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What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?

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Re: What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?

#61

Post by BeetleB »

antonymoose wrote: post #52
BeetleB wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm guessing you live in a high COL area? I don't think they're saying $150-300K will be easy, but it should be doable in raising 3 kids if you make sacrifices: 1. Seriously cut down on vacations. As an example, in the first 19 years of my life I slept in a hotel for perhaps 10 nights total (over 3 separate vacations). We did not feel at all deprived. Those who do are definitely "keeping up with the Joneses". 2. Don'…

I truly appreciate the thoughtful reply, really - we comply with most of if not all of it. Unfortunately, the last 10-15 years has truly shifted what was once a low or middle tier CoL area into a higher tier. The Carolina Lowcountry went from hidden gem to a playground for the rich, or as a friend once put it “Antebellum Disneyland.” I’ve used the example in other areas - my first team lead bought his house at 300k a…

> I’ve used the example in other areas - my first team lead bought his house at 300k and sold it for over 1M last year.

Yikes. How big is the house?

I assure you that I live in an above average COL area, and with $200K it's doable. With $300K you can get most of the luxuries I mentioned in the list (but won't retire early).

Re: What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?

#62

Post by programmertote »

glimshe wrote: post #15
programmertote wrote: post #6

> Still, this rate merits carefully watching in coming months; a continued decline may signal a deeper change in the behavior of workers in this critical age group. I know I'm speaking from a rather (somewhat) privileged position. I myself don't consider working beyond 50 years of age. I have lived frugally/minimally and am confident that (unless WW3 happens or some sort of unexpected global catastrophe arrives) I ca…

I bailed out at 50 while fully employed and making a ton of money in big tech - I was not laid off, I simply let my manager know, found a replacement and walked away. I have kids but I saved enough for healthcare, housing etc. I worked my ass off and lived very frugally to get here. Yes, I would be screwed if WW3 comes along, but who wouldn't? That comfy Big Tech job would vanish pretty quickly too. I have no desire…

You are living my dream! When I retire, I want to teach for underserved areas; I also want to help out in some ways related to the homelessness problem. Plus, I want to learn how to play piano/guitar and learn how to swim properly (I can swim, but not too well). I also want to try improv. I have ever-growing books that I want to read. So many things I can do to enjoy life personally and do something nice (albeit it having just a teeny tiny impact) for the future generation and humanity.

> I have no desire to keep working for random "Mikes" and "Bobs" in upper management that only care about their bonuses and stocks. Not in Big Tech, not in random startups, not anywhere else. "Mike wants this", "Bob wants that"... Gosh, I couldn't care less about their "direction"!

Agreed! That's one of my motivation to retire early. :)

Re: What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?

#63

Post by tomhow »

reinitctxoffset wrote: post #20
lifestyleguru wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Looks like trickling up of the covid money is definitely complete now.

[flagged]

We've banned this account for using HN for ideological battle and posting incoherent but apparently threatening comments. Please don't poison HN like this. Thoughtful debate is always fine here.

Re: What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?

#64

Post by glimshe »

programmertote wrote: post #62
glimshe wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I bailed out at 50 while fully employed and making a ton of money in big tech - I was not laid off, I simply let my manager know, found a replacement and walked away. I have kids but I saved enough for healthcare, housing etc. I worked my ass off and lived very frugally to get here. Yes, I would be screwed if WW3 comes along, but who wouldn't? That comfy Big Tech job would vanish pretty quickly too. I have no desire…

You are living my dream! When I retire, I want to teach for underserved areas; I also want to help out in some ways related to the homelessness problem. Plus, I want to learn how to play piano/guitar and learn how to swim properly (I can swim, but not too well). I also want to try improv. I have ever-growing books that I want to read. So many things I can do to enjoy life personally and do something nice (albeit it h…

I hope you get there! I made a lot of sacrifices. The one thing I'll say is to have the projects lined up. Don't leave the figuring out for after you stop working for others.

Re: What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?

