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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#131
post #7

All those devs who were saying "ram is cheap" BTFO.

OK I’ll take the bait. Were devs supposed to optimize RAM for a shortage that might come? I’m guessing you had enough foresight to stockpile RAM?

Time to bring back 32 bit OS, that way you only need 4GB RAM per computer!

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#132
post #22

I saw on Twitter that TSMC has made 1B worth of chips for Apple that they cannot package because of missing memory. (PS: It is time to let ASML sell to CXMT.)

Don't really need the EUVs for commodity DRAMs and China has plenty of DUVs capable of 10nm. CXMT's DDR5 is known to use 1z nodes (17nm) vs 1c (10nm) used by the big three -- ie, higher cost, less efficiency, less density.

The big three are also expanding their capacity. IMO, it seems to make more sense to sell equipments to those who could make better, efficient use of them. ASML has a backlog of €38.8 billion and is fully booked for 2027.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter. The perception is all datacenters do AI (not necessarily wrong nowadays either) and that's all that matters to the public when they see so many lost jobs and high computer / phone prices.

And how does the public know there is a datacenter inside a random building?

Browse Google Maps aerial view and look for the backup generators.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#134
post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Indeed. There's a reason the US government has historically stopped air traffic / railroad / longshore strikes: cascading effects. If memory is now upstream of so many companies, then maybe a higher regulatory involvement would be appropriate (like power companies). Specifically, and it could fix all of this, capping the max % of their supply they're allowed to sell into the AI space.

I hear what you're saying but memory ultimately is not infrastructure, it's a commodity that's shipped over infrastructure. The arguments for infrastructure being managed more tightly by the government is because it's a natural monopoly that everything depends on. Memory isn't a natural monopoly, if we found ourselves in a spot where we all depend on 3 companies then that's not a law of nature, we need more companies…

The government interferes with many commodities. Food, oil, rare-earth elements, sugar, airplane frames, etc

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#135
Hmm. Forget about desktops. I'm programming a microcontroller which is actually reasonably priced and has gotten all its 32Mb of RAM in the same die as the processor, but I'm getting nervous and having a strong urge to stockpile...

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#136

Amazon has implemented a password system for RAM delivery. You're supposed to give a password to the deliverer before taking delivery of the RAM, and you're not supposed to send the password over the phone at all (although the Amazon delivery guy still called me and asked for it over the phone).

This is a shame, because now I cannot order from Amazon as orders go to building reception and nobody is going to remember the pin to take delivery.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#137

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It doesn't matter. The perception is all datacenters do AI (not necessarily wrong nowadays either) and that's all that matters to the public when they see so many lost jobs and high computer / phone prices.

And how does the public know there is a datacenter inside a random building?

"That's not a datacenter. It's just a regular old building consuming 20+MW of electricity"

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#138
post #22

I saw on Twitter that TSMC has made 1B worth of chips for Apple that they cannot package because of missing memory. (PS: It is time to let ASML sell to CXMT.)

I thought CXMT already have plenty of capacity - Apple are currently talking to the US government for blessing to buy from them. Other manufactures like Micron do have aggressive expansion plans, but fabs take a long time to build and bring online - multiple years.

CXMT is sold out too.

https://www.guru3d.com/story/cxmt-dram-capacity-reportedly-s...

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#139
post #8

Isn't scalping illegal in some countries?

Buying and selling at market price is rarely illegal. I think in the USSR it might be?

In the US, selling at the (new higher) market price during a declared state-of-emergency is illegal in most states and territories.
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