Earlier quoted context omitted.
Then why state it?
Because Hacker News appreciates discussion of the theoretical, that exceeds the bounds of what mainstream society thought was possible.
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Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
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Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#92>Even including July's losses, the fund remains up about 80% on the year Spectacular blowup and a lesson on leverage, but let's not miss this line.
You’re missing the core story which is that they don’t have a returns crisis they have a liquidity crisis. Finds don’t blow up because they have bad returns. Funds implode because they have no cash to cover their calls and other needs for cash.
Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
That’s truly the playbook when you are on the other side of a levered firm though.
Yeah, probably. Its too bad.
Too bad for the people that were overleveraged? I don’t see why, they assumed too much risk and lost. This isn’t a WSB guy blowing up, it’s a collection of capital from sophisticated investors that understand the risks.
Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#94Earlier on HN: Martin Shkreli breaks down the collapse of Situational Awareness - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49119380 Edit: added context
Why are you promoting content by Martin Shkreli? You know, the guy who committed securities fraud to rip off desperate patients?
Why do you think that just sharing a link to an earlier HN post means 'promoting' someone? I referenced the HN post because I found that it's less about Martin Shkreli himself and more about a quality conversation with good analysis about the inner workings of 'Hedge fund' world and market dynamics.
If you've a better source, share it; I'll have a look and might use that one in the future. Otherwise, if you can't contribute in a constructive manner, stop making baseless comments about others intention without understanding them first.
Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#95Quite the funny headline. It initially made me think that someone had come up with some sort of quantitative measure of the situational awareness of traders, and was claiming that there was an increase in traders making dumb trades that misread the situation or something. Ironically, I would describe this selloff as an increase in situational awareness.
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Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#96Quite the funny headline. It initially made me think that someone had come up with some sort of quantitative measure of the situational awareness of traders, and was claiming that there was an increase in traders making dumb trades that misread the situation or something. Ironically, I would describe this selloff as an increase in situational awareness.
I would definitely be interested in seeing someone come up with some kind of “situational awareness” index, to evaluate how much the market actually knows about what it’s investing in.
It'd only really work retrospectively, but would be quite fun to see. Especially ones that investigate previous bubbles.
Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#97This is everywhere. For reference, former FTXer and OpenAIer raised $225m into a hedge fund structure, went long and short, and reportedly peaked at $40bn of value; leverage bit hard this week and they sold their entire-ish portfolio to Citadel at $10bn. (Which, I imagine was very likely aiming at this outcome in their trading in the last few weeks). Not reported anywhere -- was additional money raised in to the fund…
I strongly suspect it's closer to the latter; CNBC says they had to sell rapidly to meet margin requirements and it couldn't be confirmed if they actually succeeded. Suggests there was a lot more than $250m in collateral on the line.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/leopold-aschenbrenners-hedge...
Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#98Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#99Earlier quoted context omitted.
Why are you promoting content by Martin Shkreli? You know, the guy who committed securities fraud to rip off desperate patients?
He's an absolute ghoul, and to see sibling comments praising him breaks my heart. Yeah, he "did his time", but he also took advantage of sick people for immense profit. You don't get a pass for that.
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Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast let's be clear here - he didn't actually "lose" a ton of money. he was up 439% net in the first half of 2026. his issue was getting margin called due to being short on software (which went up) and long on AI infra (which went down) - getting margin called != losing money.
> let's be clear here - he didn't actually "lose" a ton of money. he was up 439% net in the first half of 2026. He's down 67% on the month. He most certainly lost alot of money. He'll be fine and i think he'll be successful at raising more money, and he's still up on the year as far as I've been told by LP's, but he sure did lose alot of money this month.
Aren’t month over month gains and losses aren’t particularly surprising nor noteworthy when you’re operating a leveraged fund? Shouldn’t one expect higher volatility, but also higher returns?