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SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

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Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#251

Post by infecto »

bobro wrote: post #249
infecto wrote: post #246

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The world is filled with shades of gray. Some folks like yourself take what I consider a very passionate view on these topics. I take a bit more nuanced view. I don’t like Elon, I would never invest in his companies at the current valuation but I also recognize he has built successful businesses, does a great job at financial engineering and overall is generally a really could hype man for this companies. All those t…

I'd strongly recommend you read back what I've said and what you've said. The idea that I've presented anything "very passionate" while you've just been "nuanced" is a little silly. Read it. Please.

The only thing silly is how rude you are. Sorry.

You asked how the ideas fit together. I explained. Now you’re telling me they must be inconsistent without identifying the contradiction. I typically don’t deal in feelings in these types of topics but I am aware this is a very passionate topic and person for many. That’s just not me. Good luck with your efforts.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#252

Post by ryandvm »

infecto wrote: post #244
ryandvm wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Are you telling me that you believe the nobody at SpaceX has run the numbers and shown the richest person in the world that according to the known laws of physics each data center will have to have MANY ACRES of radiator? Fuck, even Grok would have told him this. The SpaceX IPO was intentional deception - no doubt.

I realize you are passionate about this topic and maybe I am just not in that same bucket. I could take it or leave it. The valuation is absurd, the TAM is wild and I have no faith in the underlying business being able to grow that fast. Forward looking statements are rarely a scam no matter how silly they sound. You may be passionate enough to say intentional deception no doubt. I would argue I am happy to let the m…

I apologize for mistaking your 17+ comments in here for passion.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#253

Post by rtkwe »

Lerc wrote: post #234
rtkwe wrote: post #226

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Part of the reason for the long window before inclusion is so that the price is reasonably stable and the market has had a chance to do it's whole price discovery dance for a little while before index funds etc are forced to buy in. Part of Musks goal with lobbying for early inclusion was to prop up the price by requiring the index funds to buy and hold his stock which gives a larger market for the insiders to sell i…

That makes more sense. Over what period do the index funds have to meet the levels? It seems like any coordinated change caused by modifying the structure of an index would cause quite volatile behaviour unless it had specific mitigation mechanisms built in.

Part of it is the index percentage is tuned to the available shares so it didn't create an apocalyptic buying pressure. Plus he only got the Nasdaq to modify their rules which also tamped down the pop.

As for timing there's no universal answer, stock changes are usually announced a few trading days before it's effective so funds can use that time to perform their rebalances. I presume most of the funds that needed to start tracking SPCX started buying pretty early so they were properly balanced on the day it took effect it might have even been part of the initial pop though they could have also waited for the first tranches of insider shares that were released (I think there were some relatively early releases as part of the IPO?).

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#254

Post by lorecore »

labcomputer wrote: post #221
lorecore wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

“Good at raising money” = scam. The valuation is based of fraudulent promises, just like Musk’s other scam, TSLA.

> just like Musk’s other scam, TSLA Just so we're clear: You think that the only company selling EVs in the USA for a net profit is a scam? What do you call Rivian, Lucid, Fisker, Bolinger, Lordstown, Slate, and Aptera? Slate has been conspicuously silent about orders since the day after launch. Lucid is on the brink of bankruptcy. Fisker has gone bankrupt... twice. Lordstown no longer exists (with assets purchased f…

A CEO making knowingly false forward looking statements is fraud, and it’s illegal.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#255

Post by Zigurd »

samothrace wrote: post #192
Octoth0rpe wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> SpaceX is an AI company without a frontier model. Unless they manage to build such a model, then their plan looks like they intend to be an AI _infrastructure_ company. Which is probably viable and healthy business! One with lots of competition and low margins that is completely misaligned with their current valuation.

Isn't it a little absurd to be guessing what the business model might be or should be for the company with the largest ever IPO, which got a free pass on (lack of) profitability? It's a little late.

Just say it with a South African eurotrash accent and it will all makes sense.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#256

Post by lorecore »

labcomputer wrote: post #222
lorecore wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk literally said SpaceX would be worth more than all of planet earth. That’s fraud.

Forward-looking statements (even unrealistic ones) are not fraud. If that's your standard for fraud, then literally every public company is a fraud.

Yes, making knowingly false forward looking statements is fraud.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#257

Post by lorecore »

infecto wrote: post #220
lorecore wrote: post #214

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Musk literally said SpaceX would be worth more than all of planet earth. That’s fraud.

You’re moving the goal post in your argument. First it’s being good at raising money is a scam. Now you are pointing out his incredibly foolish claims. No disagreement, it’s an absurd statement. I don’t know if it classifies as fraud.

I’m not moving the goalposts. I said: “The valuation is based of fraudulent promises, just like Musk’s other scam, TSLA.” and that’s 100% factual.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#258

Post by gwerbin »

oblio wrote: post #213
gwerbin wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Aramark is a horrible company for comparison. Maybe the only thing they have in common with SpaceX is that they are publicly traded companies. I'm not saying that SpaceX is a good investment or that Musk isn't trying to run a scam on index investors. But we also shouldn't be surprised that the financials of an incompetent commercial food service provider are a little different from those of a spaceflight company / da…

LOL. I'm not American, I chose Aramark at random because... ... Aramark has the same revenue as SpaceX: https://companiesmarketcap.com/largest-companies-by-revenue/... You've just told me that "the financials of an incompetent commercial food service provider" are better than those of SpaceX. Aramark is profitable and SpaceX is wildly unprofitable[1] :-))) * * * [1] Almost nothing SpaceX does points at SpaceX scaling…

Lol I meant "incumbent", that was a STT typo. But yes I get the point. My own point is that even a good-faith honest IPO for a spaceflight company probably won't look anything like Aramark. It's always going to be a bet on technology, not a share in the predictable profit stream of a boring company that serves pizza in school cafeterias.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#259

Post by Zigurd »

indoordin0saur wrote: post #147
Octoth0rpe wrote: post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> SpaceX is an AI company without a frontier model. Unless they manage to build such a model, then their plan looks like they intend to be an AI _infrastructure_ company. Which is probably viable and healthy business! One with lots of competition and low margins that is completely misaligned with their current valuation.

All these bans on building data centers on Earth are starting to make this wild proposition seem a little more rational.

Space data centers are so absurd they are the most Elizabeth Holmes Theranos part of SpaceX. IOW this is the part of the story where everyone with a jot of sense can't be fooled, and all your left with are the willingly hornswoggled.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#260

Post by Zigurd »

Octoth0rpe wrote: post #179
indoordin0saur wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

All these bans on building data centers on Earth are starting to make this wild proposition seem a little more rational.

Only a little, not a lot. It seems like the easy answer is still terrestrial with a heck of a lot more giving back. For example: - offering to pay some nominal subsidy for all households electricity bills in the region. - committing to only closed loop cooling - if the location is amenable, then providing free heating to neighboring buildings. - only building in blighted locations with no current economic value Other…

Microsoft IIRC sank a small server farm into the ocean and found that it worked pretty well. Surely there is fiber alongside the electrical cable from offshore windmills, so that's not a totally crazy idea, but it's never going to happen with SpaceX because Elon still craves Trump's approval, and Trump is anti-windmill.
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