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Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

macrumors.com

81–90 of 370 posts

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#81

That article is a bit incoherent. I think it is pretty clear at this point that Apple has gone all-in on being the ideal edge silicon for AI. This leverages their core competencies, requires only modest investment, and will likely pay out no matter how the AI market eventually shakes out. They are in one of the only parts of the obvious future AI market where there isn't really a fight for greenfield turf with other…

Not really. Their new Siri is powered by Gemini.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#82

That fabled line one must cross to achieve profit is ridiculously out of alignment with the current valuations on AI. Its why SPCX is falling like a meteor, currently at $111 per share. The people who are going to end up making the most money on this are creditors and future businesses. When the AI bubble does pop there will be a massive glut of data centers and hardware available. Both Apple and Microsoft are realig…

I've never heard a compelling thesis for why this is a bubble that will pop. From my perspective AI adoption is just getting started, and every organization I see that starts on the journey only ramps up tokens dramatically. Even just sticking with current model capabilities we have years of business automation, personal automation, and so much more to saturate data centers. As the models improve that only makes more sense. Rather than Apple watching anything burn I think they are going to end up looking like nitwits who missed the boat.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#83
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are good sources of well-argued AI skepticism, and then there's Ed Zitron.

Well he's not a developer or science guy or smart at all so in his view, AI doesn't work because sometimes it makes mistakes.

This but instead it's people insisting that AI will replace my job (been three months out for at least 3 years now) because they know it involves words.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#84

I don't know if Ed Zitron is right about allhis analysis, but it's nice to have an alternative, well-argued narrative to the gushing torrent of AI company propaganda.

The entire internet is full of anti-AI discussion and a straight up disbelief in any chance of success. Implying there is a "gushing torrent" of pro AI narrative is bizarrely out of touch. We both know this isn't true.

I think AI discourse is revealing some new contours to the information bubbles that we all live in.

folks in the US have been pretty aware that bubbles based on political opinions -- we're all surrounded by news from "our side" yet we know the other side exists in some other bubble. but for AI, we're all either surrounded by pro- or anti- opinions and its a little shocking to learn that theres a parallel internet with the opposite stance. especially shocking when you find somebody that lives in teh same political bubble but opposite AI bubble.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#85
post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Read a little more of what he's written before you praise him, so you don't end up looking as dumb as I did. Ed may be right about some of his claims, but he is 100% a crank, and he makes so many incoherent claims I'd say that if he's right, it's in the nature of a broken clock.

[flagged]

> Show us on the doll where Zitron touched you

Comment read sensibly until this bit.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> LLM technology doesn't work very well for software development This comment is so obviously false (in my experience) I'm wondering what sort of niche environment you're working in

remember, how useful LLMs are is inversely proportional to your skills. i have yet to have an LLM beat me. i am forced to try regularly so i don't look like an AI anti at a company that is very much SV pilled

I don’t think people like Linus Torvalds or Stephen Wolfram feel like language models beat them, just they’ve managed to find specific cases where flawed brainless workhorses serve their needs.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#87

That article is a bit incoherent. I think it is pretty clear at this point that Apple has gone all-in on being the ideal edge silicon for AI. This leverages their core competencies, requires only modest investment, and will likely pay out no matter how the AI market eventually shakes out. They are in one of the only parts of the obvious future AI market where there isn't really a fight for greenfield turf with other…

They've been investing in NPUs for a long long time. Since the first iPad Pro at least (2018). Apple Silicon is a natural fit for tensor/matrix operations due to unified memory, so if anything them going "all in" on that has been a nice side effect.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#88
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are good sources of well-argued AI skepticism, and then there's Ed Zitron.

At this point I have yet to hear a solid argument against his arguments that use half as much evidence as he does. That isn’t to say that he’s right, that’s just to say that while he gets creative in his phrasing numbers don’t lie and I haven’t seen anyone else present competing numbers that make sense. If anyone has them to the degree with which he provides them then please, by all means, I’m interested.

I don’t have numbers, but I would like to point out that he's missing a crucial number as well. The fact that maxing out a subscription's limit makes a user generate an amount of tokens that costs much more than the subscription itslef isn't enough to back his claim. What we need to know, is the average use of subscriptions. Think about Gyms. My gut feeling is that, if we run the numbers, we see that by maxing out a gym subscription we can get more value out of it than what we paid for. And still, gyms are profitable because the average customer is using less than what they're paying for. Now, I still think AI companies will have to rise their prices (they are already doing that), but the situation could be less dramatic than what people pointing at those figures based on subscription maxing are claiming.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#89
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>> LLM technology doesn't work very well for software development This comment is so obviously false (in my experience) I'm wondering what sort of niche environment you're working in

Just my personal experience. I'm not really interested in giving up more personal details in this forum, apologies for that.

I'm generally pretty accepting of trust me bro style arguments where we some claims presented without evidence. Especially for AI, sure some model just rm -rf ed your home directy bro sounds bad. It works fine for online discourse.

This is less agreeable. You kind of just made statements without even having claims (even without requirement of evidence or details) to back them up.

This is like the illusion of contribution.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#90

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Welcome to Ed Zitron. There is a reason this man doesn't heavily short the same companies he criticizes. Be wary of anyone that won't put their money where their mouth is.

> There is a reason this man doesn't heavily short the same companies he criticizes yes, because in order to take a short position you have to predict exactly when the bubble is going to pop, which is different from predicting that at some point it will

> you have to predict exactly when the bubble is going to pop

Not true.

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