problem is that they need actual chips tomorrow. I fear we are reaching the point in the semiconductor industry where, in order t…

But maybe no customer will be there to actually buy, because cash flows could crash their businesses. So options on chips? Call or put?

Silicon wafers and fab time are the new pork bellies and onion futures.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#426

Post by socketnaut »

noduerme wrote: post #328

So LLM profiteers have bought up all the consumer RAM for the next several years in order to deliver more of a service we're already oversaturated with that doesn't turn a profit..? I guess by then there'll be no consumers left with jobs to afford a PlayStation 6, so no problem. Except how will the AI trainers find revenue? If maximum potential is reached by laying off 90% of workers at companies that sell stuff... h…

Someone less cynical might recognize prioritization of technological advancement over video games as a good thing.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#428

Post by vannevar »

daishi55 wrote: post #412
vannevar wrote: post #300

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"Demand destruction" doesn't literally mean all demand is destroyed; it refers to the demand curve you reference. But as a sibling commenter notes, real business is rarely as clean as an econ textbook. In the real world, a supplier can contract to supply more units than they can actually produce. Their customers rely on the representation to make other related deals. And of course, the supplier can book the contracte…

> In the real world, a supplier can contract to supply more units than they can actually produce. Did this actually happen though? Is there any evidence or you are just imagining a scenario which if it did happen could lead to the scenario you outlined?

Yes, it happens all the time. Sometimes it's actual fraud, sometimes it happens due to unforeseen supply chain issues. Sometimes it's a gray area in between, where production is possible but the supplier hides relevant risks in order to secure the deal.

Several examples can be found in lists of supply chain disasters, eg the 1995 Apple production shortfall:

https://supplychaindigital.com/supply-chain-risk-management/...

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#429

Post by Saris »

throwatdem12311 wrote: post #230
stephenitis wrote: post #221

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What part of your PC died?

Motherboard. New motherboard…so new cpu socket (mine was Broadwell)…and new ram needed. GPU is mostly fine and can probably reuse that but it’s Vega so not the greatest I was due for an upgrade but the prices of everything is ridiculous. The thought of pc-of-Theseus’ing my busted ass PC is just sad. Thank god I bought a PS5 Pro before Sony started jacking up the prices. I remember when buying a $300 GPU was extravaga…

I'd spend the $100 on a replacement motherboard if it was me, better than not being able to use the PC.

Could be less than $100 if buying used too maybe!

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#430

Post by blacklion »

socketnaut wrote: post #426
noduerme wrote: post #328

So LLM profiteers have bought up all the consumer RAM for the next several years in order to deliver more of a service we're already oversaturated with that doesn't turn a profit..? I guess by then there'll be no consumers left with jobs to afford a PlayStation 6, so no problem. Except how will the AI trainers find revenue? If maximum potential is reached by laying off 90% of workers at companies that sell stuff... h…

Someone less cynical might recognize prioritization of technological advancement over video games as a good thing.

But it is not for prosumer. I don't want my PC to be terminal to 4-5 providers of compute who could ban me or raise prices tenfold overnight.

I don't see any advances for me, only for my employer, maybe, but it is not sure thing too.

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