Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

latimes.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

241–250 of 302 posts

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#241

Post by Beijinger »

labcomputer wrote: post #223
Beijinger wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"SpaceX is completely globally dominant in its industries (launch technology and orbital telecom)" 1. Have you seen what the Chinese have come up with? https://x.com/pronounced_kyle/status/2075526710003413004 2. None of these things are, where the money is supposed to come from in the future: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IHD8BDFYyGI I don't know the future, nor do I give investing advise. I don't want this stock.

I don't understand what kind of media someone has to consume to not understand that SpaceX does completely globally dominate launch services. Like, it's not even close. I have no opinion on whether other companies might catch up to them (either tomorrow or 10 years from now), but your quote is a completely accurate statement about the world as it exists today .

Launch service makes billions in losses and the Chinese have now the same technology. The only cash cow they have is Starlink.

If you read the IPO prospectus, none of theses things is were the money is supposed to be earned in the future. The money comes from the 3rd pillar, AI. Again AI is the biggest loss maker they have.

I would not invest in their launch services, nor in their AI. But I would invest in StarLink if they spun it off and if it were decently priced.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#242

Post by panick21_ »

blueone wrote: post #49
vladmk wrote: post #11

I’m really tempted to buy a chunk right now lol

Me too, and not for any rational reason or because I value my money or my investing strategies, but simply because I have a high risk tolerance, and it seems like these days that’s all you need to make money. No real skill, no real research. Just ride the hype train, shrug if you lose, and never gloat when you win. Simply take the profit, stfu, and buy a Porsche or some RAM.

> or some RAM.

Look at Mr. Billionaire right here.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#243

Post by HDThoreaun »

robot_jesus wrote: post #136
rob74 wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it is an obvious scam, but as far as I understood, it was a scam that was guaranteed to succeed: SpaceX is listed on Nasdaq and added to the Nasdaq index after only two weeks thanks to the rules Nasdaq changed at SpaceX's behest, so all funds that track Nasdaq have to buy SpaceX shares, so the prices were going to explode automatically because they made sure there will not be enough shares available. What went w…

There's a lot to unpack here, but a few thoughts. SpaceX wasn't added to the Nasdaq until two days ago, which is right around the time the stock was reaching it's current lows. Doesn't make sense to say that they prices exploded because of that. Second, I don't know the details but it's extremely unlikely that most SpaceX folks have been able to sell any shares. Typically there's a 90–180 restricted window where pre-…

All the investors knew that nasdaq and trackers would have to buy spacex and that number of shares traded is extremely limited. They might have bought earlier and planned to sell when the index crunch started?

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#244

Post by infecto »

ryandvm wrote: post #236
infecto wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you're collapsing a few different concepts together. Calling something a scam implied intentional deception about the underlying business. I don't think that's the same as selling an extremely optimistic vision at a valuation I personally think is unjustifiable. Plenty of companies have traded at prices that assumed almost everythign would go right. Most of those expectations eventually proved wrong but that…

Are you telling me that you believe the nobody at SpaceX has run the numbers and shown the richest person in the world that according to the known laws of physics each data center will have to have MANY ACRES of radiator? Fuck, even Grok would have told him this. The SpaceX IPO was intentional deception - no doubt.

I realize you are passionate about this topic and maybe I am just not in that same bucket. I could take it or leave it. The valuation is absurd, the TAM is wild and I have no faith in the underlying business being able to grow that fast. Forward looking statements are rarely a scam no matter how silly they sound.

You may be passionate enough to say intentional deception no doubt. I would argue I am happy to let the market figure it out. It may take a while but eventually over a long enough horizon it should figure it out.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#245

Post by wyre »

ahtihn wrote: post #237
wyre wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

SPCX has 555 million shares, thats $180,000 for a share for this 100 trillion market cap. Don't be ridiculous.

Completely irrelevant to my point. The point was just this: you don't need $100 trillion to actually exist for that market cap to be possible.

Sure, your point is factual, but it is unrealistic, which does make your point irrelevant.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#246

Post by infecto »

bobro wrote: post #239
infecto wrote: post #105

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They're perfectly consistent. An absured valuation isn't evidence of fraud. Exceptional capital formation isn't fraud either. You're conflating overpriced, good at raising money and scam as if they're synonyms. I am curious how the absurd bank price targets will play out in the long-term and if there will be any repercussions but its hard to immediately jump to scam but I realize this is the favorite fan-fic for folk…

Obviously it’s not “perfectly consistent”. There is at least a bit of incongruity in these three, no? A sniff of something off? Also, I’m not conflating anything. I asked you to say more on a couple of things you said in your comment. No need to be absolutist or argumentative about it.

The world is filled with shades of gray. Some folks like yourself take what I consider a very passionate view on these topics. I take a bit more nuanced view. I don’t like Elon, I would never invest in his companies at the current valuation but I also recognize he has built successful businesses, does a great job at financial engineering and overall is generally a really could hype man for this companies. All those things can be true at the same time. I think when folks become too passionate on either side it ruins the argument, I look at how you generally take a rude/attacking stance when all I am saying is I don’t think it’s a scam outright but I find the valuation to be silly.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#247

Post by infecto »

0x3f wrote: post #124
infecto wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I myself could never invest at those multiples. I think they absolutely have governance problems but at the same time I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. Investors who do have conviction here most likely see this as the platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline. Again I could not buy…

I guess it depends on the framing: a scam perpetrated on whom? It's not a scam on active investors if you lock in a bump from guaranteed passive investors. The active investors will see gains from that bump. But on the passive investors? On wider society? If you spot the regulator looking the other way and try to sneak one past, is that legitimate, or sketchy? What if you recently had the influence to make them look…

I mean sure some indexes will include the name eventually but I would hope most “passive investors” are not investing in the Nasdaq 100. Folks have latched on to this like it’s the greatest fraud of all time. It’s not showing up in most normal passive portfolios anytime soon.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#248

Post by infecto »

insane_dreamer wrote: post #235
infecto wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I myself could never invest at those multiples. I think they absolutely have governance problems but at the same time I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. Investors who do have conviction here most likely see this as the platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline. Again I could not buy…

> I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. so was Madoff

But that was a ponzi. The numbers here are public. You can make forward looking statements. I could never underwrite that valuation but others have. Who knows will be correct but over the long horizon the market will figure it out.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#249

Post by bobro »

infecto wrote: post #246
bobro wrote: post #239

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Obviously it’s not “perfectly consistent”. There is at least a bit of incongruity in these three, no? A sniff of something off? Also, I’m not conflating anything. I asked you to say more on a couple of things you said in your comment. No need to be absolutist or argumentative about it.

The world is filled with shades of gray. Some folks like yourself take what I consider a very passionate view on these topics. I take a bit more nuanced view. I don’t like Elon, I would never invest in his companies at the current valuation but I also recognize he has built successful businesses, does a great job at financial engineering and overall is generally a really could hype man for this companies. All those t…

I'd strongly recommend you read back what I've said and what you've said. The idea that I've presented anything "very passionate" while you've just been "nuanced" is a little silly. Read it. Please.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#250

Post by [deleted] »

ncallaway wrote: post #164
ToValueFunfetti wrote: post #82

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is shaped like more-or-less every IPO I've seen. I think you have to wait for more of a collapse to claim dispositive evidence of a scam (or widen your claim to 'almost all IPOs are scams').

Many IPOs slide below their initial offering. Very few IPOs changed the rules to allow themselves to be incuded in significant indexes far faster than the rules previously allowed, and then slipped below their initial offering.

[deleted]
Post reply on HN