As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news reports every time these numbers get released
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U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
291–300 of 377 posts
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#292"sudden"
My thought exactly. I began rapidly recalling the hundreds of sources foreseeing this well in advance, citing it, raising alarm, and being ignored. I guess we are supposed to take numbers at face value, disregard what generated them and why, accept what they imply as presented, and never question it. Then we must patiently withhold intelligence, wait for sanctioned admission, then finally consider what we already kne…
Just look at a graph from the last few years. It bounces up and down a lot, but there's a pretty clear downward trend line, and it's been around zero for over a year, with many individual months slightly above or slightly below. https://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers...
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#293Earlier quoted context omitted.
You can move to Singapore, if you want a better healthcare sector. (The UK spends very roughly half of what the US spends on healthcare in terms of percentage of GDP. That's total (public plus private) expenditure. Singapore spends very roughtly half of what the UK spends by the same measure. Health outcomes amongst the three countries are comparable. If anything, Singapore is healthier.)
Health outcomes in the US are affected by higher levels of obesity. If anything, the higher health spending keeps that from being worse. I expect Ozempic and the like to have a significant impact on this.
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Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#294firstly :: "economy" cannot lose jobs because it doesn't have any. Secondly :: there is absolutely no way for you to know it.
Which is it, is it unknowable, or is it certain that it can't be?
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#295Earlier quoted context omitted.
Maybe, maybe not. And when a vast majority of the population isn't working what do these numbers really tell us? If we have fewer jobs, but then the people doing those jobs are paid more and thus paying more in taxes, maybe the jobs numbers don't even matter (I'm not sure that's true, just for arguments sake). And let's say they were covered up. Ok and what does that change? Are people who already hate Donald Trump g…
Pretty sure the Democrats would not have done either the ridiculous tariffs or the stupid Iran war. They wouldn't have passed anything like the BBB. Nor would they have tried to scare all the immigrants out of the country.
> Pretty sure the Democrats would not have done either the ridiculous tariffs
They may not have gone with that specific approach, but the direction was the same. Instead of tariffs the Biden Administration's BBB bill gave money to corporations instead. Two directionally aligned approaches there.
The rest of the comments (immigration policy or Iran) are irrelevant to this specific topic IMO
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#296As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news reports every time these numbers get released
https://www.bls.gov/jlt/jltreliability.htm Read the docs
Oh I’m well aware the BLS knows what they’re doing and publish error bars, they are great. The problem is news articles, no one ever reads BLS reports but they do watch Fox News, CNBC, etc. and those outlets never ever get into uncertainty.
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#297I have recently started an experiment tracking a sample of 5000 employers in US and I see a bounce last week after a brief lull in july. I am not sure if there is a strong downward trend. https://corvi.careers/reports/usa-weekly-job-openings-report...
Google will put one job posting per PA per level regardless of one team hiring or twenty.
I have to assume they aren't the only employer to do this, so I think job openings are meaningless here.
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#298Earlier quoted context omitted.
So perhaps we'll never get to a better healthcare+insurance market (nee "Free") through government, but eventually we will just all work in healthcare, and barter our nursing and dental skills in secret away from the insurance coders.
You can move to Singapore, if you want a better healthcare sector. (The UK spends very roughly half of what the US spends on healthcare in terms of percentage of GDP. That's total (public plus private) expenditure. Singapore spends very roughtly half of what the UK spends by the same measure. Health outcomes amongst the three countries are comparable. If anything, Singapore is healthier.)
> Health outcomes amongst the three countries are comparable. If anything, Singapore is healthier.
healthcare is not for health. Its for sickness. Going to hospital doesnt make you "healthy" . We dont have any medicines to restore health to ppl suffering for diseases majority of healthcare spend goes to.
Maybe those countries dont have sickly population in the first palce like usa where a majority have metabolic diseases.
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#299As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news reports every time these numbers get released
The bureau of labor statistics publishes confidence intervals in their reports
Yes! I am aware of this and they are really great. Problem is nobody will ever read that, but they WILL watch Fox News, CNBC, etc. and those outlets never even point out that there are errorbars/uncertainty. Then I hear things like outrage when BLS revises numbers up or down (facepalm).
Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal
#300I would hardly call it a sudden reversal, looking at the downward trend in the numbers over the last six months or so. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/non-farm-payrolls
What happened between February and March?