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2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

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Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#141

Post by bob1029 »

One unit of HBM capacity consumes roughly the wafer capacity that could have produced three units of DDR5 capacity. HBM dies need to be larger than ordinary DRAM dies because of how the final packaging works.

> As discussed previously, the ramp of HBM production will constrain industry supply growth in non-HBM products. Industrywide, HBM3E consumes approximately three times the wafer supply as D5 to produce a given number of bits in the same technology node. With increased performance and packaging complexity, across the industry, we expect this trade ratio for HBM4 to be even higher than the trade ratio for HBM3E. We anticipate strong HBM demand due to AI, combined with increasing silicon intensity of the HBM roadmap, to contribute to tight supply conditions for DRAM across all end markets. As the memory industry is still recovering from the challenging environment in 2023, this tight supply environment will help drive the considerable improvements in profitability and ROI (return on investment) that are needed to enable the investments required to support future growth.

https://investors.micron.com/static-files/4550f98c-1054-4847...

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#142

Post by adzm »

tosti wrote: post #98
GoblinSlayer wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

My benchmark: 1) .net app, one text field, one button; private bytes 22mb, working set 27mb 2) native app, two text fields, three buttons; private bytes 1.2mb, working set 7.3mb

3) electron, about:blank, 1.2GiB

electron, about:blank, 90mb

Just tested

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#143

Post by UncleOxidant »

tonyedgecombe wrote: post #66
pu_pe wrote: post #37

This will have general inflationary consequences for consumer products (phones, consoles, laptops, etc.). On top of current uncertainties regarding oil and fertilizers, I think 2% inflation in the US and Europe would be a very optimistic target.

2% was already optimistic once we decided we were buying too much from China.

And once we also decided that we needed to attack Iran.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#144

Post by BeetleB »

rickydroll wrote: post #99
apple4ever wrote: post #92

This is why I'm so hesitant to use AI. There are other reasons (for example: the journey is the fun part, not the destination; and I want to learn not have something done for me), but the pressure AI puts on memory and storage is too much for me. I do use it occasionally, mostly to keep tabs on it and for small problem solving (how do I do this one piece of a query in MySQL, since I'm not a MySQL DBA), but that's it…

Unfortunately, I can't not use AI because it provides the best speech recognition I've ever used and, going along with hand problems, it now allows me to write code after a three-year absence from that skill. I do miss it. I'd never do it again professionally in the large, but I have missed writing code a lot. My solution is to see what four or five-year-old equipment I can buy that will let me run local LLMs. I may…

> Unfortunately, I can't not use AI because it provides the best speech recognition I've ever used and, going along with hand problems, it now allows me to write code after a three-year absence from that skill.

I'll second this. The combination of Whisper + LLM makes speech recognition fantastic. I occasionally have arm pain from typing, and this is a Godsend.

I don't use it to write code - but in my experience stuff like emails + docs was the greater source of pain (one generally types slower while coding).

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#145

Post by MattDamonSpace »

pu_pe wrote: post #37

This will have general inflationary consequences for consumer products (phones, consoles, laptops, etc.). On top of current uncertainties regarding oil and fertilizers, I think 2% inflation in the US and Europe would be a very optimistic target.

Why are “demand and supply driven price increases” considered inflationary?

Isn’t it just… prices?

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#146

Post by techteach00 »

ZoomZoomZoom wrote: post #57
amelius wrote: post #17

How am I going to buy a computer that connects to AI datacenters now?

Don't worry. Sooner or later this stuff will be mandatory and you'll be obligated to get your state-issued terminal. Social credits will do, if you have no money. For the skeptical ones: Somewhere people are already being cut off from state and financial institutions without proprietary software with bundled security certificates, applications are bound to collect data on the environment they are used in (other apps)…

Yes and if it's true it's usually downvoted or flagged on HN

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#148

Post by applfanboysbgon »

MattDamonSpace wrote: post #145
pu_pe wrote: post #37

This will have general inflationary consequences for consumer products (phones, consoles, laptops, etc.). On top of current uncertainties regarding oil and fertilizers, I think 2% inflation in the US and Europe would be a very optimistic target.

Why are “demand and supply driven price increases” considered inflationary? Isn’t it just… prices?

It's inflationary because this demand is backed by Monopoly money. OpenAI is promising to buy half the global supply of RAM with money they don't actually have, pricing out people who would like to make purchases with real money and not $1 trillion in debt.

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#149

Post by nancyminusone »

swed420 wrote: post #81
beloch wrote: post #60

AI companies would do well to realize that civil disobedience is a thing. Take what's currently happening to Flock cameras as an object lesson. People are so fed up with Flock that they're cutting their cameras down en masse, sometimes wiping them clean from entire jurisdictions. Tens of thousands of other people in those jurisdictions are cheering them on, even offering alibis for them before they've been caught. La…

> Take what's currently happening to Flock cameras as an object lesson. People are so fed up with Flock that they're cutting their cameras down en masse, sometimes wiping them clean from entire jurisdictions. It seems inevitable that these lost cameras will simply be upgraded to drone fleets. Not an identical replacement, but still "good enough" for the original purposes. Had they anticipated this problem and skipped…

>upgraded to drone fleets

I wouldn't do that unless you want your airspace filled with birdshot

Re: 2027 memory capacity is reportedly sold out

#150

Post by nancyminusone »

amelius wrote: post #68
beloch wrote: post #60

AI companies would do well to realize that civil disobedience is a thing. Take what's currently happening to Flock cameras as an object lesson. People are so fed up with Flock that they're cutting their cameras down en masse, sometimes wiping them clean from entire jurisdictions. Tens of thousands of other people in those jurisdictions are cheering them on, even offering alibis for them before they've been caught. La…

Except nobody knows where the AI data centers are actually located.

here's one

https://www.datacentermap.com/usa/michigan/ann-arbor/related...

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