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Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
91–100 of 136 posts
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#92An interesting fact to consider is that the US stockpile (the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) is reported as the total of sour (high sulfur) and sweet (low sulfur) crude oil. The sweet stock makes up about 1/3 of the reserve and hardly varies at all. This is because US refineries are virtually all configured for sour crude: due to a mistaken belief in the 1990s that sweet crude was running out, the industry bet the farm…
> would be sometime around October/November, right in the middle of harvest season Right in the middle of election season.
Right in the middle of "election" season. FTFY.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#93Maybe I missed it looking over the paper, or maybe they are implicit, but are you taking into account Saudi Arabia’s East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (Petroline) , I believe it does about ~7m bpd and Habshan-Fujairah (Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline / ADCOP) about ~1.5m bpd? If not you might be underestimating things, though they do take a bit of a warmup to get into capacity, and can't match completely Hormuz's flow.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#94This is really interesting. Investment firms could incorporate this kind of simulation into their products.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#95[dead]
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#96Earlier quoted context omitted.
We are talking about this, because we're discussing a model of oil price vs availability which includes modeling of national oil reserves. I'm pointing out that the popularly understood amount of US reserve levels somewhat overestimates the available cushion, and provided two different and easily verifiable reasons for considering it to be smaller than the headline number. I also specified that I was oversimplifying…
What you also provided was conjecture based on… oh right you didn’t provide what it’s based on. Citation needed. What I meant with nobody talking about it was that outside of your post your bullet points aren’t being brought up in any reliable sources.
Grok, please check if this comment is right
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
Isn't this the reason why they specifically targeted Venezuela, to get their oil?
No, the two interventions are unrelated. Every indication is that they thought Iran would be a quick war with minimal impact on oil markets. Even if they did think the Strait of Hormuz would be closed for a long time, controlling Venezuela's oil does not help — it takes much longer than two months for Venezuela to meaningfully increase oil production. (And oil is ~fungible, so it doesn't really matter if the US is in…
Not completely unrelated. Both were likely entered to distract from the same news story dogging him every 24hr cycle.
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#98btw this website tracks actual ships passing though (vs not)
click on YTD for the shock of what's coming by the end of this year
100+ per day vs 5-10 per day, you can see the tiny cease-fire and when it ended
* https://en.macromicro.me/charts/94482/imf-strait-of-hormuz-n...
* https://i.imgur.com/fDmbaPa.png
oh and Strategic Oil Reserve is about to bottom out to the point where any lower brings permanent damage, imagine this going on through 2029 because you cannot "bomb your way to peace"
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#99How much of the paper was written with AI?
Re: Show HN: I simulated closing the Strait of Hormuz on real oil trade data
#100Earlier quoted context omitted.
As the parent comment explains, the US can't produce all the oil it needs, because it's refinery capacity isn't aligned with the type of oil it pumps from the ground.
It can be if necessary. It’s just the US refineries can deal with the crappy oil produced by places like the tar sands in Canada, where few other countries currently can
The Venezuelan oil is essentially the same, and Canadian bitumen is much cheaper on the world market to account for this.