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Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

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11–20 of 209 posts

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#11
post #8

If we don’t do something about this, I fear future generations will not view us in a positive light.

We _are_ doing something about this. We’re locating concentrated millions of years of trapped fossil energy and moving it into our atmosphere as fast as we possibly can. To a first approximation, that is the world economy.

Or did you mean to do something differently?

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#12
post #8

If we don’t do something about this, I fear future generations will not view us in a positive light.

> If we don’t do something about this...

We can't. We're too late.

China (13 GT), the US (4.6 GT), and India (3 GT) alone represent 51% of global carbon emissions - and at least in India's case, it is growing at a rate of 5%.

Throw in other large polluters like Russia (2 GT), Indonesia (0.8 GT), Iran (0.8 GT), KSA (0.6 GT), Brazil (0.5 GT), and Vietnam (0.5 GT) whose rate of carbon emissions is growing in the 5-10% range and you see there is no path forward.

Any amount of de-carbonization that China or the collective West does is automatically negated by the other countries I listed. At best global carbon emissions stagnate - which by default is going to lead to a 2-3 °C increase in temperatures.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#13

Is the major issue here that 3 degrees Celsius is like an average so all the hot tropics places just become uninhabitable whereas temperature rises are more moderated in higher latitudes? Also how much faster and higher will that number go with all the data centers? Can't imagine it not just getting worse.

There's a lot of bad things that happen at 3C.

The first is that 3C represents a lot more energy in the atmosphere. That translates to more water evaporating from the oceans creating bigger more violent storms (think more frequent flash floods).

It changes the ocean currents which can be really bad. Right now Europe is warm for it's latitude because of a weakening current from the equator to the UK brings a lot of heat. If that completely collapses, Europe can enter an ICE age.

The rising temperature also ends up weakening the vortex of the north pole which mostly keeps the arctic temperatures sealed up north. As that vortex weakens, spills of crazy blizzards can hit unusual places pretty hard. The winter storm in 2021 is an example of that happening.

Then of course there's the potential melting of the ice caps which will release a lot of methane into the atmosphere (speeding up warming). That will ultimately cause sea levels to rise which won't be great for the state of Florida.

Mass migration, crop instability, more frequent and more extreme weather. It's just a combo of bad things that all come together at once.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#14
post #8

If we don’t do something about this, I fear future generations will not view us in a positive light.

I have already accepted that there is nothing plebs can do about climate change. I can try hard by using public transport, using less plastic, and using less air conditioning, but all of those efforts are rendered useless by rich people going on vacation in yachts or private planes. And if you talk about reducing meat consumption, Americans will go mad, lol.

Ordinary plebs trying to prevent climate change is like subtracting $100 from a billion dollars - it does not make any meaningful difference.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#15
post #8

If we don’t do something about this, I fear future generations will not view us in a positive light.

> If we don’t do something about this... We can't. We're too late. China (13 GT), the US (4.6 GT), and India (3 GT) alone represent 51% of global carbon emissions - and at least in India's case, it is growing at a rate of 5%. Throw in other large polluters like Russia (2 GT), Indonesia (0.8 GT), Iran (0.8 GT), KSA (0.6 GT), Brazil (0.5 GT), and Vietnam (0.5 GT) whose rate of carbon emissions is growing in the 5-10% r…

Despite all the pollution, 24% of Indians live below the lower-middle-income poverty line of $4.20 per day...

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#16

This is the most important part most people don't get: > And what would 3 °C mean for Germany? > FB: In summer, meteorological records could reach up to 50 °C. Three degrees of global warming does not mean hot days will just be 3 or 4 degrees hotter. It could mean up to 10 degrees hotter. We would also face much longer droughts. 3°C warming implies summer days can get 10°C hotter. This is nightmare scenario.

this also means thermal turbulence which means breakup of flow, and that means failure of distribution, leading to localized torrid spots, that translates to heat dome regions of more than 10°C hotter.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we don’t do something about this... We can't. We're too late. China (13 GT), the US (4.6 GT), and India (3 GT) alone represent 51% of global carbon emissions - and at least in India's case, it is growing at a rate of 5%. Throw in other large polluters like Russia (2 GT), Indonesia (0.8 GT), Iran (0.8 GT), KSA (0.6 GT), Brazil (0.5 GT), and Vietnam (0.5 GT) whose rate of carbon emissions is growing in the 5-10% r…

Despite all the pollution, 24% of Indians live below the lower-middle-income poverty line of $4.20 per day...

Yes, and?

That's why nothing will happen.

Developing countries like India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are continuing to expand their emissions as they industrialize. All are expected to have an GDP growth rate in the 6-8% range over the next decade, as will their peers across Asia, so the carbon footprint globally will only increase.

Even China's emissions rate aren't decreasing - they're stagnant, which is a good shift, but not enough to turn the tide given how large China's existing carbon footprint is.

Edit: can't reply

> but they're not going to expand by taking on coal and fossil fuels...

India [0], Vietnam [1], and other large industrializing nation in Asia have all doubled down on expanding coal usage over the last 6 months. And that's ignoring increased usage of NatGas and Oil.

[0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-will-use-more-...

[1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vietnam-looks-more-c...

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#18
post #8

If we don’t do something about this, I fear future generations will not view us in a positive light.

> If we don’t do something about this... We can't. We're too late. China (13 GT), the US (4.6 GT), and India (3 GT) alone represent 51% of global carbon emissions - and at least in India's case, it is growing at a rate of 5%. Throw in other large polluters like Russia (2 GT), Indonesia (0.8 GT), Iran (0.8 GT), KSA (0.6 GT), Brazil (0.5 GT), and Vietnam (0.5 GT) whose rate of carbon emissions is growing in the 5-10% r…

What is Western Europe's #?

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If we don’t do something about this... We can't. We're too late. China (13 GT), the US (4.6 GT), and India (3 GT) alone represent 51% of global carbon emissions - and at least in India's case, it is growing at a rate of 5%. Throw in other large polluters like Russia (2 GT), Indonesia (0.8 GT), Iran (0.8 GT), KSA (0.6 GT), Brazil (0.5 GT), and Vietnam (0.5 GT) whose rate of carbon emissions is growing in the 5-10% r…

What is Western Europe's #?

1.1 GT combined but shrinking yearly by 1-3%, which isn't enough to make up for the combined increase in carbon emissions from India, ASEAN, MENA, LatAm, and Russia.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#20
post #8

If we don’t do something about this, I fear future generations will not view us in a positive light.

I have already accepted that there is nothing plebs can do about climate change. I can try hard by using public transport, using less plastic, and using less air conditioning, but all of those efforts are rendered useless by rich people going on vacation in yachts or private planes. And if you talk about reducing meat consumption, Americans will go mad, lol. Ordinary plebs trying to prevent climate change is like sub…

But 800B dollars would matter. And you can vote.
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