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Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

macrumors.com

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Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#51

Post by jandrewrogers »

That article is a bit incoherent.

I think it is pretty clear at this point that Apple has gone all-in on being the ideal edge silicon for AI. This leverages their core competencies, requires only modest investment, and will likely pay out no matter how the AI market eventually shakes out. They are in one of the only parts of the obvious future AI market where there isn't really a fight for greenfield turf with other big companies.

Staying in their lane is arguably the optimal business decision for Apple and they lose nothing by it.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#52

Post by satellites »

Maybe a dumb question, but isn't the idea that the efficiency of the models will improve with time, such that you won't be burning hundreds of dollars of tokens for most queries?

Fable is great, but Opus can handle most coding tasks for a fraction of the cost, and Sonnet is good enough for average questions or word processing tasks.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#53

Post by [deleted] »

awakeasleep wrote: post #12
bananamogul wrote: post #2

I don't know if Ed Zitron is right about allhis analysis, but it's nice to have an alternative, well-argued narrative to the gushing torrent of AI company propaganda.

Read a little more of what he's written before you praise him, so you don't end up looking as dumb as I did. Ed may be right about some of his claims, but he is 100% a crank, and he makes so many incoherent claims I'd say that if he's right, it's in the nature of a broken clock.

[deleted]

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#54

Post by whateveracct »

Legend2440 wrote: post #9
bananamogul wrote: post #2

I don't know if Ed Zitron is right about allhis analysis, but it's nice to have an alternative, well-argued narrative to the gushing torrent of AI company propaganda.

Is it though? He's more of a gushing torrent of anti-AI propaganda. He has an agenda too, it's just the opposite one.

his agenda is less existential and backed by less money and power than Sam A and Dario's

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#55

Post by nilkn »

sssilver wrote: post #41

I will never understand the decision-making process that led to "Let's build an awesome VR headset that can't do gaming". I would love to replace my monitor with Apple Vision Pro for programming and productivity. I would gladly pay $1000 for that. But at $4000 it really needs to put me in a Microsoft Flight Simulator cockpit.

For me, the economics are the exact opposite. I'd pay $1000 for a good gaming VR headset, but not $4000 -- because gaming is just a hobby that isn't really worth that much to me. Gaming VR headsets have been around for well over a decade, I've "been there, done that", and it's just not something that's worth that much money to me. However, I have no problem paying $3500+ for something that creates a new category of productivity and entertainment experiences for me.

Besides that, I actually disagree that the Vision Pro is not good for gaming. It's not good for traditional VR gaming, but using apps like Portal it's phenomenal for, e.g., playing existing PS5 games on a massive virtual screen, which in many ways I actually enjoy more than VR gaming, which is far too limited in comparison.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#56

Post by DANmode »

sajithdilshan wrote: post #25

This is quite a short sighted analysis. I do think the valuations are quite and they would need to meet the reality, but don’t think there’s gonna be a crash or we’d ever go back to pre-AI era. It would more or less would be a correction to valuations. The future of AI would be on-device models which are as powerful as current frontier models and also I can imagine companies have their own deployments of inference of…

The validity and permanence of a technology has literally nothing to do with how irresponsible people have been while placing speculative bets on it.

In this case, it’s really irresponsible.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#57

Post by LogicFailsMe »

ofjcihen wrote: post #15
tptacek wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are good sources of well-argued AI skepticism, and then there's Ed Zitron.

At this point I have yet to hear a solid argument against his arguments that use half as much evidence as he does. That isn’t to say that he’s right, that’s just to say that while he gets creative in his phrasing numbers don’t lie and I haven’t seen anyone else present competing numbers that make sense. If anyone has them to the degree with which he provides them then please, by all means, I’m interested.

"The biggest thing we’ve learned from the large language model generation is how many people are excited to replace human beings, and how many people just don’t understand labour of any kind"

Really? I think we've heard C-suite blabbermouths and borderline nontechnical tech CEOs being amplified by social media making these assertions, but boy did the weakly efficient market deliver a relatively swift correction to that mindset, no?

Q: "What would it take to change your point of view?" A: "[AI] would have to solve all hallucinations forever, which they are completely incapable [of]."

Can you produce a human that is infallible? I'll wait.

Finally: https://martinalderson.com/posts/no-it-doesnt-cost-anthropic...

My hot take is AI is increasingly less unprofitable as the cost of serving tokens drops and Nvidia's ongoing offers to guarantee profitability is a sign that it isn't stopping anytime soon.

https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/nvidia-gpu-debt-backst...

You either believe in the underlying science and technology or you don't. But in a world where AI is a fad like cabbage patch kids and beanie babies, what's next?

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#58

Post by whateveracct »

anthonyrstevens wrote: post #42
dan_gee wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A resolute anti-AI perspective is a breath of fresh air compared to the middle-of-the-road "AI made me 10x more productive BUT"-style comments. My professional opinion is that LLM technology doesn't work very well for software development and I'm not interested in hemming and hawing over its supposed benefits any longer.

>> LLM technology doesn't work very well for software development This comment is so obviously false (in my experience) I'm wondering what sort of niche environment you're working in

remember, how useful LLMs are is inversely proportional to your skills.

i have yet to have an LLM beat me. i am forced to try regularly so i don't look like an AI anti at a company that is very much SV pilled

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#59

Post by ghaff »

59percentmore wrote: post #27

His read on the Apple Vision Pro (both the circumstances of its creation and its path forward) are incorrect in quite the discouraging manner for me. AVP wasn't released early (late, if anything), and it wasn't a dud because of Tim Cook's disinterest. I also think it's irresponsible to not broach the obvious implication of "PC components becoming prohibitively expensive" + "untold amounts of compute sitting in comput…

Tim Cook was probably mostly disinterested because it didn't seem like a real business opportunity. Wherever AVP fell on the VR/AR spectrum, VR (while having other opportunities) was mostly a niche for high-end gamers and AR, whatever the possibilities in some future idealized form with fashionable glasses that give you lots of information about what/who you're looking at is a long way from reality.

Re: Apple Will 'Watch Everything Burn' When the AI Bubble Bursts

#60

Post by austin-cheney »

That fabled line one must cross to achieve profit is ridiculously out of alignment with the current valuations on AI. Its why SPCX is falling like a meteor, currently at $111 per share.

The people who are going to end up making the most money on this are creditors and future businesses. When the AI bubble does pop there will be a massive glut of data centers and hardware available. Both Apple and Microsoft are realigning their entire businesses to brace for this. When the AI bubble pops businesses that sell hardware, like Apple and Microsoft, will face an immediate price shock because they have had to raise prices to account for more expensive hardware. That shock will be short lived and prices will fall accordingly with disruption to supply chain but otherwise minimal disruption to margins.

I look forward to the bubble popping because when retail hardware becomes cheap again all kinds of new business opportunities will open in the self-hosted service market.

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