#65

Post by xnx »

glimshe wrote: post #15
programmertote wrote: post #6

> Still, this rate merits carefully watching in coming months; a continued decline may signal a deeper change in the behavior of workers in this critical age group. I know I'm speaking from a rather (somewhat) privileged position. I myself don't consider working beyond 50 years of age. I have lived frugally/minimally and am confident that (unless WW3 happens or some sort of unexpected global catastrophe arrives) I ca…

I bailed out at 50 while fully employed and making a ton of money in big tech - I was not laid off, I simply let my manager know, found a replacement and walked away. I have kids but I saved enough for healthcare, housing etc. I worked my ass off and lived very frugally to get here. Yes, I would be screwed if WW3 comes along, but who wouldn't? That comfy Big Tech job would vanish pretty quickly too. I have no desire…

I also commend you for not "hogging all the work". If you've done well and don't have to work, it's generous to let someone else have their turn.

Re: What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?

#66

Post by ChiperSoft »

programmertote wrote: post #6

> Still, this rate merits carefully watching in coming months; a continued decline may signal a deeper change in the behavior of workers in this critical age group. I know I'm speaking from a rather (somewhat) privileged position. I myself don't consider working beyond 50 years of age. I have lived frugally/minimally and am confident that (unless WW3 happens or some sort of unexpected global catastrophe arrives) I ca…

I'm 45. I caught asymptomatic coronavirus in 2024 and developed Long COVID, burned out hard from my role as a Principal Engineer.

We got lucky and just happened to inherit my in-laws estate the very week that I was let go in my company's third round of layoffs. Spouse and I decided it was best to take some time away from tech and see what happens from the AI bubble.

Two years later, I'm ready to work again, but the jobs aren't there. Everything I read and everyone I talk to says that even if they were, I would probably hate the work anyway (I can't stand LLMs or the code they produce).

So I guess I'm retired now.

Re: What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?

#67

Post by inigyou »

zaptheimpaler wrote: post #37
darth_avocado wrote: post #11

Im in the prime working age and if I didn’t have responsibilities (mortgage, health insurance, dependents etc.), I’d quit today and not participate for at least a couple of years. Corporate treatment of workers has deteriorated at an unprecedented rate since Covid and based on my anecdotal evidence we probably have a national level burnout and depression epidemic that no one is talking about or looking into. Most peo…

One of my colleagues said that working in software is like being a pro athlete nowadays and that struck me as true. The expectations just keep going higher and higher and higher across the board. But we sure aren't given the training, coaching, recovery, salary or recognition of pro athletes. COVID and AI are great examples of what's wrong today. We created an incredible global communication network that lets us all…

> 2x more productive (conservatively)

studies keep showing numbers closer to -0.2x more productive. But your point stands, since those in charge of assigning our salaries think it's more than 2x.

Re: What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?

#68

Post by inigyou »

reinitctxoffset wrote: post #29
reinitctxoffset wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

@dang this gets brigaded? It goes in the lawsuit.

Organic downvotes at human speed are fine. GP getting flagged at machine speed? Nah dawg. That's a hard no. Edit: oh gee willicker. I completely forgot to mention I chart all of this. I don't even need an HMM. XGboost prints the fucking switch statement.

You got banned, that means all of your comments are now flagged automatically.

Re: What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?

#69

Post by inigyou »

whatever1 wrote: post #12

In south Europe it has been the case for like 20 years. The answer is simple. Businesses don’t pay enough. People prefer cutting expenses and expectations (nobody in their 30-40s buys a house for example). Businesses cannot find labor or customers. So it is a downward spiral. Everyone loses.

Governments have tools they can use to make this spiral go up or down. The current direction and velocity of the spiral are policy choices. The most basic one would be the interest rate (not available to Italy because of the Eurozone)

Re: What's Behind the Sharp Drop in Labor Force Participation?

#70

Post by inigyou »

xeromal wrote: post #26
antonymoose wrote: post #25

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Try raising a classic family of three with a stay at home spouse in that salary in any metro. You will quickly learn how fast those dollars disappear. Somehow my grandfather did this as a painter. Inflation is a killer.

Only if you're trying to keep up with the Joneses.

No. Do the math.
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