Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

Is the major issue here that 3 degrees Celsius is like an average so all the hot tropics places just become uninhabitable whereas temperature rises are more moderated in higher latitudes?

Also how much faster and higher will that number go with all the data centers? Can't imagine it not just getting worse.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#5

Post by mitthrowaway2 » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 2:47 AM UTC

Madmallard wrote: post #4

Is the major issue here that 3 degrees Celsius is like an average so all the hot tropics places just become uninhabitable whereas temperature rises are more moderated in higher latitudes? Also how much faster and higher will that number go with all the data centers? Can't imagine it not just getting worse.

The most extreme warming happens at the poles, doesn't it? Plus increases in volatility on top of a rising baseline, so more extreme heat wave peaks even in temperate climates that don't change as much on average.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#6

Post by trescenzi » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 2:52 AM UTC

Madmallard wrote: post #4

Is the major issue here that 3 degrees Celsius is like an average so all the hot tropics places just become uninhabitable whereas temperature rises are more moderated in higher latitudes? Also how much faster and higher will that number go with all the data centers? Can't imagine it not just getting worse.

It’s sort of all over the place but it’s mostly the other way round. The poles might see like +5-8c. It’s also the overall temperature. Today’s high temperature where I am is 33 and the low is 25. 33 isn’t super unusual, maybe a dozen days a year. 25 as a low though is crazy high even on days historically above 30. It all averages out to +whatever.

For temps by latitude/region this source seems ok on a quick search https://scied.ucar.edu/interactive/compare-climates-regional...

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#7

Post by defrost » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 2:53 AM UTC

Madmallard wrote: post #4

Is the major issue here that 3 degrees Celsius is like an average so all the hot tropics places just become uninhabitable whereas temperature rises are more moderated in higher latitudes? Also how much faster and higher will that number go with all the data centers? Can't imagine it not just getting worse.

One major issue is the extreme difficulty of being precise about tipping points.

Eg: Have you seen a train derail? A couple of degrees of tilt - nothing .. and then .. whoops.

The global climate has been 'stable' about mean values for the bulk of human written history and development of urban civilisations. The planet now hosts 7 billion+ people, largely urban, and feed by a century of stable agriculture patterns write large.

The disruption of that will have a major impact across the human population of the planet.

The tipping points, when they come, are related to the significant loss of polar ice, and the beginning of positive feedback of atmospheric insulation factors other than CO2.

Melting ice, the transformation from near zero degree ice to near zero degree water, takes up a large amount of the energy from the sun trapped by increasing insulation. The energy used to melt X tonnes of ice, if no ice can be melted, will instead raise the temperature of X tonnes of water by some 66 degrees C (or there abouts - worth looking it up exactly).

Increased land and sea surface temperatures releases methane from peat bogs and tundras, and increases the water vapour content of the lower atmosphere.

Both of these things increase the insulation factor of the atmosphere to a greater degree than CO2.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#8

Post by cebert » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 3:01 AM UTC

If we don’t do something about this, I fear future generations will not view us in a positive light.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#9

Post by danielheath » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 3:04 AM UTC

Madmallard wrote: post #4

Is the major issue here that 3 degrees Celsius is like an average so all the hot tropics places just become uninhabitable whereas temperature rises are more moderated in higher latitudes? Also how much faster and higher will that number go with all the data centers? Can't imagine it not just getting worse.

Among _many_ other things, 3 degrees Celsius globally means more evaporation over oceans, which makes the air denser.

Denser air carries more momentum, which means more frequent (and more severe) hurricanes.

Re: Global Warming at 3 °C by 2050? What's Behind the New German Climate Warning

#10

Post by leonidasv » Wed, Jul 15, 2026, 3:04 AM UTC

This is the most important part most people don't get:

> And what would 3 °C mean for Germany?

> FB: In summer, meteorological records could reach up to 50 °C. Three degrees of global warming does not mean hot days will just be 3 or 4 degrees hotter. It could mean up to 10 degrees hotter. We would also face much longer droughts.

3°C warming implies summer days can get 10°C hotter. This is nightmare scenario.