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Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

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Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#11

Post by landedgentry »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #4
perpetuallunch wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> making decisions that determine the next 5-10 years of action based on the current law is a recipe for disaster. How else can one make business decisions? Or any long term decision, financial or otherwise. If you are correct, which I fear you may be, then we, in the West generally, are now living in a low trust society . Which is not a good thing at all , and should be of utmost concern.

Let us assume a person cannot change society, they simply do not have the leverage, even if they are a billionaire or most politicians. This is a systems problem, requiring enormous investment of time and resources to change trajectories of. Therefore, the choices available are to continue to live in a low trust society, or move to a high trust society and minimize your exposure to low trust society impact on your li…

This data conflicts with my image of Japan and China, and I wonder where the discrepancy lies.

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#12

Post by bdangubic »

Driver4732 wrote: post #9
jay_kyburz wrote: post #6

So right towards the end Zitron says it isn't clear what Google, MS and Amazons plan is. But he just finished explaining that Anthropic and Open AI are paying for them to build data centers, and implied that on face value, this was to rent the data centers back to Anthropic and Open AI. Seems to me they are just bleeding them dry so that when the money runs out for Anthropic and Open AI, they will be left with data c…

If you read more of Zitron's work, he says that there's little demand for the AI compute power outside of OpenAI and Anthropic. If they are bled dry, then the hyperscalers will not have enough customers for the data centers which they have blown so much capex spend on and will have to soon go into debt to ensure they can be built. The GPUs and the high bandwidth memory they use have little use other than to run and t…

and he wrong on all of those accounts. but he’s got the best gig, he has been writing literally one same article for years, gets LLM to shuffle the words and publishes it under a different title :)

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#13

Post by toomuchtodo »

landedgentry wrote: post #11
toomuchtodo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let us assume a person cannot change society, they simply do not have the leverage, even if they are a billionaire or most politicians. This is a systems problem, requiring enormous investment of time and resources to change trajectories of. Therefore, the choices available are to continue to live in a low trust society, or move to a high trust society and minimize your exposure to low trust society impact on your li…

This data conflicts with my image of Japan and China, and I wonder where the discrepancy lies.

I cannot speak to China, but my recent personal experience is that Japan is high trust throughout Tokyo, Kyoto, and Osaka. Would love to hear about the trust situation in China from anywhere who has recent ground truth.

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#15

Post by DanHulton »

perpetuallunch wrote: post #3
tolugenius wrote: post #2

I don't fully agree with Zitron on all his points but it's very hard to disprove the larger points will somehow resolve themselves. One point that I think will determine the future, moreso with data centers, is politics. Laws are not unchangeable and making decisions that determine the next 5-10 years of action based on the current law is a recipe for disaster. "Buying" a politician still has to account for the fact…

> making decisions that determine the next 5-10 years of action based on the current law is a recipe for disaster. How else can one make business decisions? Or any long term decision, financial or otherwise. If you are correct, which I fear you may be, then we, in the West generally, are now living in a low trust society . Which is not a good thing at all , and should be of utmost concern.

I feel like it’s been understood that we live in a low trust society for a while now. If not for all of us, at least for a LOT of us.

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#16

Post by jay_kyburz »

Driver4732 wrote: post #9
jay_kyburz wrote: post #6

So right towards the end Zitron says it isn't clear what Google, MS and Amazons plan is. But he just finished explaining that Anthropic and Open AI are paying for them to build data centers, and implied that on face value, this was to rent the data centers back to Anthropic and Open AI. Seems to me they are just bleeding them dry so that when the money runs out for Anthropic and Open AI, they will be left with data c…

If you read more of Zitron's work, he says that there's little demand for the AI compute power outside of OpenAI and Anthropic. If they are bled dry, then the hyperscalers will not have enough customers for the data centers which they have blown so much capex spend on and will have to soon go into debt to ensure they can be built. The GPUs and the high bandwidth memory they use have little use other than to run and t…

> little demand for the AI compute power outside of OpenAI and Anthropic.

I think every other business is going to slowly wake up to how powerful machine learning can be, and or, how important it will be to run your own models you can trust.

I don't doubt that there is a bubble, but once the hardware is built, there will be plenty of customers.

I guess if you overpay for hardware, you can be undercut by data centers built after the bubble pops, but that might just mean your return on investment is slower.

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#17

Post by jay_kyburz »

jay_kyburz wrote: post #16
Driver4732 wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If you read more of Zitron's work, he says that there's little demand for the AI compute power outside of OpenAI and Anthropic. If they are bled dry, then the hyperscalers will not have enough customers for the data centers which they have blown so much capex spend on and will have to soon go into debt to ensure they can be built. The GPUs and the high bandwidth memory they use have little use other than to run and t…

> little demand for the AI compute power outside of OpenAI and Anthropic. I think every other business is going to slowly wake up to how powerful machine learning can be, and or, how important it will be to run your own models you can trust. I don't doubt that there is a bubble, but once the hardware is built, there will be plenty of customers. I guess if you overpay for hardware, you can be undercut by data centers…

Go have a look at that Seedance thread. Movies and TV will be completely AI in the future.

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#18

Post by dd8601fn »

jay_kyburz wrote: post #6

So right towards the end Zitron says it isn't clear what Google, MS and Amazons plan is. But he just finished explaining that Anthropic and Open AI are paying for them to build data centers, and implied that on face value, this was to rent the data centers back to Anthropic and Open AI. Seems to me they are just bleeding them dry so that when the money runs out for Anthropic and Open AI, they will be left with data c…

His follow-up point was, "that seems like a ridiculously nice double-dipping situation" until you realize that money depends on only two "unsustainable" customers, spending other people's money, that now have to become absurdly massive to ever make this work.

Re: Zitron: "Everyone Has Been Sold a Lie" on AI [video]

#20

Post by HWR_14 »

perpetuallunch wrote: post #3
tolugenius wrote: post #2

I don't fully agree with Zitron on all his points but it's very hard to disprove the larger points will somehow resolve themselves. One point that I think will determine the future, moreso with data centers, is politics. Laws are not unchangeable and making decisions that determine the next 5-10 years of action based on the current law is a recipe for disaster. "Buying" a politician still has to account for the fact…

> making decisions that determine the next 5-10 years of action based on the current law is a recipe for disaster. How else can one make business decisions? Or any long term decision, financial or otherwise. If you are correct, which I fear you may be, then we, in the West generally, are now living in a low trust society . Which is not a good thing at all , and should be of utmost concern.

In a newly evolving situation, you have to assume that it's possible that the laws will change. Typically the way you account for this is hedging or keeping reserves to adapt.
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