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SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

latimes.com

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Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#121

Post by rob74 »

ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

Yes, it is an obvious scam, but as far as I understood, it was a scam that was guaranteed to succeed: SpaceX is listed on Nasdaq and added to the Nasdaq index after only two weeks thanks to the rules Nasdaq changed at SpaceX's behest, so all funds that track Nasdaq have to buy SpaceX shares, so the prices were going to explode automatically because they made sure there will not be enough shares available. What went wrong? Are SpaceX employees dumping their shares so fast that supply outstrips demand?

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#122

Post by tencentshill »

petilon wrote: post #70

SpaceX, despite its name is an AI company, supposedly. Its S-1 states that the company estimates its total addressable market (TAM) at $28.5 trillion, of which $26.5 trillion, or 92.98%, is expected to come from AI. SpaceX is an AI company without a frontier model. Until Jan 2026 SpaceX was an aerospace company. Then xAI was merged into SpaceX on January 30, 2026, so SpaceX became an AI company less than 6 months ago…

The SpaceX subsidiary SpaceXAI (formerly xAI) is X (Formerly Twitter) and xAI. Things move fast in the trillion dollar valuation world.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#123

Post by oblio »

infecto wrote: post #105
bobro wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you spell out a bit more how these three thoughts live together consistently for you: 1) The price is insane 2) The price is a work of great financial engineering 3) The price isn’t a scam

They're perfectly consistent. An absured valuation isn't evidence of fraud. Exceptional capital formation isn't fraud either. You're conflating overpriced, good at raising money and scam as if they're synonyms. I am curious how the absurd bank price targets will play out in the long-term and if there will be any repercussions but its hard to immediately jump to scam but I realize this is the favorite fan-fic for folk…

What about Musk gutting government agencies (including the SEC) through DOGE?

Or Musk pushing NASDAQ & co to fast track SpaceX into their indexes, to force institutional investors to buy SpaceX?

Or about Musk & others weakening analyst protection through the current US administration cutting legal failsafes so that now basically every analyst on the market never releases negative share projections?

At which point do we accept that these billionaires push these systems until they crack, "legally", because they buy the people making the laws.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#124

Post by 0x3f »

infecto wrote: post #60
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I myself could never invest at those multiples. I think they absolutely have governance problems but at the same time I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. Investors who do have conviction here most likely see this as the platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline. Again I could not buy…

I guess it depends on the framing: a scam perpetrated on whom? It's not a scam on active investors if you lock in a bump from guaranteed passive investors. The active investors will see gains from that bump. But on the passive investors? On wider society?

If you spot the regulator looking the other way and try to sneak one past, is that legitimate, or sketchy? What if you recently had the influence to make them look the other way or be under-resourced?

You could argue 'treason' is a better word than 'scam'.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#125

Post by dboreham »

abtinf wrote: post #103

I’m way out of my depth in suggesting this idea, so forgive me if I’m committing a conceptual “divide by zero” and it’s not even wrong: It seems like the SpaceX IPO really breaks the traditional notion of market cap. Market cap has an unstated assumption that most of a company’s stock could, in theory, be traded unencumbered. Thus shares * price gives a very rough view of the value of the company. Everyone understand…

Different classes of shares are possible, as are other time-varying schemes such as warrants. But that's not what Musk did. The shares all have the same class.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#126

Post by infecto »

jagged-chisel wrote: post #93
infecto wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I myself could never invest at those multiples. I think they absolutely have governance problems but at the same time I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. Investors who do have conviction here most likely see this as the platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline. Again I could not buy…

> I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I was hoping you were headed to "...beyond scam" into serious fraud or something. Regardless how this is categorized, everyone (banks, stock market, the executive branch) is complicit, and I think SpaceX stock should have stayed off the public market.

Luckily neither you or I get to make that decision.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#127

Post by bartek_gdn »

rob74 wrote: post #121
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

Yes, it is an obvious scam, but as far as I understood, it was a scam that was guaranteed to succeed: SpaceX is listed on Nasdaq and added to the Nasdaq index after only two weeks thanks to the rules Nasdaq changed at SpaceX's behest, so all funds that track Nasdaq have to buy SpaceX shares, so the prices were going to explode automatically because they made sure there will not be enough shares available. What went w…

Priced in before the event then?

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#128

Post by indoordin0saur »

bobro wrote: post #86
infecto wrote: post #60

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I myself could never invest at those multiples. I think they absolutely have governance problems but at the same time I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. Investors who do have conviction here most likely see this as the platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline. Again I could not buy…

Can you spell out a bit more how these three thoughts live together consistently for you: 1) The price is insane 2) The price is a work of great financial engineering 3) The price isn’t a scam

It's a scam only if you think the stock market in general is a scam. Remember, SpaceX is completely globally dominant in its industries (launch technology and orbital telecom)

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#129

Post by sailfast »

CrimsonRain wrote: post #90
epistasis wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What you describe is exactly a scam: he somehow convinced you that he's not motivated by wealth! That alone is clearly a scam, the idea that Musk is not motivated by huge amounts of wealth and high valuations is just implausible considering g his behavior at every single turn.

What is he doing with all that wealth? Taking lavish vacations? Buying luxurious yacht? Buying islands and making bunkers?

I would much prefer Mr. Musk found a nice hobby like yachts or race horses instead of buying communication platforms, bulldozing regulations, and bribing officials with PAC money.

That said, he needs the wealth to keep the whole machine from falling over. One element might be stable but the rest is overstretched and about to go bankrupt at any minute. He is doing this to get back control of Tesla while also investing in AI and not exploding.

He is running forward falling and his wealth legs need to keep up or it all goes down hard (and takes a bunch of bagholders with)

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