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SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

latimes.com

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Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#81

Post by epistasis »

chasd00 wrote: post #73
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

Not a scam IMO, I don’t think musk is that motivated by wealth but im sure plenty of the heavy hitter investors are. I’m sure he didn’t complain about the valuation however. I think SpaceX is a solid well run company (praise be to Gwen Shotwel) but $1T is a bit much. I’ll eventually buy in when things settle down and we have a few quarters of financial data to work with.

What you describe is exactly a scam: he somehow convinced you that he's not motivated by wealth! That alone is clearly a scam, the idea that Musk is not motivated by huge amounts of wealth and high valuations is just implausible considering g his behavior at every single turn.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#82

Post by ToValueFunfetti »

ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

This is shaped like more-or-less every IPO I've seen. I think you have to wait for more of a collapse to claim dispositive evidence of a scam (or widen your claim to 'almost all IPOs are scams').

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#83

Post by marcusverus »

vladmk wrote: post #11

I’m really tempted to buy a chunk right now lol

Do yourself a favor and DCA in from here. SpaceX was "only" valued at 210 Billion back in June 2024, around 11% of its current valuation. A return to that valuation would take it down to ~$16/share!

SpaceX is a phenomenal company. I've wanted to buy in since 2009. But the stock is the exact inverse of my ideal single-stock investment thesis--huge downside with severely limited short-to-mid-term upside, given the huge premium already being paid.

Maybe take a look at Rocket Lab :)

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#85

Post by jmyeet »

simonpure wrote: post #44

I always wonder why not more companies are using more creative approaches like Google's Dutch auction to set their IPO price. It seems direct listings gained some popularity but overall most companies seem to rely on the traditional underwriter model. According to [0] - > 22 companies went public on major exchanges using IPO auctions in the U.S. between 1999-2008, but there have been none since then, as of May 2025.…

Google's process produced a price of IIRC $85/share and on first-day trading soared to >$100 so there was a lot of discussion at the time about how efficient that process was.

But really that's how all IPOs work, basically. You have one of more investment banks that underwrite the offering. They're basically guaranteeing to sell a certain number of shares to their clients at a given price. Those clients can be institutional investors, pension funds, high net worth individuals and so on. But there's a feedback loop here where clients might push back on a certain price.

IPOs love these sorts of investors because they tend to buy and not sell. If everyone sells the IPO will flop. Retail investors are far less "loyal".

The IPOing company also has levers where they can manipulate the price, most notably on the supply side ie by limiting or expanding the size of the float. SpaceX's float (as a percentage of the company) was actually really small.

What's unique about the SpaceX IPO was that it would immediately become one of the world's most valuable listed companies so there'd be a lot of induced demand from index funds. The underhanded (IMHO) aspect to all this was that the rules were deliberately changed so passive investors would be exposed almost immediately rather than first allowing some form of price discovery by the market. NASDAQ capitualted. S&P did not.

I guess the real manipulation here is the fiction that SpaceX is an AI company, which ultimately goes back to a series of bailouts for terrible decisions going back to the Twitter purchase. SpaceX's AI pitch was orbital data centers, which make no sense, and using their ill-gotten NVidia chip allocations to rent them to Google.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#86

Post by bobro »

infecto wrote: post #60
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I myself could never invest at those multiples. I think they absolutely have governance problems but at the same time I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. Investors who do have conviction here most likely see this as the platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline. Again I could not buy…

Can you spell out a bit more how these three thoughts live together consistently for you:

1) The price is insane

2) The price is a work of great financial engineering

3) The price isn’t a scam

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#87

Post by throw0101d »

intrasight wrote: post #6
throw0101d wrote: post #2

IPOs are generally not a good investment, at least not relative to average market return: > However, a year later, we see that the majority of companies are either outperforming or underperforming the market by more than 10%. We also see that more companies are underperforming than beating the index (the red bars stretch below the 50% line). > That seems to indicate that for some companies, the initial IPO enthusiasm…

Many IPO's have the same trajectory that SpaceX did - first going up steeply and then dropping steeply. So there's certainly money to be made if you get the timing right but that is always the challenge.

Worth considering that "trading" and "investing" are different words. :)

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#89

Post by smallmancontrov »

mothballed wrote: post #33
infecto wrote: post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is to be expected with any high profile IPO.

No this was anomalous for an IPO. People were limited to something like 10 shares that they had to pre-order like they were special order trading cards with an order cap as direct recipients of the initial shares. Usually the public starts buying IPOs in open market operations on the secondary market, which removes some of the shiny and "limited" factor.

IPOs are designed to achieve a 20% pump, generally do achieve it, and did achieve it in the case of SPCX. Buying shares at the base of the pump that you are allowed to sell at +20% is a license to cash in. Why would anyone sell you those shares at that price, then? They are paying you to cultivate the "rare pokemon card" atmosphere that gets the less sophisticated investors excited and willing to buy the top. A dollar spent selling below-market shares to a promoter returns many dollars of exit liquidity. This is how investment banks make their IPO money and it's how social media promoters make their money. The promoters aren't the ones being fleeced. There are people who think they are promoters but are actually suckers -- but that's a separate matter. The price always tells the true story.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#90

Post by CrimsonRain »

epistasis wrote: post #81
chasd00 wrote: post #73

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not a scam IMO, I don’t think musk is that motivated by wealth but im sure plenty of the heavy hitter investors are. I’m sure he didn’t complain about the valuation however. I think SpaceX is a solid well run company (praise be to Gwen Shotwel) but $1T is a bit much. I’ll eventually buy in when things settle down and we have a few quarters of financial data to work with.

What you describe is exactly a scam: he somehow convinced you that he's not motivated by wealth! That alone is clearly a scam, the idea that Musk is not motivated by huge amounts of wealth and high valuations is just implausible considering g his behavior at every single turn.

What is he doing with all that wealth? Taking lavish vacations? Buying luxurious yacht? Buying islands and making bunkers?
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