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U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

nbcnews.com

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Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#131

Post by jandrewrogers »

TSiege wrote: post #91
eigenspace wrote: post #85

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's not just boomers (though they are the biggest part of it). Americans of all ages are spending more on healthcare, and seeking more healthcare interventions than in previous decades.

This isn’t surprising. The population overall is aging. Millenials are now the largest cohort and are approaching middle age. Until recently we’ve seen the number of insured individuals rise consistently and our medicine continues to advance. More older adults have access and need more healthcare

It isn't just aging.

Americans are spending a lot more on quality-of-life medical interventions, many of which are outside the normal standard of care that would be covered by healthcare systems. It is a booming business in the US and many people seem to have no trouble paying for it.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#132

Post by WarmWash »

glaslong wrote: post #66
eigenspace wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Healthcare has consistently been one of the biggest drivers of US GDP and job growth numbers for years now. This is one of the major things that has helped explain why US consumer sentiment has been so out of step with headline numbers like employment, consumer spending, and GDP. It also helps explain why there's so many economists are saying they see limited evidence of a "K-shaped economy", and say they see positiv…

So perhaps we'll never get to a better healthcare+insurance market (nee "Free") through government, but eventually we will just all work in healthcare, and barter our nursing and dental skills in secret away from the insurance coders.

There will never be a better healthcare because the true cost of fixing a body more often than not far exceeds the value that body produces.

People run to dismiss this with "well we need a different system then", but the problem is a fundamental one on par with "eating your cake and having it too".

The only way to get as close as possible to "good" healthcare is to have enough money to pay for everything out of pocket.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#133

Post by twosdai »

vlovich123 wrote: post #127
jstanley wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The numbers are as good as they can get That doesn't mean they don't warrant error bars. Error bars aren't there to show that you didn't do a good job collecting the data, they're there to show your level of uncertainty.

I would say the initial numbers should be embargoed until the number is reliable. People don’t understand error bars and reporting can more easily manipulate the current situation without outright lying.

Both? I don't think error bars and waiting to release data until more accurate are mutually exclusive.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#134

Post by cousinbryce »

astro1234 wrote: post #105

As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news reports every time these numbers get released

https://www.bls.gov/jlt/jltreliability.htm Read the docs

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#135

Post by theptip »

vlovich123 wrote: post #127
jstanley wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The numbers are as good as they can get That doesn't mean they don't warrant error bars. Error bars aren't there to show that you didn't do a good job collecting the data, they're there to show your level of uncertainty.

I would say the initial numbers should be embargoed until the number is reliable. People don’t understand error bars and reporting can more easily manipulate the current situation without outright lying.

No, just report them with error bars. We know the 95th percentile revision size of the distribution.

Moot point as the people who actually act on the data understand how to roll their own anyway.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#136

Post by carlosjobim »

forlorn_mammoth wrote: post #17

What is also interesting is that the only sector thad added jobs was health care.

Not strange. All the money and wealth is in the hands of the olds and olds need much more health care than the young. So it's a gold rush to get their juicy dollars.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#138

Post by zer00eyz »

georgeburdell wrote: post #125
eru wrote: post #93

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You can move to Singapore, if you want a better healthcare sector. (The UK spends very roughly half of what the US spends on healthcare in terms of percentage of GDP. That's total (public plus private) expenditure. Singapore spends very roughtly half of what the UK spends by the same measure. Health outcomes amongst the three countries are comparable. If anything, Singapore is healthier.)

Singapore is the beneficiary of a neighboring impoverished itinerant workforce to supplement its own collapsing demographics with artificially cheap services. It’s hardly replicable most places.

So is the USA...

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#139

Post by vlovich123 »

twosdai wrote: post #133
vlovich123 wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would say the initial numbers should be embargoed until the number is reliable. People don’t understand error bars and reporting can more easily manipulate the current situation without outright lying.

Both? I don't think error bars and waiting to release data until more accurate are mutually exclusive.

That’s what I meant. There should be error bars to reflect uncertainty of the inherent data, but they should wait until all the data that could change things comes in rather than using projections which always drastically change

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#140

Post by natsucks »

europoorean wrote: post #119
astro1234 wrote: post #105

As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news reports every time these numbers get released

As a physicist, I always shed a tear when looking at data without error bars. As a data scientist/generic programmer now, I don't really see them anywhere. I remember a colleague during my postdoc saying 'don't worry, no error bars in industry' when I asked about regression with ML lol

hah. it's true. no interest in uncertainty except when forced.
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