All of you that are excited for the m5 mac studios are going to be so bummed.
2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
161–170 of 493 posts
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#162Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unfortunately, I can't not use AI because it provides the best speech recognition I've ever used and, going along with hand problems, it now allows me to write code after a three-year absence from that skill. I do miss it. I'd never do it again professionally in the large, but I have missed writing code a lot. My solution is to see what four or five-year-old equipment I can buy that will let me run local LLMs. I may…
> Migrating to small-scale local LLMs would be a significant improvement over using data centers. This shift is probably inevitable, but it will vary significantly by region depending on prices for electricity. Look at, for example, the difference in fundamental homelab build recommendations between Germans and just about anyone else. Electricity prices in Germany are so high that even a now expensive Raspberry Pi or…
Smaller solar setups might become a hedge against high power bills in the future it seems.
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#163This will have general inflationary consequences for consumer products (phones, consoles, laptops, etc.). On top of current uncertainties regarding oil and fertilizers, I think 2% inflation in the US and Europe would be a very optimistic target.
Why are “demand and supply driven price increases” considered inflationary? Isn’t it just… prices?
Any price increase can be considered inflationary. They usually don’t come down by all that much
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#164Hmm. Forget about desktops. I'm programming a microcontroller which is actually reasonably priced and has gotten all its 32Mb of RAM in the same die as the processor, but I'm getting nervous and having a strong urge to stockpile...
Well, that one is likely out of danger - so far PSRAM (I assume that's what you have) is not impacted that much. However, we had to cancel some projects because we couldn't secure enough chips which have DDR on die at a reasonable price. They are 4x now compared to December last year.
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#165Seems like we need a USB equivalent standard to RAM sticks. I have lots and lots of old (1-2GB), intercompatible sticks sitting. Sometimes you just need the space and not the speed.
Grab the cheapest Intel Optane M10 drive from eBay with a 1x PCI-E adapter from them too. 16GB of Swap for less than $20.
The M10 are over produced and only PCI-E 3.0 2x lane devices but 16GB of DDR5 is going to cost over $200.
You can do the same with USB-C M.2 adapters but the adapters cost more and eww USB for Swap, hope the device never drops.
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#166Seems like we need a USB equivalent standard to RAM sticks. I have lots and lots of old (1-2GB), intercompatible sticks sitting. Sometimes you just need the space and not the speed.
RAM over “USB” seems dangerously close to an SSD.
In any case DDR3 isn’t nearly as bad price-wise and would have much better energy efficiency than stacking 1–2 gig sticks.
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#167Earlier quoted context omitted.
Unfortunately, I can't not use AI because it provides the best speech recognition I've ever used and, going along with hand problems, it now allows me to write code after a three-year absence from that skill. I do miss it. I'd never do it again professionally in the large, but I have missed writing code a lot. My solution is to see what four or five-year-old equipment I can buy that will let me run local LLMs. I may…
> Migrating to small-scale local LLMs would be a significant improvement over using data centers. This shift is probably inevitable, but it will vary significantly by region depending on prices for electricity. Look at, for example, the difference in fundamental homelab build recommendations between Germans and just about anyone else. Electricity prices in Germany are so high that even a now expensive Raspberry Pi or…
No-Load losses on the power conversion seems to be the real issue and is rarely mentioned and understood even less often. Plus the conversion eff. curve.
Eg: I shaved ~40W off the idle load on a server (250->210W) by doung nothing more than removing the redundant supply
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#168Earlier quoted context omitted.
https://dam.stanford.edu/memory-prices.html Pretty sure those devs were saying the same thing way before 2017 as well, which seems to be ~ the last time RAM was this expensive. Now RAM in the cloud , now you're really paying the Java premium.
According to your link, DDR5 today has the same price in real US $ as DDR3 was in 2014, during a brief spike towards high prices. Since that peak in 2014 until today, the prices were lower than now. The peak in 2017 was more than 10% lower than today. To reach permanently higher prices than today, we must go backwards until 2011. So we have already regressed at least 12 years into the past, but more likely 15 years,…
> we have already regressed at least...
It seems worth noting here that DDR5 RAM is faster than DDR3 RAM, and was not even available until 2020.
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#169This will have general inflationary consequences for consumer products (phones, consoles, laptops, etc.). On top of current uncertainties regarding oil and fertilizers, I think 2% inflation in the US and Europe would be a very optimistic target.
Yes, but the impact will be small. The average consumer isn't purchasing a lot of products with a lot of RAM every year. Their 8GB of RAM phones will go up in price a little bit, but people aren't buying phones every year or even every other year. So if the price of the 8GB of LPDDR went from $40 to $160 and it's all passed on to the consumer buying a new phone every 4 years, that's an extra $30/year in spending. Mos…
You forgot to tack on the rise in prices of SSDs too, so that's $50 per year at least.
>Most adults I know now use their phone for everything
You mean the cloud for everything. A lot of phone tasks share their computational and storage workloads off in the invisible ether that has actual computers with real costs behind them. Amazon has no problem with bumping up their costs in order to pay for their fleet of servers. I mean, what business doesn't use the cloud these days.
Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out
#170This will have general inflationary consequences for consumer products (phones, consoles, laptops, etc.). On top of current uncertainties regarding oil and fertilizers, I think 2% inflation in the US and Europe would be a very optimistic target.
Why are “demand and supply driven price increases” considered inflationary? Isn’t it just… prices?
Prices rising is inflation.