OP, please add India as a shock target option if possible. It imports close to 80+% of its crude oil and gas requirements and is highly vulnerable to oil flow shocks.
Thanks, added to list of possible UX improvements
Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
111–120 of 136 posts
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#112It's good
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#113Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not completely unrelated. Both were likely entered to distract from the same news story dogging him every 24hr cycle.
No, the attack on Iran was simply instigated by Israel, which has been trying to push the US in a war with Iran since at least 20 years. Trump has a long history of doing what Israel wants- it's him who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem (which was illegally annexed by Israel), tore up the nuclear agreement with Iran, sanctioned the ICC, sponsored accords to get Arab states to accept the occupation of Palestine, and j…
I disagree with the current Iran action, however we can't just say that Iran has been forthcoming and compliant with their agreements.
>During the 1990s and early 2000s, Iran developed several undeclared sites, which were identified by international observers in 2002 and 2009. Following the collapse of negotiations with the EU-3 in 2005, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors found Iran in non-compliance with its NPT safeguards agreement,[6][7][8] leading the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) to pass a series of resolutions between 2006 and 2010 demanding a suspension of Iran's enrichment-related activities and targeting Iran’s banking, trade, and energy sectors.
>In late 2003, Iran was facing the prospect of censure and agreed to a degree of cooperation. In October 2003, Iran and the foreign ministers of Britain, France, and Germany (the "EU-3") struck the Tehran Agreement: Iran pledged to temporarily suspend all uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities, allow more intrusive inspections by signing the Additional Protocol, and clarify past nuclear work. This deal, reached just ahead of an IAEA Board of Governors deadline, was intended to build confidence while a longer-term solution was negotiated. However, Iran's cooperation was halting and incomplete.[22]
>In 2004 and 2005, the IAEA uncovered inconsistencies and omissions in Iran's disclosures, such as experiments with plutonium separation and advanced P-2 centrifuge designs that Iran had failed to report. Iran's suspension of enrichment proved short-lived as soon it resumed certain nuclear activities. In June 2004, the IAEA's Board rebuked Iran for not fully cooperating. By September 2005, the Board found Iran in non-compliance with its safeguards (a formal trigger for UN Security Council involvement). Iran reacted by ceasing voluntary implementation of the Additional Protocol and restarting enrichment work. In April 2006, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that Iran had enriched uranium to 3.5% U-235, low enriched uranium suitable for nuclear fuel, using a cascade of 164 centrifuges at Natanz. This marked Iran's first public entry into the nuclear fuel-cycle capability club.[22]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_program_of_Iran
This culminated in the US withdrawal of the treaty after Israeli intelligence uncovered further evidence of Iran breaking the treaty conditions.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#114Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not completely unrelated. Both were likely entered to distract from the same news story dogging him every 24hr cycle.
No, the attack on Iran was simply instigated by Israel, which has been trying to push the US in a war with Iran since at least 20 years. Trump has a long history of doing what Israel wants- it's him who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem (which was illegally annexed by Israel), tore up the nuclear agreement with Iran, sanctioned the ICC, sponsored accords to get Arab states to accept the occupation of Palestine, and j…
Stop taking away responsibility for US actions. As you say Israel has asked US for a war with Iran everyday for 20 years and US has said no everytime. Now they said yes. So clearly US was able to say no and the choice to say yes was theirs.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#115Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not that the administration is trustworthy, but they recently announced that the structural floor is ~70M barrels. Which is significantly lower than other public estimates. Which strikes me as an attempt to ease the market that there is significantly more breathing room.
That seems a bit optimistic to me. I'm no expert, but a relevant and recent examination of the physical SPR facilities (published just last month) is available at https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-26-106918.pdf
[deleted]
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#116Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, the attack on Iran was simply instigated by Israel, which has been trying to push the US in a war with Iran since at least 20 years. Trump has a long history of doing what Israel wants- it's him who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem (which was illegally annexed by Israel), tore up the nuclear agreement with Iran, sanctioned the ICC, sponsored accords to get Arab states to accept the occupation of Palestine, and j…
Stop taking away responsibility for US actions. As you say Israel has asked US for a war with Iran everyday for 20 years and US has said no everytime. Now they said yes. So clearly US was able to say no and the choice to say yes was theirs.
Of course the US are entirely responsible for their actions. They're doubly responsible because not only they engaged in a reckless and illegal war, but also because they did it out of subservience to another country. The US politicians who promptly pledge their loyalty to Israel every time they're asked to (i.e. almost all of them), they are fully responsible.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#117Earlier quoted context omitted.
No, the attack on Iran was simply instigated by Israel, which has been trying to push the US in a war with Iran since at least 20 years. Trump has a long history of doing what Israel wants- it's him who moved the US embassy to Jerusalem (which was illegally annexed by Israel), tore up the nuclear agreement with Iran, sanctioned the ICC, sponsored accords to get Arab states to accept the occupation of Palestine, and j…
I disagree with the current Iran action, however we can't just say that Iran has been forthcoming and compliant with their agreements. >During the 1990s and early 2000s, Iran developed several undeclared sites, which were identified by international observers in 2002 and 2009. Following the collapse of negotiations with the EU-3 in 2005, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors found Iran in n…
Considering Israel has a illegal nuclear program, why should we hold Iran to a higher standard?
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#118Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't this the reason why they specifically targeted Venezuela, to get their oil?
Venezuela and Iran are strategic targets to control China's supply of crude oil. That's pretty much it. USA can produce all the oil/energy it needs for itself. Everything else is about controlling the energy supply to adversaries.
But it is a free market. If prices in the international market are at 2x the prices in the domestic market, nobody would sell oil in the domestic markets. The US would have to introduce export controls.
But can the US do it? No, because it lacks refining capability for a lot of the kind of oil it produces and retrofitting existing refineries is a multi-year, very expensive project.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#119But in reality this won’t happen, because China won’t be happy and will force Iran to a deal like last time or they will lose all the parts and intelligence tech they are providing to them.
Can't Iran be selective and only allow Chinese ships through?
It has been doing it for some time. Not full flows, but a significant number of ships have passed with a chinese destination.
Probably that was the reason the US also instituted a blockage, but I don't think the US navy would shoot a chinese flagged super tanker.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#120Earlier quoted context omitted.
The USA could block Chinese ships. Or maybe disable the loading jetties.
Ah yes, open war with a superpower. Why haven’t the USA done that already? It’s so obvious!
Sometimes I think that's Trump endgame. Destroy world's economy, solve debt with massive dollar de-valuation, and uses its resource advantages to reindustrialize itself.
Of course, that would fuck most of the world population, including the American Poor and The Middle Class.
But I don't think this would weight too much on Trump's conscience.