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Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

wsj.com

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Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#81

Post by hn_throwaway_99 »

mamonster wrote: post #65
scrlk wrote: post #31

> Aschenbrenner party blamed short sellers who targeted the firm’s positions for exacerbating the fund’s losses, the letter said. The letter compared Situational’s experience to a bank run. 4 years ago, it was SBF blaming Changpeng Zhao for shorting FTT and triggering a run on FTX. Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast, using the exact same argumen…

>Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast, using the exact same arguments for why it happened. I would be very interested to know what he did with the management and performance fees (and how much they were) he gathered over the last 3 years. Just the perf fees from 2025 are probably enough to set him up for life. If he reinvested not so great.

> I would be very interested to know what he did with the management and performance fees

I mean, I'm pretty sure he pocketed the money and got richer. Most hedge fund compensation structure has always (ironically, I'd add, given the name "hedge" fund) incentivized volatility over long term performance.

Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#85

Post by next_xibalba »

And yet:

> Despite the July losses, Situational Awareness remains up about 80% on the year and holds a portfolio of investments in private companies including Anthropic.

80% return (YTD) is the type of performance for which many hedge fund managers would sacrifice their first born.

Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#86

Post by stephbook »

scrlk wrote: post #31

> Aschenbrenner party blamed short sellers who targeted the firm’s positions for exacerbating the fund’s losses, the letter said. The letter compared Situational’s experience to a bank run. 4 years ago, it was SBF blaming Changpeng Zhao for shorting FTT and triggering a run on FTX. Now another EA has followed the path of making a lot of money relatively quickly and losing it just as fast, using the exact same argumen…

Even Wirecard – a fraudulent German bank missing some billions of euros and run by a Russian spy – always blamed bad press.

Denials mean nothing.

Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#88

Post by axus »

infecto wrote: post #48
jghn wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I say this with absolutely no evidence and only stating it as a hypothetical. But as an example it would be plausible that insider trading was involved.

Then why state it?

Because Hacker News appreciates discussion of the theoretical, that exceeds the bounds of what mainstream society thought was possible.

Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#89

Post by literalAardvark »

fred_is_fred wrote: post #78
literalAardvark wrote: post #53

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because hn is primarily about competence, knowledge and tech, which Martin has in spades. The arguments against him barely hold water in general anyway.

A federal jury sure thought they held water.

Martin was convicted on three counts of securities fraud. The TL;DR is he was shilling a successful fund while sitting on massive losses. A Madoff kinda thing.

This has nothing to do with what people actually hate him for, and for which he was not convicted, because extracting money from a captive clientele is exactly what the US healthcare system is designed to do.

Re: Situational Awareness down 67% in July in AI stock rout

#90

Post by deadbabe »

eigenspace wrote: post #8

Quite the funny headline. It initially made me think that someone had come up with some sort of quantitative measure of the situational awareness of traders, and was claiming that there was an increase in traders making dumb trades that misread the situation or something. Ironically, I would describe this selloff as an increase in situational awareness.

I would definitely be interested in seeing someone come up with some kind of “situational awareness” index, to evaluate how much the market actually knows about what it’s investing in.
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