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U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

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Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#261

Post by tumdum_ »

malfist wrote: post #151
WarmWash wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There will never be a better healthcare because the true cost of fixing a body more often than not far exceeds the value that body produces. People run to dismiss this with "well we need a different system then", but the problem is a fundamental one on par with "eating your cake and having it too". The only way to get as close as possible to "good" healthcare is to have enough money to pay for everything out of pocke…

There are already better systems of healthcare. The US one is only good if you're wealthy

It’s actually better to be average Western European than white and top 1-5% American: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullar...

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#262

Post by epistasis »

Waterluvian wrote: post #230
kylehotchkiss wrote: post #222

Earlier quoted context omitted.

* American leadership. The president’s only understanding of our brotherly northern neighbor is South Park portrayals. I haven’t even met a conservative who has ever had any sort of problem with Canada

I really need more Americans to understand that to the other 95% of the world you are a single entity. We don't get to do diplomacy or trade deals with the Democrats or the good Republicans or specific states. The tariffs and threats are American tariffs and American threats.

And the rest of the world has it's thumb on what's actually important: it doesn't really matter what conservatives believe, or liberals believe, or leftists believe, or even what the general US believes, when complete control of the government has been handed over to a single individual and his whims.

Supposed values of conservatives don't matter at all when value #1 is to be obedient to the one person they want to put in charge of all branches of the US government.

The US has emptied its warehouses of precision munitions to fight a war/non-war that nobody inside the US understands, wants, or could even explain in a half rational way. Yet it still happened! So the US is not behaving like a democracy in any functional sense any more. It's an autocracy, where the autocrat does what he wants, no matter what the rest of the nation wants.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#263

Post by gmueckl »

mixdup wrote: post #204
sp1982 wrote: post #100

I have recently started an experiment tracking a sample of 5000 employers in US and I see a bounce last week after a brief lull in july. I am not sure if there is a strong downward trend. https://corvi.careers/reports/usa-weekly-job-openings-report...

It's tough to trust job openings. It is a fact that some number of job postings are ghost jobs that don't exist. Either they're scams from impersonators or the companies are trying to keep a good public face, but many openings sit for MONTHS which just does not line up with the anecdotal evidence of people going 6-12 months without an interview much less an offer

Some of these offers may be part of visa or green card processes. Some require a labor market test in the form of a job ad and recorded response to it. If a suitable candidate applies, the visa/immigration process fails. Still, most companies don't intend to actually hire in this case as far as I understand it.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#264

Post by pfdietz »

eru wrote: post #93
glaslong wrote: post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So perhaps we'll never get to a better healthcare+insurance market (nee "Free") through government, but eventually we will just all work in healthcare, and barter our nursing and dental skills in secret away from the insurance coders.

You can move to Singapore, if you want a better healthcare sector. (The UK spends very roughly half of what the US spends on healthcare in terms of percentage of GDP. That's total (public plus private) expenditure. Singapore spends very roughtly half of what the UK spends by the same measure. Health outcomes amongst the three countries are comparable. If anything, Singapore is healthier.)

Health outcomes in the US are affected by higher levels of obesity. If anything, the higher health spending keeps that from being worse. I expect Ozempic and the like to have a significant impact on this.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#265

Post by amanaplanacanal »

ericmay wrote: post #67
JKCalhoun wrote: post #51

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"And then you have the current president's habit of just lying about everything…" And I suspect, sometime in the future, we're going to discover that the numbers were even worse than we thought they were—were covered up.

Maybe, maybe not. And when a vast majority of the population isn't working what do these numbers really tell us? If we have fewer jobs, but then the people doing those jobs are paid more and thus paying more in taxes, maybe the jobs numbers don't even matter (I'm not sure that's true, just for arguments sake). And let's say they were covered up. Ok and what does that change? Are people who already hate Donald Trump g…

Pretty sure the Democrats would not have done either the ridiculous tariffs or the stupid Iran war. They wouldn't have passed anything like the BBB. Nor would they have tried to scare all the immigrants out of the country.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#266

Post by selicos »

astro1234 wrote: post #105

As a data scientist it is very frustrating to see a consistent lack of error bars on these numbers or any discussion about the magnitude of uncertainty around them by all news reports every time these numbers get released

The BLS has been gutted. It's surprising anything negative is escaping in these reports.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#267

Post by mixdup »

eightysixfour wrote: post #207
mixdup wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's tough to trust job openings. It is a fact that some number of job postings are ghost jobs that don't exist. Either they're scams from impersonators or the companies are trying to keep a good public face, but many openings sit for MONTHS which just does not line up with the anecdotal evidence of people going 6-12 months without an interview much less an offer

I think that is slightly blunted by this person looking at the week over week delta.

maybe, but ghost listings have to be posted at some point, and who knows how long the companies want to let them go (and sometimes they expire and someone needs to refresh them)

they're not all ghost jobs, and there is probably a base level of noise there you can ignore, but the variability doesn't mean the data is great and perfect

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#268

Post by pfdietz »

maerF0x0 wrote: post #123
gruez wrote: post #62

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol_effect Any sector that's resistant to productivity growth is liable to become bigger and bigger part of the economy.

I've seen on youtube how people said a major reason housing is a big employer and housing has not fallen in price is due to their industry's attitude and resistance to introducing technological advancements. in fairness also regulation makes it hard when it specificies the solutions not the parameters (just to illustrate the idea not an actual rule: you must have X thickness of PVC versus your pipe must withstand X p…

And also when doctors are expected to provide the best treatments or else they can be sued for malpractice.

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#269

Post by Joel_Mckay »

kwar13 wrote: post #240
Waterluvian wrote: post #174

Meanwhile Canada is up 75,000 jobs in July. Can't wait to see the next tantrum America throws our way. https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-jobs-july-2026-9.729...

somehow it seems like you're implying that canada is doing better than the usa. just look at the last 10 years of real gdp growth and it couldn't be any worse for canada.

%Debt to GDP ratio is not a subject either country likes to focus on.

The magnificent 7 formed a large portion of the US growth numbers, but many have legally hidden >$1.6Tn in "AI" debt deep in the pages of their reports.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NufJ7g63KSY

The Shrek movie is due out in July 2027, and strangely these often correlated with market corrections in the past. =3

Re: U.S. economy lost 23,000 jobs in July, a sudden reversal

#270

Post by boelboel »

jandrewrogers wrote: post #131
TSiege wrote: post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This isn’t surprising. The population overall is aging. Millenials are now the largest cohort and are approaching middle age. Until recently we’ve seen the number of insured individuals rise consistently and our medicine continues to advance. More older adults have access and need more healthcare

It isn't just aging. Americans are spending a lot more on quality-of-life medical interventions, many of which are outside the normal standard of care that would be covered by healthcare systems. It is a booming business in the US and many people seem to have no trouble paying for it.

It's like the hydration revolution, wealthy Americans (or those who aspire to be) are very conscious about their health/career/investments/childcare/looks. Many of them seem quite neurotic, maybe it's a consequence of individualism and social media. I don't think it's something which is unique to the US but they're just ahead/rich compared to other countries.
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