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Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

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Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#71
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both Europe and US's emissions are significantly (18%-30%) below their peak (which was 20 years ago. The rest of the world is also moving towards renewables.

How much of that is just outsourcing much of our industry to Asia/etc.?

Asia is also moving towards renewables.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#72
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We _are_ doing something about this. We’re locating concentrated millions of years of trapped fossil energy and moving it into our atmosphere as fast as we possibly can. To a first approximation, that is the world economy. Or did you mean to do something differently?

We have to do less There has been a lot of debate over AC use. Everyone chiming in only discusses runtime energy use. The biggest issue is mining and manufacturing, and the moving of all the materials, parts, and such. Every AC has sheathed wires and circuit boards. Every airplane, car, phone, network router, refrigerator... same expansive mess creation. Gamers complaining about disc less games despite that problem p…

If you want less of something, tax it. Support consumption based taxes like the FairTax in the US which would tax new goods at a high rate while used goods would be tax free. This encourages keeping items for longer, repairing rather than replacing, and purchasing used goods over new ones.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#73
post #56
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Both Europe and US's emissions are significantly (18%-30%) below their peak (which was 20 years ago. The rest of the world is also moving towards renewables.

Global co2 emissions are at an all time high. Co2 parts per million are a stock, like the level of water in a bathtub. Annual emissions are a flow, like how strongly the water is flowing in. The tub is fuller than ever before AND filling at the fastest rate ever. The problem is that carbon energy is useful. So unless something globally beats almost all use cases then somewhere marginally it will be worth burning vs n…

It's a leaking bathtub. Half life of excess CO2 in the atmosphere is 30-100 years. So you need the water flowing in to continue to increase in rate (not just to continue flowing in), otherwise you reach a new equilibrium and the CO2 levels in the atmosphere stop increasing.

They do increase in rate as you said (for now).

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#74

This is the most important part most people don't get: > And what would 3 °C mean for Germany? > FB: In summer, meteorological records could reach up to 50 °C. Three degrees of global warming does not mean hot days will just be 3 or 4 degrees hotter. It could mean up to 10 degrees hotter. We would also face much longer droughts. 3°C warming implies summer days can get 10°C hotter. This is nightmare scenario.

> This is the most important part most people don't get

I wouldn't say "people don't get" it when it's not well-communicated. When the headline always says 2-3 degrees, of course people are going to shrug.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Despite all the pollution, 24% of Indians live below the lower-middle-income poverty line of $4.20 per day...

Yes, and? That's why nothing will happen. Developing countries like India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are continuing to expand their emissions as they industrialize. All are expected to have an GDP growth rate in the 6-8% range over the next decade, as will their peers across Asia, so the carbon footprint globally will only increase . Even China's emissions rate aren't decreasing - they're stagnant, which is a good shift…

[deleted]

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#76
post #8

If we don’t do something about this, I fear future generations will not view us in a positive light.

> If we don’t do something about this... We can't. We're too late. China (13 GT), the US (4.6 GT), and India (3 GT) alone represent 51% of global carbon emissions - and at least in India's case, it is growing at a rate of 5%. Throw in other large polluters like Russia (2 GT), Indonesia (0.8 GT), Iran (0.8 GT), KSA (0.6 GT), Brazil (0.5 GT), and Vietnam (0.5 GT) whose rate of carbon emissions is growing in the 5-10% r…

A lot if this industrialisation is actually factories making products that are outsourced manufacturing. So it doesn't really make sense to say its China, India's or Vietnam's fault, when most of the products are being shipped to the US and EU and are not necessarily local born companies.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#77
post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We _are_ doing something about this. We’re locating concentrated millions of years of trapped fossil energy and moving it into our atmosphere as fast as we possibly can. To a first approximation, that is the world economy. Or did you mean to do something differently?

We have to do less There has been a lot of debate over AC use. Everyone chiming in only discusses runtime energy use. The biggest issue is mining and manufacturing, and the moving of all the materials, parts, and such. Every AC has sheathed wires and circuit boards. Every airplane, car, phone, network router, refrigerator... same expansive mess creation. Gamers complaining about disc less games despite that problem p…

I totally agree with you that our unhinged consumption behavior is the core problem. And with AI we stepped on the accelerator again.

But regarding your second statement. The actual problem is the greenhouse effect of CO2 and Methane in the atmosphere which traps the suns energy in our atmosphere heating up oceans, ice and landmass. The heat we produce is negligible compared to the energy the sun sends every day. The greenhouse gases are the problem. And you are right, pulling away that blanket so that more heat can dissipate into space will take a looong time (growing trees) or cost an insane amount of (clean) energy, reversing the chemical processes of burning oil, gas and coal.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#78

Is the major issue here that 3 degrees Celsius is like an average so all the hot tropics places just become uninhabitable whereas temperature rises are more moderated in higher latitudes? Also how much faster and higher will that number go with all the data centers? Can't imagine it not just getting worse.

It’s sort of all over the place but it’s mostly the other way round. The poles might see like +5-8c. It’s also the overall temperature. Today’s high temperature where I am is 33 and the low is 25. 33 isn’t super unusual, maybe a dozen days a year. 25 as a low though is crazy high even on days historically above 30. It all averages out to +whatever. For temps by latitude/region this source seems ok on a quick search h…

// The poles might see like +5-8c.

Poland continues to experience significant cold related deaths and any warning might be welcomed.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#79
I wouldn't be too worried about it this century at least. if things look like they are going to get bad we will resort to geoengineering, and once we get a taste for it we will further optimize global temperatures to our liking.

perversely, global warming earlier than expected is a good thing [for us] as it will wipe away all meaningful opposition to geoengineering.

note how according to them having 50C days is a likely outcome. no one will tolerate this. sending the sulfur planes is assured at that point. you wouldn't even need to try and convince people with harvest yields.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We have to do less There has been a lot of debate over AC use. Everyone chiming in only discusses runtime energy use. The biggest issue is mining and manufacturing, and the moving of all the materials, parts, and such. Every AC has sheathed wires and circuit boards. Every airplane, car, phone, network router, refrigerator... same expansive mess creation. Gamers complaining about disc less games despite that problem p…

I totally agree with you that our unhinged consumption behavior is the core problem. And with AI we stepped on the accelerator again. But regarding your second statement. The actual problem is the greenhouse effect of CO2 and Methane in the atmosphere which traps the suns energy in our atmosphere heating up oceans, ice and landmass. The heat we produce is negligible compared to the energy the sun sends every day. The…

Right; I already covered that explaining the runtime energy use of tech is not the real issue. It's the endless production.
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