41–50 of 54 posts
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The propagandised idea that living in China means living under an oppressive communist regime, runs counter to the countries wild success at pretty much everything it does.
Hey, remember Naomi Wu? She used to post a lot here. I wonder whatever happened to her?
I don't fully agree with Zitron on all his points but it's very hard to disprove the larger points will somehow resolve themselves. One point that I think will determine the future, moreso with data centers, is politics. Laws are not unchangeable and making decisions that determine the next 5-10 years of action based on the current law is a recipe for disaster. "Buying" a politician still has to account for the fact…
I don't think Zitron has been right about anything in the last 5 years. But he talks a good talk.
Another thing those comments have in common is that they offer no logical or rational explanation of why he is supposedly wrong.
I don't think Zitron has been right about anything in the last 5 years. But he talks a good talk.
Every post about Zitron here seems to have a comment like yours at the top. Another thing those comments have in common is that they offer no logical or rational explanation of why he is supposedly wrong.
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I cannot understand why people listen to him? I feel like I must be living in an alternate universe to a substantial amount of people? It's bananas...
The problem with his work is that a lot of the conclusions he comes to are a step too far, but the problems he identifies with how money is moving or how much datacenters cost or how no one has ever built a 1GW datacenter and we're expected to believe they can build a bunch of them, or even a 10GW data center - those are real.
And if he can consistently be so wrong on those things, and has no real education in the field, then why the hell should I listen to him when he's screaming FUD at the top of his lungs?
It reminds me of the gold guys who constantly talk about how the dollar crash is mere months away. One day that is likely true, but when those guys predict it month after month and get it wrong all of those times, I don't really take their theses seriously.
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I cannot understand why people listen to him? I feel like I must be living in an alternate universe to a substantial amount of people? It's bananas...
Well he's saying what a lot of people desperately want to believe.
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I cannot understand why people listen to him? I feel like I must be living in an alternate universe to a substantial amount of people? It's bananas...
> It's bananas... Actually, it's lemons ( https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/Zitron ). Sorry, I couldn't resist:)
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So his big insight is that if you take away the two largest customers the demand is much lower? Wow, such informative. > The GPUs and the high bandwidth memory they use have little use other than to run and train these LLMs. It's compute, and can be used to compute anything.
It's GPU compute, which is a lot more niche. There are only so many things you can render or simulate and only so many people/companies who want to render or simulate something. Not even remotely enough to create enough demand to saturate a trillion dollars worth of GPU data centres.
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The problem with his work is that a lot of the conclusions he comes to are a step too far, but the problems he identifies with how money is moving or how much datacenters cost or how no one has ever built a 1GW datacenter and we're expected to believe they can build a bunch of them, or even a 10GW data center - those are real.
I am not so sure that those are actual problems? I mean, "they're problems" - but everyone is still acting like it's 1996! The world is changing fast... And if he can consistently be so wrong on those things, and has no real education in the field, then why the hell should I listen to him when he's screaming FUD at the top of his lungs? It reminds me of the gold guys who constantly talk about how the dollar crash is…
He explains some more numbers in the following paragraphs (that aren't needed to make my point), but the problem isn't even that AI can't make any money, it's that the scale of the money spent is so colossal, what they would need to do to actually make it back is insane! They'd need to actually replace most of the workers in the world because that is such a ridiculous, unimaginable amount of money! It outclasses all of their combined revenue significantly, and remember, these companies don't tell us how much money they make from AI (anymore), they bundle it in with other things, and if it was good, you know they'd be shouting it from the rooftops how much they were making.
I also don't take seriously any of his predictions that have dates attached to them - after all, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. I don't trust his timing, but the numbers don't lie.
[1] https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-more-you-buy-the-more-you-lo...
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> little demand for the AI compute power outside of OpenAI and Anthropic. I think every other business is going to slowly wake up to how powerful machine learning can be, and or, how important it will be to run your own models you can trust. I don't doubt that there is a bubble, but once the hardware is built, there will be plenty of customers. I guess if you overpay for hardware, you can be undercut by data centers…
Go have a look at that Seedance thread. Movies and TV will be completely AI in the future.