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SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

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Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#231

Post by k4rli »

infecto wrote: post #60
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I myself could never invest at those multiples. I think they absolutely have governance problems but at the same time I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. Investors who do have conviction here most likely see this as the platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline. Again I could not buy…

Almost all of their promises since start have just been corporate puffery and pure vaporware. Going to Mars, point-to-point Earth travel, Starship, reusable rockets...

Same with all his other companies.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#232

Post by Lerc »

nixon_why69 wrote: post #225
Lerc wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't follow that logic, why does wanting something sooner imply higher expectations of results? Did musk explicitly claim he expected exceptional returns? I don't think I'd be surprised either way, but I'm not sure what he's actually said.

If SpaceX followed the existing rules for index inclusion, after a year and profitable, nobody would have a problem. They managed to maneuver "immediately and with no profit" and now they're tanking. That's bad, all of us with a 401k are losing money because of it. The people pointing this out are not the problem, SpaceX's (or I should say xAI's performance) is the problem.

I'm inclined to think that it would have been better that they followed the existing rules for inclusion, but I don't see how this is a cause of performance or an expression of performance.

I understand that investments made during the short lived peak would have lost money and that some amount of 401k will have lost money, but only for the purchases of indexes made during the peak, that may be substantial however, I'm not sure how transitions that add or remove stocks from an index work, there must be some mechanism to soften the impacts of the change, but I'm not an expert in that field.

Is it your contention that if they had have followed the standard path for inclusion, and then went on to have a similar share performance, then you would be OK with it?

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#233

Post by CrimsonRain »

maxerickson wrote: post #67
skywal_l wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it possible that people who don't care about short term profitability but still want a strategic ownership of the company bought at a high price on IPO day and now that the day traders are in, speculation will readjust the price to short term values? The change of price just reflect the different buyer profiles. SpaceX is a pretty important company not just for "the market" but also for many other things (see Russ…

What is your idea of strategic ownership? Musk has voting control, everyone else is along for the ride.

has it occurred to you some (from the amount of demand, a lot) people actually want to buy it because of that?

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#234

Post by Lerc »

rtkwe wrote: post #226
Lerc wrote: post #215

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't follow that logic, why does wanting something sooner imply higher expectations of results? Did musk explicitly claim he expected exceptional returns? I don't think I'd be surprised either way, but I'm not sure what he's actually said.

Part of the reason for the long window before inclusion is so that the price is reasonably stable and the market has had a chance to do it's whole price discovery dance for a little while before index funds etc are forced to buy in. Part of Musks goal with lobbying for early inclusion was to prop up the price by requiring the index funds to buy and hold his stock which gives a larger market for the insiders to sell i…

That makes more sense. Over what period do the index funds have to meet the levels? It seems like any coordinated change caused by modifying the structure of an index would cause quite volatile behaviour unless it had specific mitigation mechanisms built in.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#235

Post by insane_dreamer »

infecto wrote: post #60
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

I don’t think scam is the right word. The valuation and bank price targets are absolutely insane. I myself could never invest at those multiples. I think they absolutely have governance problems but at the same time I have to admit he is a great financial engineer. Investors who do have conviction here most likely see this as the platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline. Again I could not buy…

> I have to admit he is a great financial engineer.

so was Madoff

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#236

Post by ryandvm »

infecto wrote: post #100
epistasis wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm unclear why you don't think it's a scam, because "he is a great financial engineer" seems awfully close to admitting that and then the "platform vehicle for everything else coming through the pipeline" seems to be the clincher that it is indeed a scam. For example, he's talking about data centers in space as the "everything else coming through the pipeline" and space data centers are an obvious engineering boondo…

I think you're collapsing a few different concepts together. Calling something a scam implied intentional deception about the underlying business. I don't think that's the same as selling an extremely optimistic vision at a valuation I personally think is unjustifiable. Plenty of companies have traded at prices that assumed almost everythign would go right. Most of those expectations eventually proved wrong but that…

Are you telling me that you believe the nobody at SpaceX has run the numbers and shown the richest person in the world that according to the known laws of physics each data center will have to have MANY ACRES of radiator?

Fuck, even Grok would have told him this.

The SpaceX IPO was intentional deception - no doubt.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#237

Post by ahtihn »

wyre wrote: post #163
ahtihn wrote: post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Like spacex isn't going to be the world's first 100 trillion dollar company because there isn't that much money. That doesn't really matter. As we saw with crypto valuations, market cap is just number of shares * last price. If you have 1 trillion shares and one is traded for $100 you have a 100 trillion market cap.

SPCX has 555 million shares, thats $180,000 for a share for this 100 trillion market cap. Don't be ridiculous.

Completely irrelevant to my point.

The point was just this: you don't need $100 trillion to actually exist for that market cap to be possible.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#238

Post by 8note »

ToValueFunfetti wrote: post #82
ornornor wrote: post #41

“Shocking nobody” I would add… This is an obvious Musk scam and anyone with financial knowledge called it as such ever since it’s been on the table. Why else lobby and change the NASDAQ listing rules for instance?

This is shaped like more-or-less every IPO I've seen. I think you have to wait for more of a collapse to claim dispositive evidence of a scam (or widen your claim to 'almost all IPOs are scams').

the scam here is knowing that the price will be lower, but forcing index funds to buy high

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#239

Post by bobro »

infecto wrote: post #105
bobro wrote: post #86

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Can you spell out a bit more how these three thoughts live together consistently for you: 1) The price is insane 2) The price is a work of great financial engineering 3) The price isn’t a scam

They're perfectly consistent. An absured valuation isn't evidence of fraud. Exceptional capital formation isn't fraud either. You're conflating overpriced, good at raising money and scam as if they're synonyms. I am curious how the absurd bank price targets will play out in the long-term and if there will be any repercussions but its hard to immediately jump to scam but I realize this is the favorite fan-fic for folk…

Obviously it’s not “perfectly consistent”. There is at least a bit of incongruity in these three, no? A sniff of something off? Also, I’m not conflating anything. I asked you to say more on a couple of things you said in your comment. No need to be absolutist or argumentative about it.

Re: SpaceX stock erases all its gains and slides below IPO price in intraday trading

#240

Post by rchaud »

rtkwe wrote: post #218
ncallaway wrote: post #164

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Many IPOs slide below their initial offering. Very few IPOs changed the rules to allow themselves to be incuded in significant indexes far faster than the rules previously allowed, and then slipped below their initial offering.

Yeah that plus wrapping the xAI dogshit debt inside SpaceX is where it gets really scummy. At least the S&P500 didn't (yet) succumb and lower their requirements and that's where most of my investment money is parked.

not to mention hiding all the Twitter losses inside of xAI because AI in general loses lots of money.
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